The crux of the matter

[Jmonty71]

I would be interested to know what our 3rd down conversion rate on defense is for 5 yards to go and greater. Yes we have had a good deal of 3rd and shorts, but if I were to guess, we are not faring too well in the plus 5 yards to go stat either.

I honestly feel that we do better when it's 3rd and short. 3rd and long, seems to be our bane. Oddly enough. It seems that we give too many 3rd and longs away.

 

[MWBATL]

It has got to be fixed and soon - very soon.

Only if you care about winning football games. If your objective is to graduate football players, and not "cheapen the degree" of other GT grads, you can blissfully mosey along just the way you are now and be content. Yay 6-6!!

 

[Jay Alexander]

The REAL crux of the matter:

Total points at the end of the game.

After reviewing every game of football ever played in the history of football, the team that has the most points when the clock runs out wins 100% of the time. Top football teams in the country succeed at this one stat nearly 100% of time. Right now, we've only managed to win this stat 50% of the time this season.

Maybe someone should let CPJ know about this all-important stat?

...smdh

Come on, anyone that is even remotely interested in football knows that performance on third down is critical...but so is performance on 1st down, special teams, and everything else.

I promise CPJ didn't just forget to flip the "do better on 3rd down" switch.

 

[GTJake]

IMO, 3rd down woes come down to two things and they're both about the DL.
#1) 3rd and long - No pass-rush by the down-linemen, in order to get pressure on the QB we have to give up something else and good offenses take advantage.
#2) 3rd and short - Good OL's have been getting a good "push" at the LOS, we need more Brandon Adams'.
I personally thing our DB talent is pretty good and our LB's are OK ... we really miss PJ Davis, hopefully our younger guys can take advantage of the playing time.

 

[AE 87]

cfbstats.com gives situational stats for rushing and passing offense and defense which includes 3rd down at various yds to go: 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, and 10+. Unfortunately, when I add-up all the 3rd down defense stats in excel, the attempts and conversions don't always match their 3rd down defense table with respect to number of attempts and number of conversions. It's also not clear whether the 3rd down conversion ranking counts a TD as a conversion or only a 1st down.

That being said, using this data and counting both TDs and 1st downs as conversions, GT is #105 in 3rd and 1-6 and #102 in 3rd and 7+ defense, #116 overall.

 

[alagold]

cfbstats.com gives situational stats for rushing and passing offense and defense which includes 3rd down at various yds to go: 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, and 10+. Unfortunately, when I add-up all the 3rd down defense stats in excel, the attempts and conversions don't always match their 3rd down defense table with respect to number of attempts and number of conversions. It's also not clear whether the 3rd down conversion ranking counts a TD as a conversion or only a 1st down.

That being said, using this data and counting both TDs and 1st downs as conversions, GT is #105 in 3rd and 1-6 and #102 in 3rd and 7+ defense, #116 overall.

wow, even if that is not exactly right ,that is scary
here is another one--powerful GS was 8 for 10 on 3rd down in 2nd half last wk

 

[jeffgt14]

That's true they did convert 3rd and short but they also made it look pretty easy on 3rd and long too. I know this sounds crazy but I like our chances better if it is 3rd and 2 as opposed to 3rd and 8. We sometimes stuff the run but a short pass over the middle on 3rd and 8 is almost automatic unless the QB makes a bad throw.

I say the same thing in the chat every week. I hope they get a 3rd and 2 just for the chance they might run.

 

[Vespidae]

The pro game is designed around third and four ... it's the most difficult to defend because you can run and pass.

The TO works because many TO offenses will try for first on fourth down too. It's a great demoralizer for them to have defend ... again.

 

[Boomergump]

cfbstats.com gives situational stats for rushing and passing offense and defense which includes 3rd down at various yds to go: 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, and 10+. Unfortunately, when I add-up all the 3rd down defense stats in excel, the attempts and conversions don't always match their 3rd down defense table with respect to number of attempts and number of conversions. It's also not clear whether the 3rd down conversion ranking counts a TD as a conversion or only a 1st down.

That being said, using this data and counting both TDs and 1st downs as conversions, GT is #105 in 3rd and 1-6 and #102 in 3rd and 7+ defense, #116 overall.

