Excuse my cynicism, but perhaps mods should start a separate thread (so I can ignore it) just to deal with the discussion about The Decision To Decline The Penalty. Y'all could also include stats on Win Probabilities +/- based on the decision. Probably less than 2% difference either way, but who cares?
There is one, but this conversation spills over everywhere.
We didn’t keep pace in the first half. The defense was on their heels in the first half, and blocked a field goal to keep us even. The defense needed a lifeline; instead, we punted after 3 downs. Then they scored a TD, and we punted. Then they scored a TD, then we scored a TD. We’re down 21-14, behind the 8-ball, but trying to hang in. We make them punt, make a great special teams play, then we miss a field goal.
That missed field goal at the end of the first half was huge. It was bigger than declining the penalty. Not getting a TD to go to halftime even was bad enough, but not having a chance to take the lead when we got the ball back was really bad.
We get the ball to start the third, and we go 3-and-out. They go up 10 on a FG. We waste the 3rd on offense.
Our next big (negative) play was losing 3 yards on 4th and 1.
We overcame all of that to claw within 3.
The big problem is we kept digging ourselves into a hole, and didn’t dig ourselves out until the 4th quarter. They had the ball for most of the game. It’s hard to say how much they choked off our air supply vs how much we did it to ourselves. We got chances and left them to fizzle.
They had 79 plays to our 65, even with us stealing a drive with an onside kick. We had defensive woes for sure, but had we just been consistent on offense, we’d have won anyway. It’s really hard to win when you’re behind and when you don’t have the ball in your hands often.
It’s a long way of saying, there are bunches of errors you can blame the loss on—why pick declining a penalty as THE error?
Final
We blew the 8 minutes around halftime. Had we played better to end the 2nd and start the 3rd, we might win. It cost us more than 3.
"Middle 8" Plays | 9 | 14 |
EPA | -3.34 | 0.87 |
EPA/play | -0.37 | 0.06 |
Passes | 5 (56%) | 10 (71%) |
Rushes | 4 (44%) | 4 (29%) |
Successful Passes (Rate) | 1 (20%) | 3 (30%) |
Successful Rushes (Rate) | 0 (0%) | 1 (25%) |
Drives | GT | Syracuse |
---|
Total | 10 | 9 |
Avg Starting Field Position | Own 19 | Own 38 |
Plays/Drive | 8.35 | 9.76 |
Yards/Drive | 48.45 | 55.73 |
Available Yards % | 59% | 89% |
Turnovers | GT | Syracuse |
---|
Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Fumbles | 0 | 0 |
Fumbles Lost | 0 | 0 |
Fumbles Recovered | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions | 0 | 0 |
Turnover Margin | 0 | 0 |
Expected Turnovers | 0.7 | 1.3 |
Expected Turnover Margin | 0.7 | -0.7 |
Turnover Luck (pts) | -3.3 | 3.3 |