lv20gt
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 5,588
I am. Sustained success trumps whatever negative would likely come from it.
IMO there would be two things to consider.
1) Losing 6 players in one year. That would hurt and make 22-23 worse than it would be if all 4 left. However, that isn't really the comparison to make. Because next year would be significantly better. It's more accurate to compare the next two years in each case than individual years. At worst it's a matter of having a higher high and lower low (with next year being better than 22-23 in the other situation and 22-23 being worse than next year). However, imo the lower low is not anywhere near as guaranteed as the higher high.
2) Transfers/decommits. As far as the commits go, the only one I would be worried about is Coleman based on some of his comments about getting early time and having the ball in his hands early. That being said, IMO he was the missing link from our starting 5 this year. Bubba gave us another outside threat but size/length hurt. Moore gave us defense and size/length but his offense hurt. Coleman has the combination of size/length and outside shooting that we lacked. Based on his comments, I don't expect J.Moore to be swayed. Maybe Kelly was looking at big time early and could reconsider, but with Devoe likely coming back I'm not sure about that, and he's from the Atlanta area I believe.
Transfer wise, the one who I would be most worried about would be Bubba ironically. He was already accepting a role that was probably not really natural to him, based on how he played at VMI, and he started to see that diminish a bit in the second half of the season. But if we're assuming all come back, then that isn't an issue. After him, Sturdivant would likely be the biggest "loser" in terms of time. I guess he could leave, but I would expect him to be the first guard off the bench for either Jose or Mike due to how he was used later in the season. He'd still have two years of eligibility as almost a guaranteed starter waiting for him. IMO that would be the worst transfer we could see as it would leave us without a PG for the following year. Otherwise, while I like Howard/Gigiberia/Meka/Maxwell, but unless we had a mass exodus I wouldn't be that worried. The three bigs I don't see why they would transfer. They would all have a great shot at being multi year starters after next year with 2+ years remaining. Maxwell would hurt because I really like his potential, but with Coleman and Kelly I think our future is good on the off guard and wing anyways.