Stats models and rankings

slugboy

slugboy

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ThatGuy said:
Wow. I guess. you live by the turnover, die by the turnover.

Click to expand...

He didn’t show the margins from what I saw. The turnover point differential is (assuming I added correctly)

UNC +14
FSU +18
Duke +31
VT +7
Louisville +30
Syracuse +19
Miami +11
NCST +3
BC -7
UVA -18
Pitt -16
GT +2
Wake -6
Clemson -22
 

Root4GT

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slugboy said:
He didn’t show the margins from what I saw. The turnover point differential is (assuming I added correctly)

UNC +14
FSU +18
Duke +31
VT +7
Louisville +30
Syracuse +19
Miami +11
NCST +3
BC -7
UVA -18
Pitt -16
GT +2
Wake -6
Clemson -22
Click to expand...
I have always found these numbers to be flawed. If a team throws a deep pass on 3rd down and the opposing team intercepts on their 20 yard line then drive 80 yards for a TD the turnover is not responsible for the points. Bad defense is responsible. Now if a team fumbles on its ten and the opponent kicks a FG the turnover was responsible for the points.
 
slugboy

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Root4GT said:
I have always found these numbers to be flawed. If a team throws a deep pass on 3rd down and the opposing team intercepts on their 20 yard line then drive 80 yards for a TD the turnover is not responsible for the points. Bad defense is responsible. Now if a team fumbles on its ten and the opponent kicks a FG the turnover was responsible for the points.
Click to expand...
You could look at EPA “big plays” instead
 
stinger78

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Root4GT said:
I have always found these numbers to be flawed. If a team throws a deep pass on 3rd down and the opposing team intercepts on their 20 yard line then drive 80 yards for a TD the turnover is not responsible for the points. Bad defense is responsible. Now if a team fumbles on its ten and the opponent kicks a FG the turnover was responsible for the points.
Click to expand...
A 40-yard heave on 3rd and long that is intercepted is really just a punt on 3rd down. I would agree to cull those out.
 
stinger78

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After yesterday's game @UVA...

GT is #21 in rushing offense - 281 for 1532 (5.5 ypp), with 12 TD, averaging 191.5 ypg.
GT is #40 in passing offense - 159 of 260 (61.2%), with 21 TD against 11 INT, averaging 13.5 ypc and 267.8 ypg.
GT is #42 in scoring offense - averaging 31.8 ppg.
GT is #18 in total offense - averaging 6.8 ypp and 459.2 ypg.

Gentlemen, we have ourselves an offense.

GT is #129 in rushing defense - yielding 5.4 ypr and 256.9 ypg.
GT is #79 in passing yards allowed - yielding 14.1 ypc and 235.6 ypg.
GT is #107 in scoring defense - yielding 31.8 ppg.
GT is #128 in total defense - yielding 6.6 ypp and 468.2 ypg.

Gentlemen, we still have work to do on defense.

After all that, GT is now 5-4 (4-2) and is sole owner of 3rd place in the ACC this week. Two big conference games coming up.
 

yeti92

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stinger78 said:
After yesterday's game @UVA...

GT is #21 in rushing offense - 281 for 1532 (5.5 ypp), with 12 TD, averaging 191.5 ypg.
GT is #40 in passing offense - 159 of 260 (61.2%), with 21 TD against 11 INT, averaging 13.5 ypc and 267.8 ypg.
GT is #42 in scoring offense - averaging 31.8 ppg.
GT is #18 in total offense - averaging 6.8 ypp and 459.2 ypg.

Gentlemen, we have ourselves an offense.

GT is #129 in rushing defense - yielding 5.4 ypr and 256.9 ypg.
GT is #79 in passing yards allowed - yielding 14.1 ypc and 235.6 ypg.
GT is #107 in scoring defense - yielding 31.8 ppg.
GT is #128 in total defense - yielding 6.6 ypp and 468.2 ypg.

Gentlemen, we still have work to do on defense.

