The Coastal "Race"

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

It's because for whatever reason the SEC is defined by the top of its conference and the some of the others, particularly the ACC, are defined by the bottom of their conferece. It drives me insane. Not to mention the blatant SEC ranking bias. I just hope the committee isn't influenced by the polls as much as they say won't be.

The reason is pretty simple. Other conferences beat each other up, too, but when it comes down to SEC v ACC or SEC v Big Ten, the SEC wins a high percentage of the time. In the Capitol One bowl and Outback Bowl which both put SEC against Big Ten teams, in the Capitol One the SEC has won 7 of the last 12 and in the Outback the SEC has won 12 of the last 18. In the Peach in the last 20, SEC- ACC are ten and ten. But that still makes the SEC 29 to 40 head to head. Not scientific because the match ups aren't best against best or fourth against fourth every time. But until other conferences show similar domination, they will have to be satisfied with the "little brother" label.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Are you really arguing that a worse team has never pulled an upset in sports history and beaten a better team? Do you really think that any team that beats another team head-to-head is always better? You can't really believe that, right? Am I misunderstanding your point?

Oh no, we have been on the winning side of several monumental upsets over the years. Glorious upsets. My point is that many people are claiming we are the rightful coastal champ, because we let our tail fly up against "an inferior" Duke team, and when the teams are as close as they are in this division, the winner is going to be the team that plays up to its capabilities every game. Probably because Duke has been so bad, for so long, there is a reluctance to believe that they are a decent football team. They are, and they should be credited for coming into our place where no Duke team had won in about twenty years, and spanking us when we thought we were headed for the playoffs. Seriously, as we all have seen so many times in the past, Tech had so much to play for and couldn't get it done. Duke had the same chips on the table and found a way to win. We have to win out and still hope for help from a handful of lesser teams, all because of one game. I do not look for Duke to stumble.

 

[GTRX7]

The reason is pretty simple. Other conferences beat each other up, too, but when it comes down to SEC v ACC or SEC v Big Ten, the SEC wins a high percentage of the time. In the Capitol One bowl and Outback Bowl which both put SEC against Big Ten teams, in the Capitol One the SEC has won 7 of the last 12 and in the Outback the SEC has won 12 of the last 18. In the Peach in the last 20, SEC- ACC are ten and ten. But that still makes the SEC 29 to 40 head to head. Not scientific because the match ups aren't best against best or fourth against fourth every time. But until other conferences show similar domination, they will have to be satisfied with the "little brother" label.

I actually do agree that the SEC is the best conference from top to bottom and should be given a bit more respect due to inter-conference losses, but I don't think it is nearly as dominant as the media likes to portray.

I am also not sure I understand your math. Am I reading this right?
Capitol One - SEC 7-5
Outback - SEC 12-6
Peach - SEC 10-10

How does that equal 40-29?

 

[GTRX7]

Oh no, we have been on the winning side of several monumental upsets over the years. Glorious upsets. My point is that many people are claiming we are the rightful coastal champ, because we let our tail fly up against "an inferior" Duke team, and when the teams are as close as they are in this division, the winner is going to be the team that plays up to its capabilities every game. Probably because Duke has been so bad, for so long, there is a reluctance to believe that they are a decent football team. They are, and they should be credited for coming into our place where no Duke team had won in about twenty years, and spanking us when we thought we were headed for the playoffs. Seriously, as we all have seen so many times in the past, Tech had so much to play for and couldn't get it done. Duke had the same chips on the table and found a way to win. We have to win out and still hope for help from a handful of lesser teams, all because of one game. I do not look for Duke to stumble.

Gotcha. Okay. I do think Duke is pretty good, though I do think GT probably wins that game more times than not. I also think Duke will lose at least one more. On the other hand, I think Miami might win more against us than not. All three teams are relatively close. I think a lot of the frustration is that we should have been better at home. And that we have to play Clemson and Miami has to play FSU, while Duke has to play Wake. Does that make sense as to why Tech fans are frustrated that Duke may make the championship game? I think a three way tie between Duke, GT, and Miami would actually be appropriate.

 

[GTRX7]

I will also point out that the SEC seems to have a much better bowl record against out of conference teams than regular season record. I remembered this article from a couple of years ago (Link), but would be interested to see the numbers now. In Aug 2012, here were the SEC's regular season records against the other power five conferences since the start of the BCS in 1998:

SEC vs. PAC-12 regular season: 10-12
SEC vs. Big 12 regular season: 6-10
SEC vs. ACC regular season: 42-36
SEC vs. Big 10 regular season: 7-4
SEC vs. Big East regular season: 16-15

The SEC's bowl record has been pretty fantastic. It is certainly hard to argue with that. UGA dominating Tech pretty much entirely explains the discrepancy between the ACC v. SEC regular season record (sadly).

