The Future

[InsideLB]

I’m hoping all of this is a bad memory one day. But in what year do we turn the corner? I’m hoping next year.

I'd say when we turn the corner in the trenches. It's a game of the trenches. Win up front and you usually win the game.

The offensive line has made strides but clearly isn't there. Our best OL this year is a 1-yr rental. But Jordan Williams is clearly the real deal (starting and holding his own as a tr-FR). OL Recruiting has looked good so far, and Key is a proven offensive line coach recruits want to play for. But I am no sure when the thing starts gathering critical mass. Gotta figure it will eventually. Transfers could help plug the gaps. Maybe Cochran will come next year.

DL is much less sure. That the walk-on DT Brooks and DE Ryans have developed and that Jordan Domineck is coming along looks good for Marco Coleman. On the other hand the walk-ons also speak to how bare the cupboard is on the DL. With 2 rush DE's committed from the GA top 50 so far and another rivals 5.6 DE this class, clearly some help will ultimately be on the way. That on top of 5.6 guys in Kennard and Wright, and 5.7 Ivey look promising. But unless you are grabbing 4 or 5-star guys they usually need time to develop.

DT also questionable. Stone and Johnson are 2 big dudes from last class (5.6 and 5.3 respectively). Biggers (5.2) in the current class will likely need time like TJ Barnes did. So some size coming but pretty green. Maybe Jahaziel comes back next year after a year of development and is good. Losing Chimezda hurt, but maybe he can come back strong. Griffin and Douse show flashes but are undersized. Lockhart is a big and was a 5.7. Recruiting hasn't been as good at DT as at DE. Just depends on the how the guys develop and if we can bring in some good transfers and maybe some 5.7 or higher DT types.

Generally I think we are playing better and getting more competitive and this will continue as the lines get rebuilt. And we may still be 1-3 years off before winning the Coastal is realistic. Wouldn't be surprised to see us be a .500 type team next year and 8-4 the next, then have some pretty good years.

 

[awbuzz]

It was 1 AM. I live in Jackson Wy

Damn! Wish I'd have known then. Was out in Jackson all last week to do some hiking in the Tetons and visit Yellowstone.
Would have enjoyed meeting you.

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

At GT, the equation for success will always look something like this:

Talent % less than other "good" P5 team + coaching of GT % better than other "good" P5 team = level of success

When PJ was here, against the best teams, Clemson (last few years) and UGAG, the talent difference % was probably 40-50%, so coaching had to be that much better or more on game day to have a legit shot of winning (assuming all else being equal)

If CGC can get us to where we are only 15-20% less talent, it will still require better coaching, just not as big of a differential.

This is the uphill battle to GT getting to the top. It will always exist to some degree - the coach we are looking for (And I hope we have found him - but at this point, I have doubts) can get our recruiting in the top 25 consistently, but still out coach the factories in game prep and on game day. (also in development of players) I realize he is no where near reducing the total talent gap yet, so I should hold out until then to decide - still probably 2-3 years out.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

We are coming along. We’ve lost two games because of turnovers not because we were physically beat down. Yes, our defense got burned by both UCF and Syracuse but that‘s nothing new around here the last 12 years. As Collins continues to recruit us out of the size hole we’ll be competitive. The days of watching our players manhandled by half the teams on our schedule are over. With the play makers we have on offense I feel like we can score on anyone. I haven't felt that way since the Orange Bowl.

 

[Buzztheirazz]

Damn! Wish I'd have known then. Was out in Jackson all last week to do some hiking in the Tetons and visit Yellowstone.
Would have enjoyed meeting you.

Nice! We have had an unusually busy summer due to the fact that ppl can’t fly out of country. Lots of honeymoons and people road tripping.

Have a few more days before the off season but I’ll be in ATL for louisville game, St. Simons for my wedding, parents place in Florida to swim with manatees, Puerto Vallarta/Sayulita for Honeymoon, back to ATL for ND, up to Ohio to pickup our cat and then back to Jackson Over the next two months. if anyone comes out to Jackson to ski this winter LMK!!!