After all that, GT is now 5-4 (4-2) and is sole owner of 3rd place in the ACC this week. Two big conference games coming up.
Click to expand...
I don't think these stats are updated yet - we were yielding 31.75pts/game before yesterday and are now at 30.1
 
GTNavyNuke

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stinger78 said:
After yesterday's game @UVA...

GT is #21 in rushing offense - 281 for 1532 (5.5 ypp), with 12 TD, averaging 191.5 ypg.
GT is #40 in passing offense - 159 of 260 (61.2%), with 21 TD against 11 INT, averaging 13.5 ypc and 267.8 ypg.
GT is #42 in scoring offense - averaging 31.8 ppg.
GT is #18 in total offense - averaging 6.8 ypp and 459.2 ypg.

Gentlemen, we have ourselves an offense.

GT is #129 in rushing defense - yielding 5.4 ypr and 256.9 ypg.
GT is #79 in passing yards allowed - yielding 14.1 ypc and 235.6 ypg.
GT is #107 in scoring defense - yielding 31.8 ppg.
GT is #128 in total defense - yielding 6.6 ypp and 468.2 ypg.

Gentlemen, we still have work to do on defense.

After all that, GT is now 5-4 (4-2) and is sole owner of 3rd place in the ACC this week. Two big conference games coming up.
Click to expand...

What about ST? We are getting a lot better. Certainly compared to last year where we couldn't even kick EPs.

Anyone know why in the UVa game we had the two short Kick Offs? Ones before and after were TBs.
 
roadkill

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stinger78 said:
After yesterday's game @UVA...

GT is #21 in rushing offense - 281 for 1532 (5.5 ypp), with 12 TD, averaging 191.5 ypg.
GT is #40 in passing offense - 159 of 260 (61.2%), with 21 TD against 11 INT, averaging 13.5 ypc and 267.8 ypg.
GT is #42 in scoring offense - averaging 31.8 ppg.
GT is #18 in total offense - averaging 6.8 ypp and 459.2 ypg.

Gentlemen, we have ourselves an offense.

GT is #129 in rushing defense - yielding 5.4 ypr and 256.9 ypg.
GT is #79 in passing yards allowed - yielding 14.1 ypc and 235.6 ypg.
GT is #107 in scoring defense - yielding 31.8 ppg.
GT is #128 in total defense - yielding 6.6 ypp and 468.2 ypg.

Gentlemen, we still have work to do on defense.

After all that, GT is now 5-4 (4-2) and is sole owner of 3rd place in the ACC this week. Two big conference games coming up.
Click to expand...
yeti92 said:
I don't think these stats are updated yet - we were yielding 31.75pts/game before yesterday and are now at 30.1
Click to expand...
Yeah after yesterday's game, our offense looks even better in terms of ranking, which is awesome. Up to 14th in total offense. The defense improved a little but is still near the bottom. I haven't seen special team stats on things like punting and field goals but my gut tells me they are significantly better as well.
 
roadkill

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stinger78 said:
So, this 2023 team has scored 40+ points 3x this season: SCSU (48), UNC (46), and UVA (45).

In 2022, the team did not score 40 points at all, and only scored 30+ points against WCU (35).

I'd say that we are heading in a good direction offensively.
Click to expand...
In terms of average, we have gone from 17.2 ppg to 33.2 ppg, an improvement of 16 ppg. Not sure if any team's year-over-year improvement has been better.
 
stinger78

stinger78

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So, updated after yesterday's game...
Passing O: Dropped a couple of spots to #42 (261.2 ypg).
Rushing O: Advanced 8 spots to #13 (204.1 ypg).
Scoring O: Advanced 14 spots to #28 (33.2 ppg).
Total O: Advanced 4 spots to #14 (465.3 ypg).

I'm happy.
 
roadkill

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Not to rain on the Offense stat parade, but realistically we should expect some drop-off by end-of-season after we play a couple of top-ranked defenses in Clemson and uga.

Syracuse is average, and that's after factoring in the pre-ACC games that they won easily. We should be able to rack up some points against them.

DFEI hasn't been updated for yesterday's games, but Louisville, Ole Miss, and Miami were well above average, so there's that.
 
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