The Coastal "Race"

GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

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This isn't so much of a race for coastal, but a trench warfare attrition.

Ok, let me just say we need to win at least our next two to be relevant, three would be a very good chance to go to the ACCCG. This is a very enjoyable season and likeley we'll spend the last two weeks of games watching other ACC teams play to see whether we win Coastal. Here's where things stand this morning:

 
GTNavyNuke

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Duke is the only team in control of their destiny. But they have only played 3 games and have 5 to go. Atomic has them at 45-60% likely to win each of their next four game (@Pitt, @Cuse, VT, UNC). I hope they lose every one and go back under their rock.

UNC is the next positioned team, they needed to lose to UVa for us, but didn't. I think they are the most likely team to win Coastal, but that will really hinge on the @Miami game next week.

Maimi would be the team I most expect to win Coastal, but they have FSU. They beat UNC next week and beat FSU and they deserve Coastal. (Unless we win out.)

UVa we have to beat to be relevant. If we lose to UVa, they are my emotional favorite to win but they don't have the talent.

Pitt needs to get pissed off and take it out on Duke next week. But with @UNC and @ Miami, I don't think they make it.

VT brings a smile to my face. They are essentially out. But we want them to beat Duke.
 
Southpaw13

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Duke has such an easy schedule, makes me kinda mad sometimes that people want to act like they are the best team in the coastal. Syracuse and Wake are the two worst teams in the Atlantic, and they get VT and UNC at home.
 

johncu

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I still think a 5-3 team wins the Coastal. I've said it from the beginning and I'm sticking with it.
 
daBuzz

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Nah, I doubt seriously that Duke loses more than 1 more of their remaining ACC games. They may even run the table.
 
Yella-Britches

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GTNavyNuke said:
Duke is the only team in control of their destiny. But they have only played 3 games and have 5 to go. Atomic has them at 45-60% likely to win each of their next four game (@Pitt, @Cuse, VT, UNC). I hope they lose every one and go back under their rock.
Click to expand...
- PLEASE - BACK WHERE YOU BELONG, PUKE! C'MON PITT!
GTNavyNuke said:
UNC is the next positioned team, they needed to lose to UVa for us, but didn't. I think they are the most likely team to win Coastal, but that will really hinge on the @Miami game next week.
Click to expand...
- WHAT AN EASY SCHEDULE REMAINING FOR THEM / PLEASE TAKE 'EM OUT, MIAMI.
GTNavyNuke said:
VT brings a smile to my face. They are essentially out. But we want them to beat Duke.
Click to expand...
- THIS IS THE BEST PART OF THE SEASON FOR ME - CHOKIES ARE LOOKING REALLY CRAPPY (BUT I AGREE / THEY NEED TO TAKE CARE OF DUKE ).
 

johncu

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daBuzz said:
Nah, I doubt seriously that Duke loses more than 1 more of their remaining ACC games. They may even run the table.
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That would really surprise me. IMO I think 4-4 is more likely than 6-2 for Duke. I think UNC and VT will beat them and Pitt is a tossup. They also don't have the talent to walk over Cuse or Wake - an off day and Duke could lose to those teams, too.

I saw most of Duke's games last year and a few this year, and the ball has bounced their way a LOT. Last year Logan Thomas completely imploded against Duke, Duke Johnson and like 2 other Miami players got injured right before the Duke game, and they needed a KO ret TD and 2 pick 6's to beat NC State. They benefitted from a lot of calls and luck against us, and squeaked by Virginia who was missing their QB and still outgained Duke by over 100 yards.

I just think they're not as good as their record would seem to indicate.
 
daBuzz

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johncu said:
That would really surprise me. IMO I think 4-4 is more likely than 6-2 for Duke. I think UNC and VT will beat them and Pitt is a tossup. They also don't have the talent to walk over Cuse or Wake - an off day and Duke could lose to those teams, too.
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Apparently, you & I were watching two entirely different games when Duke played us. They had us by 3 touchdowns and were content to play prevent defense and let us complete underneath routes at the end of the game. Those passes and the subsequent TDs' made the final score look closer than that game really was.

I think many of you are thinking these are the Duke teams of old but they actually have talent now and they have a good coach as well. Yes, they were the beneficiary of a lot of luck last year and an easy schedule. And their schedule this year is much easier than ours.

But Wake and Syracuse are horrible football teams this year. Those are gimmes. Likewise, we've found out that VT is simply not very good and I don't think Duke struggles there. UNC can score but they can't stop anyone that doesn't stop themselves and Duke actually rushes the passer pretty well. UNC may well take that game but I'd wager that Duke goes into that game as a favorite. Pitt is a decently talented team but that team appears to be really close to giving up on their coach. If Duke gets out to a lead on them, I think they fold their tents and give up for the season.

I'd love to be wrong but I believe some of you are thinking this is the same old Duke program as the Duke of old. But watch them when they play now....they not only think they can win, they now are starting to expect to win. When that happens, you start to build momentum as a program.
 
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johncu

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Duke beat us fair and square, but we really crapped the bed in that game. They are not the Duke team of old, but they're no world-beaters either. I think they're a 5-3/4-4 type team that is dangerous enough to beat good teams but also mediocre enough to lose to weak ones.

I think UNC is a better team, and it's hard to expect them to play their A game against every other team on their schedule. We'll see, but IMO if Duke wins the Coastal it will be part of a 5-3 tiebreaker.
 
daBuzz

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johncu said:
Duke beat us fair and square, but we really crapped the bed in that game. They are not the Duke team of old, but they're no world-beaters either. I think they're a 5-3/4-4 type team that is dangerous enough to beat good teams but also mediocre enough to lose to weak ones.

I think UNC is a better team, and it's hard to expect them to play their A game against every other team on their schedule. We'll see, but IMO if Duke wins the Coastal it will be part of a 5-3 tiebreaker.
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Hey, I hope you're right since that would open the door for us.
 
jeffgt14

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UNC also controls their own destiny in the coastal. I agree with dabuzz though, I have a hard time seeing two more losses for Duke.
 

gtg936g

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Duke is probably the most consistent team in the Coastal. I do think there is a lot of parity in the Coastal though. That Pitt game might be interesting for Duke. Both play physical football, and Pitt is a lot better than they played yesterday (no complaints from me though), so I could see Pitt beating them.

The most interesting thing for me is our schedule. I love our team, but I doubt we win out. UVA is going to be a huge challenge for us so will Clemson with or without Watson. We must continue to be opportunistic on Defense. We cannot really stop anyone for 4 quarters, but if we can win the turnover battle we can win some games.
 
GTrob21

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From what I have seen Duke is going to win the Coastal.. They will lose to FSU in the championship and go to a good bowl game where they will lose to an SEC opponent.
 

takethepoints

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The main thing here is that we're the only team with 3 ACC games left to play. All the others - especially Puke - have more opportunities to slip up. I expect Puke to lose at least 2 and perhaps 3 of their remaining games. The trap for them is Syracuse, imho. I watched their game with Clemson last night and was impressed. Their record isn't very good, but they are the kind of team that looks like they would match up well with Puke.

But … we'll know soon enough. I'll say now, however, that I also wouldn't be surprised to see a team with a 5-3 record win the Coastal.
 
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