Today in Analytics...

slugboy

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I do have a little love in my heart for Hawaii (and I miss their name of the “Rainbows”).

Western Kentucky crushed them. I'm still hoping that Timmy Chang gets them going.


It's a Western Kentucky stats site. It's worth the click just to see the stats and charts she put together
 

slugboy

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Updated composite ratings
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rodandanga

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I do have a little love in my heart for Hawaii (and I miss their name of the “Rainbows”).

Western Kentucky crushed them. I'm still hoping that Timmy Chang gets them going.


It's a Western Kentucky stats site. It's worth the click just to see the stats and charts she put together
Hawaii is an underratedly tough job. IMO, Aloha stadium got condemned and they are playing home games in the soccer stadium.
 

slugboy

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It looks like we are slightly behind Troy here and worst in the ACC. Ole Miss is in the blue section.
Two weeks in, we’re still influenced by last year’s data—both for Ole Miss and us. However, Duke has moved up. We haven’t improved over expectations yet (and may have declined)
The stats from the Clemson and WCU games are more useful right now. So is the game film
 

slugboy

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For today’s game (Go Jackets!)

Ole Miss has overachieved on defense so far. We’ve underachieved vs Vegas expectations on offense
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Tweet was deleted, so maybe an error?
 
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slugboy

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I’m not trying to kick a team—our team—while they’re down, but we’ve been underperforming low expectations

 

slugboy

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Yet another view. When you adjust for the difficulty of our opponents, we look better, but we're still in the wrong part of the chart.

 

ibeattetris

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Yet another view. When you adjust for the difficulty of our opponents, we look better, but we're still in the wrong part of the chart.

Honestly, I like this better since it's EPA instead of yards per play

UCF game kind of highlighted that yard per play can be somewhat problematic taken in complete vacuum
 

slugboy

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Honestly, I like this better since it's EPA instead of yards per play

UCF game kind of highlighted that yard per play can be somewhat problematic taken in complete vacuum

And that makes our offense read as a little worse, and our defense a little better, which matches the eye-test.

Colorado is a train wreck in both charts.
 

ibeattetris

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And that makes our offense read as a little worse, and our defense a little better, which matches the eye-test.

Colorado is a train wreck in both charts.
What I like about EPA/play is that is kind of encapsulate yards per play, points per play, and drive success into a single metric. Being more explosive (yards per play) will increase your EPA in the event that drives result in scores, rewarding the yards gained with the amount of points scored.

It also solves the problem of quantifying the impact of different drive length in pts/drive given explosive drives are better from a variance perspective than requiring consistent long drives.
 

slugboy

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And, an ACC highlighted version…

Edited to add: If you drew a diagonal line through most of the ACC teams, you could actually see how the “circle of suck” works.

Also, as of week four, is NCST the best ACC team? It looks like they are. Clemson’s hope is that they weren’t really awake until last week, and they’re suddenly turning a corner and finding themselves.
 
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slugboy

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So, we've just had a bunch of EPA and yardage charts that make it look like NCST is even or ahead of Clemson for this weekend. Here's a beta rank model that favors Clemson by more than 8. It's just one data point out of about 65 this weekend, but we can see which prediction works out.

 
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