It is the 3rd and long conversions that are killing me. If a team converts a 3rd and two so be it. However, we have had teams behind the sticks. We have had good plays on early downs causing third and longs. We are just letting teams off the hook too much. On most of these long, clock eating drives we are giving up, the opposing team has had to convert at least one 3rd and +7.

 

[Jay Alexander]

It is the 3rd and long conversions that are killing me. If a team converts a 3rd and two so be it. However, we have had teams behind the sticks. We have had good plays on early downs causing third and longs. We are just letting teams off the hook too much. On most of these long, clock eating drives we are giving up, the opposing team has had to convert at least one 3rd and +7.

This.

I think it would be interesting to develop some type of stat around "When should a defense get off the field?"

Pretty much any game I watch, if the offense has a 3rd and 2 I expect them to pick it up and keep the drive alive. If it's 3rd and 13, I expect the defense to hold and get off the field.

Truth be told, if a team picks up a penalty on 1st down and are faced with a 1st and 25, I expect the defense to get off the field.

I don't know exactly how to go about it, but it seems like some sort of "missed opportunity" or "performance vs. reasonable expectation" stat could be developed to somewhat quantify the chances when the defense should have gotten off the field only to have to stay on for yet another first down.

 

[Vespidae]

It's not in the box scores, but most teams track conversions by third and short, third and medium and third and long.

Some sites track "success rate" which seems to have some support.

 

[bravejason]

I'm not convinced that the primary issue on defense isn't talent. Specifically, talent on the defensive line. There are some decent players there, but given the relative inability to win one-on-one matchups with offensive linemen, that suggest to me that the team is lacking talent. I'm hoping some of the guys out there now will grow into a next level player. Obviously, there have been a few next level guys on the line from time to time, but one player doesn't make a defense. This has been an issue for a long time it seems like. Though, after listening to the podcast, perhaps scheme or coaching was a good portion of the problem in the past.

There are mixed opinions about Roof. What I see under Roof is a team that understands what it is supposed to be doing and has issues recognizing and defending a screen pass. I'm much happier with Roof than I was with Groh. I liked Kelly, but that had everything to do with his cleaning up Groh's mess and nothing to do with his ability to coordinate a defense since he left after the season and I don't follow FSU football.

I don't assign blame for a lack of talent to any one coach because I have no mechanism for evaluating which coaches are good recruiters and which are not. So, I see recruiting as a coaching staff issue and as an athletic director issue (The AD through the allocation of funds). If you want to lay recruiting issues on CPJ feet since he's the head coach, I'm not in a position to argue otherwise.

 

[AE 87]

I'm not convinced that the primary issue on defense isn't talent. Specifically, talent on the defensive line. There are some decent players there, but given the relative inability to win one-on-one matchups with offensive linemen, that suggest to me that the team is lacking talent. I'm hoping some of the guys out there now will grow into a next level player. Obviously, there have been a few next level guys on the line from time to time, but one player doesn't make a defense. This has been an issue for a long time it seems like. Though, after listening to the podcast, perhaps scheme or coaching was a good portion of the problem in the past.

There are mixed opinions about Roof. What I see under Roof is a team that understands what it is supposed to be doing and has issues recognizing and defending a screen pass. I'm much happier with Roof than I was with Groh. I liked Kelly, but that had everything to do with his cleaning up Groh's mess and nothing to do with his ability to coordinate a defense since he left after the season and I don't follow FSU football.

I don't assign blame for a lack of talent to any one coach because I have no mechanism for evaluating which coaches are good recruiters and which are not. So, I see recruiting as a coaching staff issue and as an athletic director issue (The AD through the allocation of funds). If you want to lay recruiting issues on CPJ feet since he's the head coach, I'm not in a position to argue otherwise.

I appreciate this post, but we have to admit we don't know what's being asked of our DL on any given play.

As others have said, if we are prioritizing gap control over penetration, then we may misinterpret. If we can't penetrate when trying, we may need to run more stunts or blitzes.

In other words, if we don't have the talent to be effective in our D, then we should mix up our D. We don't have Bama talent, but we also don't have bottom of Pwr5, mid G5 talent either. There are DCs getting better results from comparable talent.

I remember people complaining about DL talent when we had Barnes, Cummings and Dieke, and they all spent time on NFL rosters.