The Key To Beating Duke

[GTNavyNuke]

Turnovers.

Duke is 126th with 18 offensive turnovers. http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort04.html

Duke won the two games where they were +2 (ND & Army) and played L'Ville tough at +1. The rest of the D1 games, Flukies lost. http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/team/193/turnovermargin/gamelog.html

We need to create turnovers, and we have been awful at that, 111th with only 6 defensive turnovers all year. http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort03.html

This game will be one of a weak force meeting a movable object.

 

[tmhunter52]

We can't get opposing offenses off the field. We are allowing too many 3rd down conversions. If we need to create turnovers to win, we are screwed.

 

[Vespidae]

We need to create turnovers, and we have been awful at that, 111th with only 6 defensive turnovers all year.

Ironically, in studies at both the college and pro level, turnovers seldom correlate with wins. The reason is that turnovers are unpredictable (1) and tend to even out over time (2). Now, that's not to say don't take advantage of them ... it is just very difficult to design a game plan around a somewhat random outcome.

Better to focus on three and outs and pressuring the QB. That will definitely improve field position and if you get an interception ... all the better.

 

[iceeater1969]

Ironically, in studies at both the college and pro level, turnovers seldom correlate with wins. The reason is that turnovers are unpredictable (1) and tend to even out over time (2). Now, that's not to say don't take advantage of them ... it is just very difficult to design a game plan around a somewhat random outcome.

Better to focus on three and outs and pressuring the QB. That will definitely improve field position and if you get an interception ... all the better.

But we haven't done any of the three metrics mentioned.
ND sat in soft zone and tall qb thru to tall tight end at will. ND has athletes that are a step faster than duke and gt.

I am hopeful we suprise them with gap rush and man coverage.

If duke plays base defense i think our O will score and any turn over we get will be like a dagger.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Do you mean that turnovers don't correlate for games to be played or that turnovers don't correlate for games which have been played? I think you only mean for future games.

I agree future turnovers tend to regress to the mean, mostly for fumbles and less so for interceptions. I may have it backward but after the 2014 season we talked a lot about this particular subject and the strong regression to the mean. We were really good (lucky) in 2014 with turnovers and that, in hindsight, was one of the keys to the season. (Ga Southern, Pitt, ......)

 

[iceeater1969]

Navy, does every team have its own mean ?
The mean would seem to be = f @(dependent on players, players coached up, style of defense)?

Perhaps the new offenses have cut down on turn overs.


I like the VT defense and special teams as they have built in swagger . I wonder how our mean and their mean compare over coaches tenure.

 

[33jacket]

If we cant stop dukes 20 and 11 counter and inside zone power plays we are screwed. Thats the key for me. Stop that. We win.

 

[IronJacket7]

Score more points than Duke does.

 

[Ibeeballin]

If we cant stop dukes 20 and 11 counter and inside zone power plays we are screwed. Thats the key for me. Stop that. We win.

Major key. We can't let those plays go 4-5yds on 1st & 2nd down. We have to be willing to stop them with 8 and utilize some outside run blitzes which I believe none of blitzes come from.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Duke > Pitt IMO so we best bring our A game.

 

[00Burdell]

Is it reasonable to think (as I do at the moment) that we are strong enough in the secondary to leave them in man on occasion to allow overloading the box?

If so, I highly recommend it.

 

[IronJacket7]

Duke > Pitt IMO so we best bring our A game.

Remember the years when Duke game was a gimme?

 

[presjacket]

Remember the years when Duke game was a gimme?

I liked those years.

 

[Sean311]

I think this might be the breakout game that will set the tone for the rest of the season. We win 42-14.

 

[RonJohn]

Do you mean that turnovers don't correlate for games to be played or that turnovers don't correlate for games which have been played? I think you only mean for future games.

I agree future turnovers tend to regress to the mean, mostly for fumbles and less so for interceptions. I may have it backward but after the 2014 season we talked a lot about this particular subject and the strong regression to the mean. We were really good (lucky) in 2014 with turnovers and that, in hindsight, was one of the keys to the season. (Ga Southern, Pitt, ......)

I believe that our "luck" in 2014 for forced turnovers came after CPJ told the defense to get off of the field. If I remember to interviews correctly, he told the defense that they could: Stop the team, Let the team score, or get a turnover. He wasn't as concerned even if they scored because the offense was playing so well, he was confident that GT would score. The defense played more aggressively the second half of that season with good results.

 

[grandpa jacket]

Turnovers.

Duke is 126th with 18 offensive turnovers. http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort04.html

Duke won the two games where they were +2 (ND & Army) and played L'Ville tough at +1. The rest of the D1 games, Flukies lost. http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/team/193/turnovermargin/gamelog.html

We need to create turnovers, and we have been awful at that, 111th with only 6 defensive turnovers all year. http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort03.html

This game will be one of a weak force meeting a movable object.

The whole key is for us to possess the football with a sizeable TOP advantage.

 

[jeffgt14]

Our D usually plays Duke well. They don’t really beat anyone with the pass. Their entire offense is the zone read used to set up a deep ball every now and then. Unlike most zone read O’s, Duke’s is more of a power type than speed so we usually contain them alright. The key to winning will be our ability to execute our Offense. The last time we beat Duke we threw for like 400 yards.

 

[tmhunter52]

If PJ Davis is not back in the lineup, it will be a long, long day.

 

[tech_wreck47]

Ironically, in studies at both the college and pro level, turnovers seldom correlate with wins. The reason is that turnovers are unpredictable (1) and tend to even out over time (2). Now, that's not to say don't take advantage of them ... it is just very difficult to design a game plan around a somewhat random outcome.

Better to focus on three and outs and pressuring the QB. That will definitely improve field position and if you get an interception ... all the better.

Turnovers are what majorly helped GT in 2014. Yes some turnovers are unpredictable, but you can deffenitly create them with knowing or having a knack to strip the ball or the ability to bait a QB into a throw ect.

 

[SteamWhistle]

Duke is trash.

Played Louisville good after a bye week when they lost to the #3 Team.

They will try to run up the middle all day. Should be no problem if we Blitz and Press like last week.
Play Action and 3rd Down are my only worries.

Offense should go for at least 300 on the ground maybe 100 passing.

They do run a lot of Tunnle Screens, they killed Louisville with those in the first half.

Duke shouldn't be able to hang with us, I see us winning big. Killing them with the Rocket Toss all day.