 

[DTGT]

True, bowl match-ups are more easily manipulated. But at the top of conference there can be no debate that the SEC has stronger teams.

I dispute your claim and submit the last championship game as evidence.

SEC vs. PAC-12 regular season: 10-12
SEC vs. Big 12 regular season: 6-10
SEC vs. ACC regular season: 42-36
SEC vs. Big 10 regular season: 7-4
SEC vs. Big East regular season: 16-15

Using these numbers, the SEC is a combined 81-77. Or only 2 games away from 79-79. This does not disprove the null hypothesis that the odds of an SEC winning against an FBS team is 50%.

 

[WreckinGT]

I have always found it interesting that the at large SEC team in the BCS usually lost. Since 2007, 5 of 7 at large SEC teams lost. The two that won beat Hawaii and a Cincinnati team without a head coach. You would think the 2nd best teams in the SEC would fare better than that.

 

[DTGT]

Using these numbers, the SEC is a combined 81-77. Or only 2 games away from 79-79. This does not disprove the null hypothesis that the odds of an SEC winning against an FBS team is 50%.

Null hypothesis = SEC win odds are 50%
Hypot 1 = SEC win odds are >50%

Set alpha = 0.05
1 - alpha = 0.95

In Excel:
=BINOMDIST(81,158,0.5,1)
= 0.6545

Check for significance:
0.6545 < 0.95 therefore the null hypothesis cannot be rejected with 95% confidence.

 

[GTRX7]

Null hypothesis = SEC win odds are 50%
Hypot 1 = SEC win odds are >50%

Set alpha = 0.05
1 - alpha = 0.95

In Excel:
=BINOMDIST(81,158,0.5,1)
= 0.6545

Check for significance:
0.6545 < 0.95 therefore the null hypothesis cannot be rejected with 95% confidence.

To be fair to the SEC (ugh, I just threw up a little in my mouth typing that), the article I cited that you are getting the data from is a couple years old, and you are only using the regular season records. As I mentioned above, the SEC's bowl record against power conferences is substantially better than its regular season record and pretty impressive.

 

[Animal02]

To be fair to the SEC (ugh, I just threw up a little in my mouth typing that), the article I cited that you are getting the data from is a couple years old, and you are only using the regular season records. As I mentioned above, the SEC's bowl record against power conferences is substantially better than its regular season record and pretty impressive.

As others have said.......the bowl games are easy to manipulate. Regular season games are scheduled years in advance.....so whether a team is having a up year or down year will average out. Bowl selection is more about drawing fans and creating TV interest.....a Hawaii / Cincy game would not draw a crowd.....split them up and put each against an SEC team in their (relative) own back yard and you have home field advantage for the SEC team.......and it promotes the "SEC dominates" sales pitch by ESPN

 

[GTRX7]

As others have said.......the bowl games are easy to manipulate. Regular season games are scheduled years in advance.....so whether a team is having a up year or down year will average out. Bowl selection is more about drawing fans and creating TV interest.....a Hawaii / Cincy game would not draw a crowd.....split them up and put each against an SEC team in their (relative) own back yard and you have home field advantage for the SEC team.......and it promotes the "SEC dominates" sales pitch by ESPN

Unfortunately, on the other hand, the Peach Bowl is something like SEC #5 vs. ACC #2. I think you may find that the bowls generally average out as well.

 

[Animal02]

Unfortunately, on the other hand, the Peach Bowl is something like SEC #5 vs. ACC #2. I think you may find that the bowls generally average out as well.

The # for bowls is not ranking, but selection order for that particular bowl.....i.e., the Peach Bowl got the 2nd pick from the ACC....not the 2nd best team. Teams like Tech, Wake etc with small fan bases get passed over when schools with larger fan bases are "near" WRT quality.

 

[WreckinGT]

The # for bowls is not ranking, but selection order for that particular bowl.....i.e., the Peach Bowl got the 2nd pick from the ACC....not the 2nd best team. Teams like Tech, Wake etc with small fan bases get passed over when schools with larger fan bases are "near" WRT quality.

Yep. I remember last year the rumors were that the Chick Fil A committee was trying to get UGA vs Miami for the Peach Bowl and pass over Duke. Swofford somehow forced them to take Duke anyways.

 

[Squints]

The reason is pretty simple. Other conferences beat each other up, too, but when it comes down to SEC v ACC or SEC v Big Ten, the SEC wins a high percentage of the time. In the Capitol One bowl and Outback Bowl which both put SEC against Big Ten teams, in the Capitol One the SEC has won 7 of the last 12 and in the Outback the SEC has won 12 of the last 18. In the Peach in the last 20, SEC- ACC are ten and ten. But that still makes the SEC 29 to 40 head to head. Not scientific because the match ups aren't best against best or fourth against fourth every time. But until other conferences show similar domination, they will have to be satisfied with the "little brother" label.

