Just a lazy take. Everyone places way too much stock in prior year performance when predicting early season games. We will be fine.
Parker Fleming ( @statsowar on Twitter / X / whatever the hell you want to call it) is super sharp. The other two guys, not so much.
I haven’t watched the video. If I do, I’ll probably fast forward chunks of it if it’s too long.
Parker Fleming is a good stats guy. For a preview, you can look at previous year game tape, previous year stats, previous year player ratings, or get invited to meaningful practices for both teams this year (if you can find them). The last option won’t happen often, and for people who are trying to preview a ton of teams, it’s not gonna be practical even with a private plane and an unlimited budget.
If you’re using film: We started the year with a terrible offense and ended the year looking like we knew what we were doing with a third or fourth-string QB. You probably need Western Kentucky or Valdosta game film to see this year’s offense (with different players). For Louisville, you need to watch Purdue film with mostly different players.
On defense, Louisville had a better rated defense than us last year. We were pretty good. We’ve changed over some coaches, and hopefully look good at LB.
If someone previews this game based on last year, it’s pretty smart to think Louisville slides a little on defense and gets better on offense, and we slide or hold even on defense and get better on offense.
That probably leaves Louisville at a 7-point favorite. To win this game, we need to have gotten much better on offense and maybe better on defense with a decent group of transfers. All that would be invisible to almost anyone forecasting this game.
It’s what I’m hoping to see, though.
This is a murky game to preview—more than most with both head coaches kicking off the season as new HCs at their schools