 

[billga99]

It would also help if we didn't line up tough out of conference schedules. With Georgia always on the schedule, it would be helpful to not line up other tough OOC opponents. 2021 @Notre Dame + GA, 2022 Ole Miss and @UCF + @GA, 2023 @Ole Miss + GA, 2024 Notre Dame + @GA. That means we have 2 to 3 tough out of conference opponents each of the next 4 seasons. If you look at most of the other top teams, they normally schedule 1 tough out of conference and then load in 3 very winnable games. With Clemson also on the schedule as well, I just think we are making it tougher on ourselves. For those who think we should schedule strong out of conference opponents, it makes it tougher to get to the record we want and also to get more home games.

 

[ChicagobasedJacket]

It would also help if we didn't line up tough out of conference schedules. With Georgia always on the schedule, it would be helpful to not line up other tough OOC opponents. 2021 @Notre Dame + GA, 2022 Ole Miss and @UCF + @GA, 2023 @Ole Miss + GA, 2024 Notre Dame + @GA. That means we have 2 to 3 tough out of conference opponents each of the next 4 seasons. If you look at most of the other top teams, they normally schedule 1 tough out of conference and then load in 3 very winnable games. With Clemson also on the schedule as well, I just think we are making it tougher on ourselves. For those who think we should schedule strong out of conference opponents, it makes it tougher to get to the record we want and also to get more home games.

Agreed. We should honestly only have the uga on our ooc but then the stands are empty if we don’t play a decent team, which leads to home and home setups

 

[takethepoints]

I think we will have a better balance of players in a few years. However, Collins will have to step it up if we are gonna compete.
We currently have ZERO commitments from Georgia top thirty players. IMO kids are waiting to see if the hype matches the results.
So far, there hasn't been anything on the game day coaching to make kids take notice.

Bingo. Most of the posts above are assuming a steady state in all phases of the program, win or lose. This is nonsense. If we continue to win 3 - 4 games a year for another 2 - 3 years there won't be a good recruit that will touch us with a 10 foot poll. In order to stay his full 7 years, I think Collins has - perhaps - 2 more years to turn the win - loss column in Tech's favor. If he can't, then he'll be gone, contract or not.

Query: can he do that? I'd say the odds are about 50 - 50% today and will depend on a maturing/changed coaching staff. If our coaches get better or get replaced, then I think Collins can win at Tech. I don't doubt his ability to run a program. But I don't think it will depend on him in the short run. My guess is that he knows that and is thinking hard on the subject. Right Now.

 

[DaltonJacket]

Agreed. We should honestly only have the uga on our ooc but then the stands are empty if we don’t play a decent team, which leads to home and home setups

Give it a few years of 8-4 or better records and I bet the attendance improves regardless of opponents. People want to jump on a team that wins. At the end of each season they see a final record and it doesn't matter if you beat Tennessee or Tennessee St. as long as the record is 9-3 and you end up ranked. I sometimes think we schedule like a G5 team that needs a payday instead of a team in a P5 conference.

 

[RamblinCharger]

The issue I have is watching a team like Arkansas, who hasn’t won a conference game in 3 years, get a new coach, and look like a totally different team in the first season. We are in year two and we still look really awful at times, and it’s not the players, it’s fundamentals. We have a different set of challenges that Arkansas doesn’t face, but our talent should match up with USF and Syracuse. Arkansas looked competent against Georgia even though they have inferior talent. Having the guys ready to play falls on the coaching staff and they haven’t had them ready to play the last two weeks.

 

[gtrower]

I agree with you in that we will have to get some of those Top 30 big fish to regularly compete for championships.

In our recent history we have been getting zero commitments in the Georgia top 50. This year we have three. The point of my post was—irrespective of whether Collins succeeds or not—at the very least our talent will be better than it has been. S&C also doing good things as evidenced by physical development/weight gain. So it's nice to at least be headed in the right direction from a talent perspective.

Coaching we will have to see.

Not to discount your post as it’s not like we were reigning in a bunch of top guys in recent years, but perusing 247 composite ratings for our classes shows we’ve pulled at least one Top 50 GA recruit every year since at least 2005 (where I stopped looking).

 

[takethepoints]

Give it a few years of 8-4 or better records and I bet the attendance improves regardless of opponents. People want to jump on a team that wins. At the end of each season they see a final record and it doesn't matter if you beat Tennessee or Tennessee St. as long as the record is 9-3 and you end up ranked. I sometimes think we schedule like a G5 team that needs a payday instead of a team in a P5 conference.

