The widening gap of conference revenue streams

[Techster]

I wrote in another thread that end goal here for conferences is mega expansion (SEC and B1G will be the biggest engines pulling the conference trains), all driven by a changing revenue streams. The SEC has already acquired two of the biggest chips in the college game (Texas, Oklahoma), and will most likely be hyper aggressive once member ACC schools and PAC12 schools are approaching the end of their media rights contracts with their respective conferences. There's a long game here, and college sports is on notice. Today, another tea leaf has dropped:



Say what you want about Radakovich, but he's probably one of the best ADs in terms of understanding the ever shifting college sports landscape. Radakovich is reportedly the one that led the talks with GT ultimately receiving a B1G bid in the last round of expansion (which we foolishly turned down). I think there's a BIG reason why he left Clemson for Miami, and it has to do with Miami's vision for next round of conference mega expansion. Make no mistake, the ACC is dead man walking, and it's about to be gutted with the B1G and SEC poaching its members once the media rights contracts are expired.

I see ESPN and Fox becoming an entity much like the NFL where they control conferences and products in order to beef up their subscriber fees. College sports is one of the most lucrative assets in terms of loyal fans, which means a more loyal subscriber base. Big companies and leagues have taken a "hands off" approach to NIL, but the day of the two figuring out a lucrative partnership that trickles down to schools and SAs is nearing. Remember, there's a clause in NIL contracts where SAs can't endorse a brand that conflicts with a school's business arrangements (maybe conferences as well, but I'm not 100%). What if a conference and major company agree to pay a QB/RB/LB to attend a member institution? That day is coming soon.

I think ultimately, college sports will end up being a pay for play model of some kind. It's bound to be a de facto pro league with ESPN and Fox leading the push.

 

[WreckinGT]

I wrote in another thread that end goal here for conferences is mega expansion (SEC and B1G will be the biggest engines pulling the conference trains), all driven by a changing revenue streams. The SEC has already acquired two of the biggest chips in the college game (Texas, Oklahoma), and will most likely be hyper aggressive once member ACC schools and PAC12 schools are approaching the end of their media rights contracts with their respective conferences. There's a long game here, and college sports is on notice. Today, another tea leaf has dropped:



Say what you want about Radakovich, but he's probably one of the best ADs in terms of understanding the ever shifting college sports landscape. Radakovich is reportedly the one that led the talks with GT ultimately receiving a B1G bid in the last round of expansion (which we foolishly turned down). I think there's a BIG reason why he left Clemson for Miami, and it has to do with Miami's vision for next round of conference mega expansion. Make no mistake, the ACC is dead man walking, and it's about to be gutted with the B1G and SEC poaching its members once the media rights contracts are expired.

I see ESPN and Fox becoming an entity much like the NFL where they control conferences and products in order to beef up their subscriber fees. College sports is one of the most lucrative assets in terms of loyal fans, which means a more loyal subscriber base. Big companies and leagues have taken a "hands off" approach to NIL, but the day of the two figuring out a lucrative partnership that trickles down to schools and SAs is nearing. Remember, there's a clause in NIL contracts where SAs can't endorse a brand that conflicts with a school's business arrangements (maybe conferences as well, but I'm not 100%). What if a conference and major company agree to pay a QB/RB/LB to attend a member institution? That day is coming soon.

I think ultimately, college sports will end up being a pay for play model of some kind. It's bound to be a de facto pro league with ESPN and Fox leading the push.

This path would make college football far less popular and far less lucrative. That may not matter to ESPN though. They may be looking to cut content if their intention is to go full streaming.

 

[CEB]

This path would make college football far less popular and far less lucrative. That may not matter to ESPN though. They may be looking to cut content if their intention is to go full streaming.

I completely agree. This doesn’t sound like a good move to me. But then again, everyday I realize that I’m a little older, a little ornerier, and that most of my opinions are shared by fewer and fewer people.