Well that all depends on whether you think bowl games are a good indicator of conference strength. Personally, I don't think they are. But that's not my major issue. My big problem is with the SEC poll bias. Which is propagated by the sports media which I have little to no respect for. So you could say my issue is with the media more than the SEC itself.

For the record I do think the SEC is probably the best conference but I don't think the difference is nowhere near as large as the media makes it out to be and the conference is very top heavy.

 

[Animal02]

Yep. I remember last year the rumors were that the Chick Fil A committee was trying to get UGA vs Miami for the Peach Bowl and pass over Duke. Swofford somehow forced them to take Duke anyways.

They likely would have done the same had Tech been in Duke's place

 

[DTGT]

To be fair to the SEC (ugh, I just threw up a little in my mouth typing that), the article I cited that you are getting the data from is a couple years old, and you are only using the regular season records. As I mentioned above, the SEC's bowl record against power conferences is substantially better than its regular season record and pretty impressive.

Run the numbers. What is the SEC's record against FBS schools since 1998? Let's see regular season plus bowls. I highly doubt you will see anything that shows their odds of winning are statistically different than a coin flip.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Run the numbers. What is the SEC's record against FBS schools since 1998? Let's see regular season plus bowls. I highly doubt you will see anything that shows their odds of winning are statistically different than a coin flip.

I think in 2012 and 2013 seasons, the SEC won about 77% of their non-conference non-FCS games. That is a large part of the reason why I think they have such a high Power Ranking by the different computer algorithms.

I agree with your point about ESPN being biased, but until the SEC starts to lose more outside the conference, they will be the ESPN darling because it attracts the largest audience. Once the SEC is no longer the darling, ESPN will go zombie on them.

Anyway, here's how I got the stat.

• In 2013, the SEC conference record according to J Howell was 111 and 69. That's all games including bowls.
• There are 14 SEC teams and all the one I checked played 1 FCS team. So subtract 14 off of the wins (97 ins and 69 losses). (Yeah I'm assuming that the SEC won all it's FCS games!)
• The 14 SEC teams each play 8 SEC regular season games a year (at least the ones I checked). So that is 14 teams times 8 games divided by 2 since there was a winner and loser in each game (no ties I hope). That is 56 inner conference games which need to be taken off the total wins and losses.
• Plus there is one SEC championship game so take another win and loss off of total win and loss.
• Finally assume that the bowls were all SEC versus another conference. I think it's true, so wins and losses aren't adjusted for bowls. If there were SEC on SEC bowls, then you'd have to take one off of both wins ans losses and the % would go up.
• Doing that, you end up with 40 wins and 12 losses or 77% winning %.
• Similarly for 2012 where there were 111 wins and 68 losses, the % is 78%.
• Someone else can go back to 1998!

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Well that all depends on whether you think bowl games are a good indicator of conference strength. Personally, I don't think they are. But that's not my major issue. My big problem is with the SEC poll bias. Which is propagated by the sports media which I have little to no respect for. So you could say my issue is with the media more than the SEC itself.

For the record I do think the SEC is probably the best conference but I don't think the difference is nowhere near as large as the media makes it out to be and the conference is very top heavy.

You are right, the bowls may not be an indicator of conference strength because the match ups are for such varied reasons (ticket sales, travel considerations, traditional match ups) that we rarely see #3 SEC against #3 Pac 12, etc. But the answer to the Poll Bias is the same. Non-SEC teams have got to start beating SEC teams more frequently. FSU over Auburn is a start. Tech over Georgia, Clemson over USC would help. Massey has the SEC in the top four and six out of the top 8. That is just insane, but who would you change? Alabama, Mississippi, Miss St., Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, Oregon, LSU. The propaganda is nobody beat the SEC teams but other SEC teams. And as of today it's true.

 

[Minawreck]

Just FYI but SEC Florida lost to FCS GA Southern

 

[WreckinGT]

You are right, the bowls may not be an indicator of conference strength because the match ups are for such varied reasons (ticket sales, travel considerations, traditional match ups) that we rarely see #3 SEC against #3 Pac 12, etc. But the answer to the Poll Bias is the same. Non-SEC teams have got to start beating SEC teams more frequently. FSU over Auburn is a start. Tech over Georgia, Clemson over USC would help. Massey has the SEC in the top four and six out of the top 8. That is just insane, but who would you change? Alabama, Mississippi, Miss St., Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, Oregon, LSU. The propaganda is nobody beat the SEC teams but other SEC teams. And as of today it's true.

The SEC doesn't even have a single bowl game against the Pac 12 unless they meet in the playoffs. They only have two against the Big 12. The rest are all ACC and Big 10 matchups against teams that are usually 7-5 or 8-4 or games against mid major conferences.