Bingo again. I've been saying here for years that Tech should imitate Johnny Vaught's schedules when he was at Ol' Miss: 9 patsies and Alabama. Everybody at Ol' Miss looks back to the Vaught years as the golden era of their football program. Nobody gives a hoot about who the Rebs played; all they remember is Caught always won at least 8 games a year and led them to a national championship. I can almost guarantee that the same would happen at Tech, no matter who the coach is, with the same results. Of course, it was easier then because the teams were so much more unequal and Tech is in the ACC, but the principle holds. We ought to go with it.

 

[JacketOff]

Give it a few years of 8-4 or better records and I bet the attendance improves regardless of opponents. People want to jump on a team that wins. At the end of each season they see a final record and it doesn't matter if you beat Tennessee or Tennessee St. as long as the record is 9-3 and you end up ranked. I sometimes think we schedule like a G5 team that needs a payday instead of a team in a P5 conference.

Do you really think as many people would show up to watch Tech play UAB as they would Auburn? Or hell, even somebody like Kentucky for that matter? That’s ridiculous, and you know it’s not true. People don’t even show up to the lower tier ACC games. Nobody wants to watch Duke, or Boston College. In 2014, sitting at 6-2, only 46k tickets were sold to a 3:30 game vs. a 4-4 Virginia team. You think more people would’ve came if that was Northern Illinois?

It would also help if we didn't line up tough out of conference schedules. With Georgia always on the schedule, it would be helpful to not line up other tough OOC opponents. 2021 @Notre Dame + GA, 2022 Ole Miss and @UCF + @GA, 2023 @Ole Miss + GA, 2024 Notre Dame + @GA. That means we have 2 to 3 tough out of conference opponents each of the next 4 seasons. If you look at most of the other top teams, they normally schedule 1 tough out of conference and then load in 3 very winnable games. With Clemson also on the schedule as well, I just think we are making it tougher on ourselves. For those who think we should schedule strong out of conference opponents, it makes it tougher to get to the record we want and also to get more home games.

That does nobody any good. Especially when more teams are starting to schedule more P5 opponents OOC. The B1G, PAC 12, and Big 12 play 9 game conference schedules, and almost all of them play at least 1 other P5 school OOC. The ACC and SEC only play 8 conference games. Most schools have only had 1 P5 OOC game on their schedules for a while, but almost everyone else is starting to schedule 2 per year. That means most P5 teams are going to play 10 P5 games per year. If Tech ducks one of those games it will look bad, and it gives the fanbase one less game to actually get excited for.

Clemson’s OOC schedule through 2026 includes 2 games against Georgia, Notre Dame, and LSU in addition to South Carolina every year.

Georgia’s includes 2 games vs. Clemson and UCLA, and 1 each against Oregon and Oklahoma.

And it’s not just the elites scheduling P5 games, or top tier G5 games.

Mississippi State has 2 games with Memphis, Arizona, and Arizona State, and 1 with NC State and Minnesota

South Carolina doesn’t have complete schedules through 2026, but they still have games with North Carolina and Miami scheduled in addition to their Clemson game.

Speaking of North Carolina (a team also in a rebuild and a team we’ll be fighting with in the Coastal), they’ve got 3 games with Notre Dame, 2 with Minnesota and TCU, and 1 with UCF, Wake (counted as non-conference), and South Carolina.

Miami, the other Coastal team that Tech will be battling for the top with, has some unfinished schedules. But they play Alabama and Michigan State in 2021, and 2 games with Texas A&M, Florida, and Notre Dame, and 1 with South Carolina through 2026.

Scheduling will not be the problem going forward. Although Tech plays Clemson in conference every year, the OOC scheduling is very mild compared to many places.

 

[okiemon]

Do you really think as many people would show up to watch Tech play UAB as they would Auburn? Or hell, even somebody like Kentucky for that matter?

You bet they would. uGA fills it up for St Mary’s Sisters of the Weak, and so would we if we were considered a contender for the National Championship every year.

 

[JacketOff]

You bet they would. uGA fills it up for St Mary’s Sisters of the Weak, and so would we if we were considered a contender for the National Championship every year.