 

[Techster]

I wrote in another thread that end goal here for conferences is mega expansion (SEC and B1G will be the biggest engines pulling the conference trains), all driven by a changing revenue streams. The SEC has already acquired two of the biggest chips in the college game (Texas, Oklahoma), and will most likely be hyper aggressive once member ACC schools and PAC12 schools are approaching the end of their media rights contracts with their respective conferences. There's a long game here, and college sports is on notice. Today, another tea leaf has dropped:



Say what you want about Radakovich, but he's probably one of the best ADs in terms of understanding the ever shifting college sports landscape. Radakovich is reportedly the one that led the talks with GT ultimately receiving a B1G bid in the last round of expansion (which we foolishly turned down). I think there's a BIG reason why he left Clemson for Miami, and it has to do with Miami's vision for next round of conference mega expansion. Make no mistake, the ACC is dead man walking, and it's about to be gutted with the B1G and SEC poaching its members once the media rights contracts are expired.

I see ESPN and Fox becoming an entity much like the NFL where they control conferences and products in order to beef up their subscriber fees. College sports is one of the most lucrative assets in terms of loyal fans, which means a more loyal subscriber base. Big companies and leagues have taken a "hands off" approach to NIL, but the day of the two figuring out a lucrative partnership that trickles down to schools and SAs is nearing. Remember, there's a clause in NIL contracts where SAs can't endorse a brand that conflicts with a school's business arrangements (maybe conferences as well, but I'm not 100%). What if a conference and major company agree to pay a QB/RB/LB to attend a member institution? That day is coming soon.

I think ultimately, college sports will end up being a pay for play model of some kind. It's bound to be a de facto pro league with ESPN and Fox leading the push.

Following up on this post, if you want to see how bad the economics are of GT turning down the B1G, here's a great (or is it sad from our perspective) graph of how wide the chasm will get over the years:




Kinda tough to ask fans to bail out poor decisions by our decision makers when we had the opportunity to increase revenue almost twofold.

 

[GTBandit22]

Following up on this post, if you want to see how bad the economics are of GT turning down the B1G, here's a great (or is it sad from our perspective) graph of how wide the chasm will get over the years:




Kinda tough to ask fans to bail out poor decisions by our decision makers when we had the opportunity to increase revenue almost twofold.

I hope I’m not looking back on that as the decision that killed tech football.
The ACC has done nothing to help Tech and will continue to do nothing, the B1G might not either but we would be straight paid

 

[RonJohn]

Kinda tough to ask fans to bail out poor decisions by our decision makers when we had the opportunity to increase revenue almost twofold.

It would still be up to the fans. The projected difference in payouts in 2029 is sizable. However, to see the difference in what fans provide take a look at 2022. The mutts are projected to get $24 million more from the SEC than GT gets from the ACC. If you add $24 million to GT's athletic revenue and budget, you would still need another $50 million to match the mutts. The difference in fan support (tickets/merch/donations/etc) is more than double the difference in conference payout. Being in the Big10 would help, but we don't need the fans to "bail out" GT athletics. We need the fans to at least do one half of what the mutt fans do.

 

[Techster]

It would still be up to the fans. The projected difference in payouts in 2029 is sizable. However, to see the difference in what fans provide take a look at 2022. The mutts are projected to get $24 million more from the SEC than GT gets from the ACC. If you add $24 million to GT's athletic revenue and budget, you would still need another $50 million to match the mutts. The difference in fan support (tickets/merch/donations/etc) is more than double the difference in conference payout. Being in the Big10 would help, but we don't need the fans to "bail out" GT athletics. We need the fans to at least do one half of what the mutt fans do.

Who do you think our administration went to to payoff Chan Gailey/Paul Hewitt/Brian Gregory? You're strictly looking at this from a revenue standpoint, but fans and big donors have been subsidizing/bailing out bad contracts for a while now. Who do you think TStan will ask money from when it's time CGC has to be paid to leave early?

So yes, it will be fans (big donors are fans) who will bail out our athletic decision makers again.

Also, look at the $20+ million a year revenue gap between ACC and B1G per team. You don't think that extra $20+ million doesn't help with offsetting any bad hires, and helps add to the coaching salary pool? How about adding to our recruiting budget? How much does it help to have better coaches and a bigger recruiting budget? You think that GT would put a better product on the field instead of having to hire from the coaching bargain bin for guys like CGC and Brian Gregory?

It's all become a vicious cycle: GT turns down a conference that would give us an extra $20+ million a year, have to ask fans to help buyout a bad coach, don't have the means to hire a good coach or expand recruiting budget, so we hire mediocre to bad coaches who eventually will need to be fired because the product sucks, so we have to ask fans again to bail them out. Rinse and repeat.

 

[TooTall]

Following up on this post, if you want to see how bad the economics are of GT turning down the B1G, here's a great (or is it sad from our perspective) graph of how wide the chasm will get over the years:




Kinda tough to ask fans to bail out poor decisions by our decision makers when we had the opportunity to increase revenue almost twofold.

I wish we would have joined the BIG10, but, on the other hand, what has that done for Maryland? Sure they get the TV money, but are they any closer to winning championships, conference or national? Do we want to be middle or low man on the totem pole, just for extra cash? Seems like we would be wasting more it.

 

[wrmathis]

I wish we would have joined the BIG10, but, on the other hand, what has that done for Maryland? Sure they get the TV money, but are they any closer to winning championships, conference or national? Do we want to be middle or low man on the totem pole, just for extra cash? Seems like we would be wasting more it.

well, right now, Tech is the middle/low man on the totem pole in football with out the extra cash.

 

[RonJohn]

Who do you think our administration went to to payoff Chan Gailey/Paul Hewitt/Brian Gregory? You're strictly looking at this from a revenue standpoint, but fans and big donors have been subsidizing/bailing out bad contracts for a while now. Who do you think TStan will ask money from when it's time CGC has to be paid to leave early?

So yes, it will be fans (big donors are fans) who will bail out our athletic decision makers again.

Also, look at the $20+ million a year revenue gap between ACC and B1G per team. You don't think that extra $20+ million doesn't help with offsetting any bad hires, and helps add to the coaching salary pool? How about adding to our recruiting budget? How much does it help to have better coaches and a bigger recruiting budget? You think that GT would put a better product on the field instead of having to hire from the coaching bargain bin for guys like CGC and Brian Gregory?

It's all become a vicious cycle: GT turns down a conference that would give us an extra $20+ million a year, have to ask fans to help buyout a bad coach, don't have the means to hire a good coach or expand recruiting budget, so we hire mediocre to bad coaches who eventually will need to be fired because the product sucks, so we have to ask fans again to bail them out. Rinse and repeat.

I am not saying that the $20 million difference between the ACC and Big10 makes no difference. I am not saying that the $24 million between the ACC and SEC makes no difference. I am saying that the difference between fan contributions is more than double the difference in conference payouts. The revenue for the mutts is around $75 million more than that of GT. The conference revenue makes up about $24 million of that while the fans make up about $50 million of that.

I would word your statement a little bit differently:

It's all become a vicious cycle: GT fans provide $50 million a year less than the mutts fans, so we have to ask large donors to help buyout a bad coach, don't have the means to hire a good coach or expand recruiting budget, so we hire mediocre to bad coaches who eventually will need to be fired because the product sucks, so we have to continually ask fans to do what all the other fans around us do, but they will not. Rinse and repeat.

 

[WreckinGT]

I wish we would have joined the BIG10, but, on the other hand, what has that done for Maryland? Sure they get the TV money, but are they any closer to winning championships, conference or national? Do we want to be middle or low man on the totem pole, just for extra cash? Seems like we would be wasting more it.

No they aren't because it turns out getting more money and still having less money than everyone you play against isn't really much of a strategy. If we could move to the Big 10, get their money and still only play ACC teams then that might work. I don't think they would let us do that though.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I wish we would have joined the BIG10, but, on the other hand, what has that done for Maryland? Sure they get the TV money, but are they any closer to winning championships, conference or national? Do we want to be middle or low man on the totem pole, just for extra cash? Seems like we would be wasting more it.

Well, the days of a school competing for championships of any kind without an actual plan and backing of the school are long over so conference affiliation for GT doesn’t matter. GT is reaping decades of letting the old fans die and not backfilling them with a younger generation. GT decided it would rather bring in students who could care less about the state of Georgia or sports than be a state school. The payoff to that plan is now bearing fruit with empty stadiums, low level cheap coaches, and a fanbase that doesn’t make a peep other than a few hundred diehards on message boards. Our athletic programs have entered a new era of indifference and we have become a grifter program taking conference money to be an easy win. At best we’ll get a UNC type upset once a year in between the beat downs.

 

[g0lftime]

So what has all that SEC money done for Vanderbilt? They are good in baseball, golf, and probably tennis. Football and basketball are bottom feeders. They used to be decent in BB but SEC $ hasn't kept them competitive. It's more about academics. ND is about the only school with any academic integrity that is somewhat competitive in FB and they have their own TV contract. Michigan is a respected academic school but lots of majors to hide players and they got clobbered in the playoff last year. I agree money is part of the problem but our curriculum and rigorous classwork lowers our recruiting pool significantly. We are in a knife fight with one arm tied behind us.