If you’ve ever seen them play a game vs. the Austin Play’s and Arkansas State’s of the world you would know that’s not true. They “sell out” every game, but they definitely don’t fill the stadium up every game. The demand for their tickets is so high that every game will be sold out, no matter the opponent. That’s just not the case with Tech. Bobby Dodd is guaranteed to sell out 1 game every 2 years, the UGA game. The Clemson game doesn’t even sell out anymore, but it is the only other game that sell north of 50k tickets. Miami and Florida State are the only 2 other games that might get to 50k. In 2009, Tech was 8-1 and ranked number 10 in the country. Wake Forest came to town for a 3:30 game. It wasn’t sold out. In fact, only 1 game sold out that year.... the UGA game.

In 2008, Tech was 4-1. The mighty Gardner Webb Bulldogs visited Bobby Dodd before a crowd of only 41k. 3 weeks later, Tech was 6-1 coming off a huge road win vs. Clemson. Ranked #21 facing Virginia, only 47k tickets were sold. The next week, #16 Florida State visited. A 6-2 GT team facing a ranked FSU. It had to sell out, right? Nope. But it did sell 53.5k of the 55k seats.

Not only does common sense tell you, but precedence shows that Tech will not sell out games against almost anybody but Georgia, and occasionally Clemson. No matter what Tech’s record has been, where we’re ranked, or what time the game is, people don’t show up to watch Tech play average to mediocre teams. The demand isn’t there.

 

[Milwaukee]

If you’ve ever seen them play a game vs. the Austin Play’s and Arkansas State’s of the world you would know that’s not true. They “sell out” every game, but they definitely don’t fill the stadium up every game. The demand for their tickets is so high that every game will be sold out, no matter the opponent. That’s just not the case with Tech. Bobby Dodd is guaranteed to sell out 1 game every 2 years, the UGA game. The Clemson game doesn’t even sell out anymore, but it is the only other game that sell north of 50k tickets. Miami and Florida State are the only 2 other games that might get to 50k. In 2009, Tech was 8-1 and ranked number 10 in the country. Wake Forest came to town for a 3:30 game. It wasn’t sold out. In fact, only 1 game sold out that year.... the UGA game.

In 2008, Tech was 4-1. The mighty Gardner Webb Bulldogs visited Bobby Dodd before a crowd of only 41k. 3 weeks later, Tech was 6-1 coming off a huge road win vs. Clemson. Ranked #21 facing Virginia, only 47k tickets were sold. The next week, #16 Florida State visited. A 6-2 GT team facing a ranked FSU. It had to sell out, right? Nope. But it did sell 53.5k of the 55k seats.

Not only does common sense tell you, but precedence shows that Tech will not sell out games against almost anybody but Georgia, and occasionally Clemson. No matter what Tech’s record has been, where we’re ranked, or what time the game is, people don’t show up to watch Tech play average to mediocre teams. The demand isn’t there.

We have to be good for several years in a row for that to even be accurate. It makes no sense to point out examples of one off years where we were surprisingly good and say “Look at that, in the middle of this good season we still didn’t draw well”. It doesn’t work like that. UGA has been consistently good for several years. We can get there.
Apples and oranges.

 

[takethepoints]

If you’ve ever seen them play a game vs. the Austin Play’s and Arkansas State’s of the world you would know that’s not true. They “sell out” every game, but they definitely don’t fill the stadium up every game. The demand for their tickets is so high that every game will be sold out, no matter the opponent. That’s just not the case with Tech. Bobby Dodd is guaranteed to sell out 1 game every 2 years, the UGA game. The Clemson game doesn’t even sell out anymore, but it is the only other game that sell north of 50k tickets. Miami and Florida State are the only 2 other games that might get to 50k. In 2009, Tech was 8-1 and ranked number 10 in the country. Wake Forest came to town for a 3:30 game. It wasn’t sold out. In fact, only 1 game sold out that year.... the UGA game.

In 2008, Tech was 4-1. The mighty Gardner Webb Bulldogs visited Bobby Dodd before a crowd of only 41k. 3 weeks later, Tech was 6-1 coming off a huge road win vs. Clemson. Ranked #21 facing Virginia, only 47k tickets were sold. The next week, #16 Florida State visited. A 6-2 GT team facing a ranked FSU. It had to sell out, right? Nope. But it did sell 53.5k of the 55k seats.

Not only does common sense tell you, but precedence shows that Tech will not sell out games against almost anybody but Georgia, and occasionally Clemson. No matter what Tech’s record has been, where we’re ranked, or what time the game is, people don’t show up to watch Tech play average to mediocre teams. The demand isn’t there.

Man, is this ever right!