 

[UgaBlows]

So what has all that SEC money done for Vanderbilt? They are good in baseball, golf, and probably tennis. Football and basketball are bottom feeders. They used to be decent in BB but SEC $ hasn't kept them competitive. It's more about academics. ND is about the only school with any academic integrity that is somewhat competitive in FB and they have their own TV contract. Michigan is a respected academic school but lots of majors to hide players and they got clobbered in the playoff last year. I agree money is part of the problem but our curriculum and rigorous classwork lowers our recruiting pool significantly. We are in a knife fight with one arm tied behind us.

Essentially, We are basically doomed to bottom-feeder status/mediocrity no matter what conference we are in because of our small and cheap fanbase, there’s not much that can save us from our fate. All we can do is look forward to those once (roughly) per decade magical seasons and occasionally beating uga (Hopefully that all continues at some point). After the CGC experiment is over i hope the powers that be say to hell with it and hire Chadwell from Coastal Carolina....great coaching (that nobody else in P5 wants) and a unique offense are our best hope to rise above the dregs of the ACC.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

No they aren't because it turns out getting more money and still having less money than everyone you play against isn't really much of a strategy. If we could move to the Big 10, get their money and still only play ACC teams then that might work. I don't think they would let us do that though.

I don't know...maybe, we ought to try it. Everyone else is getting away with cheating on a massive scale why not us? What do we have to lose? (TIC)

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I don't know...maybe, we ought to try it. Everyone else is getting away with cheating on a massive scale why not us? What do we have to lose? (TIC)

Yeah, we have refused to play the game and have gone from a national brand 70 years ago to a bottom feeder program. And we don’t have to cheat anymore. Just pay and bring in players for a year or two.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

So what has all that SEC money done for Vanderbilt? They are good in baseball, golf, and probably tennis. Football and basketball are bottom feeders. They used to be decent in BB but SEC $ hasn't kept them competitive. It's more about academics. ND is about the only school with any academic integrity that is somewhat competitive in FB and they have their own TV contract. Michigan is a respected academic school but lots of majors to hide players and they got clobbered in the playoff last year. I agree money is part of the problem but our curriculum and rigorous classwork lowers our recruiting pool significantly. We are in a knife fight with one arm tied behind us.

This is hogwash. With the portal, academics mean nothing. All our school has to do is outbid for players and keep them eligible for the fall semester and then let them leave. The days of worrying about academics at GT are long gone. To say our class work limits our recruiting pool is just ludicrous these days. We accept players every cycle who should never be allowed in a GT classroom if you want to talk academics. What limits our recruiting pool is that we do not win games and our reputation as not caring about losing.

And the fact that schools like GT, Vandy and others have allowed academics to interfere with their sports programs is their own fault. You make it sound like what GT has been doing is honorable and the right way. It’s the absolute wrong way and has created a loser mentality when people think of GT. Losing in football and hoops has done nothing to enhance our institution. It is not admirable. Look at UGA. Their academic rankings have soared because the perception of their school is that of a winner. People like winners and support winners.

 

[JacketOff]

How many times can you write the same 4 paragraph essay before it gets old

 

[SteamWhistle]

Should’ve joined BIG10 when we had the chance…

 

[RamblinRed]

UGA's academic reputation has very little to do with its athletic success.
It is primarily due to the HOPE scholarship which is keeping alot more of the best students in-state and they mostly end up at UGA. Their academic rankings went up while their football program was relatively stagnant in terms of performance.

GT as an institution has already largely made the decision that they are primarily a MIT, Cal Tech type school and that is largely who they see themselves competing against for students. For those that love GT sports, that tough to deal with, but iiwii.

Also, the APR still exists so if you start going the route of keeping someone eligible for one semester and then let them leave it will hit you eventually.
Academics are still an issue in recruiting, including portal recruiting, for GT. I know of at least 2 potential basketball transfers that went elsewhere because they would have had to take a bunch of classes to get eligible at GT due to what it would except as transfer credits. Not surprisingly those individuals chose other schools rather than GT. It is unlikely money would have changed that decision.