I keep hearing this argument and the ones making it seem to miss the point Jacket is making (quite well, I might add): Tech doesn't sell out football games and it doesn't matter how good we are or how good the opponent is. Or, iow, Tech's football program is like many others. The number of schools that sell their stadiums out for most games is actually pretty small. And when you look at who does, you have to remember that many of the schools require purchase of season football tickets by students as part of their "activity fees". Getting students - and fans, for that matter - to show up is increasingly difficult for programs that average 10 wins a year, much less at Tech.

 

[JacketOff]

We have to be good for several years in a row for that to even be accurate. It makes no sense to point out examples of one off years where we were surprisingly good and say “Look at that, in the middle of this good season we still didn’t draw well”. It doesn’t work like that. UGA has been consistently good for several years. We can get there.
Apples and oranges.

It would take years and years of being “good” before Tech ever built up a large enough reputation to sell out every game based on brand alone. 8-4 every year would not cut it if that’s your definition of good. It would take multiple 10 win seasons, and years of winning records vs. rivals (Georgia, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech) to build up a strong enough foundation to sell out more than 1 game a year. Georgia has won 10 or more games 13 of the 20 seasons since 2000. They’ve won fewer than 8 just once, and they’ve dominated their H&H rivals (Tech, Auburn, Tennessee) and played about even with Florida in Jacksonville.

And you can’t ignore that in odd years (their worst home schedules) they still have South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and a team from the SEC West on their schedule. Tech’s best home schedule in odd years has Georgia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, and a team from the Atlantic. Those aren’t exactly the most compelling games. Even years draw Clemson, Miami, Duke, and Virginia. While Georgia gets Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Tech.

With more teams adjusting their OOC scheduling to including more P5 teams, Tech cannot afford to back off scheduling and play Western Kentucky, Troy, and Bowling Green every year. If Tech goes 9-3 with that schedule they still probably lose to Georgia, Clemson, and either Miami or North Carolina. 2 conference losses means they won’t play in Charlotte, and they have to win the bowl game to get to 10 wins.

The 2009 Wake Forest game is the only real history we have to refer to when it comes to being a consistent winner. Coming off a 9-4 year with a UGA win. Going into the game 8-1 ranked #10 in the country, that’s 17-5 over the last 22 games (which hasn’t happened since) playing a conference opponent in a 3:30 Saturday afternoon game. If that game didn’t sell out, how many games over how many years would it take to sell out noon games in September against Northern Illinois? Hell, how long would it take to sell out night games against Miami?

 

[Milwaukee]

With more teams adjusting their OOC scheduling to including more P5 teams, Tech cannot afford to back off scheduling and play Western Kentucky, Troy, and Bowling Green every year. If Tech goes 9-3 with that schedule they still probably lose to Georgia, Clemson, and either Miami or North Carolina. 2 conference losses means they won’t play in Charlotte, and they have to win the bowl game to get to 10 wins.

I think I’m with you on most of your points except for the “ifs” and “probably” parts. I’m working based off we don’t lose those games. “If” we put together several seasons of success, which I assumed would obviously include wins vs the programs you mentioned, then the crowds would grow. We haven’t reached that point, I’m referring to us REACHING that point. We can get there, and crowds can grow. It’s up to us to be a consistently dominant program.

 

[JacketOff]

I think I’m with you on most of your points except for the “ifs” and “probably” parts. I’m working based off we don’t lose those games. “If” we put together several seasons of success, which I assumed would obviously include wins vs the programs you mentioned, then the crowds would grow. We haven’t reached that point, I’m referring to us REACHING that point. We can get there, and crowds can grow. It’s up to us to be a consistently dominant program.

If that’s how you’re thinking the future might look then I can agree it’s not necessary to schedule tough OOC games. But I can’t see a future where Tech beats Clemson or Georgia more than 30% of the time. Going 11-1 and just losing to 1 of those 2 makes Tech a legitimate national title contender. I believe there may be a couple of those types of years on the way, but they are definitely not going to be consistent enough to fill BDS every Saturday based on brand alone. Plus, every single team that’s in the national title picture are scheduling more elite teams. Not less. That was the way of the BCS when record was weighed heavier than SOS. The CFP weighs SOS very heavily, and the elites are adjusting to it. If Tech is going to become an elite team, they are going to have to schedule like one. Most of that is already in place.