Spread on Clemson Game

NorthFultonJacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
15
Let’s put it this way.....is there a single SA at Tech that would start at Clempson....especially on the defensive side of the ball? I dare say maybe 4-5 in total would crack their 2 deep roster. Clempson is easily 4 touchdowns better than us.
 
Adadu

Adadu

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,101
This isn't like 2015 where we put something together against FSU on the tails of the JT being a badass, This year we are just bad with a bad quarterback and a new defense that can't figure it out. This should be a Clemson 20 point victory at least.
 
Milwaukee

Milwaukee

Banned
Messages
7,277
Location
Milwaukee, WI
Clemson is going to give us the dive like they did last year because they're not terrified of it. This comes from someone within Clemson's football program, don't shoot the messenger.
 

smathis30

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
732
My computer model says Clemson should be a 7 point favorite at GT, but they would be a 17 point favorite at home. It still has 25% weight to preseason rankings to both teams, so take it with a grain of salt as it currently stands, Clemson would be #2 in the ACC behind BC at #10 overall at GT is #7 at 30 overall. With preseason rankings, the teams that play at the top generally are underrated the first few weeks and teams that play the top teams (aka Bama, Clemson, uga, and tOSU) generally are a little worse than what they are for my predictions. I shoot ~60% at the spread, but I've only been accurate for 1/16 games for Alabama's first four games the last four seasons.

When they won the natty, they only won by like 14 points, and that was in the rain. There is Atlanta voodoo magic always in the making, but it isn't a night game, so it might not be fully out to play. Clemson has won 6 of the last 8 (1-2 on the road) and has won every single game except for one by 14-19 points. So 16.5 is a fairly good guess at the spread.
 
Jmonty71

Jmonty71

Banned
Messages
2,156
Milwaukee said:
Clemson is going to give us the dive like they did last year because they're not terrified of it. This comes from someone within Clemson's football program, don't shoot the messenger.
Click to expand...

I think Dabo knows what CPJ is going to be doing and vice versa. The biggest issue is, Clemson has a never ending pantry of players that can step up. For us, our pantry is pretty empty. We have maybe 3-4 starters that can hang with Clemson's team. The issue is the other 18-19 starters that can't
 

Deleted member 2897

Guest
Jmonty71 said:
I think Dabo knows what CPJ is going to be doing and vice versa. The biggest issue is, Clemson has a never ending pantry of players that can step up. For us, our pantry is pretty empty. We have maybe 3-4 starters that can hang with Clemson's team. The issue is the other 18-19 starters that can't
Click to expand...

In the last 18 months we’ve lost our #1,2,3, and 4 BB and our #2,3,4 QB. And our #1 QB is dinged. And we were without 3 of our starting OL at Pittsburgh at one point. We just don’t have the depth to counteract that. New folks really have to step up.
 
boger2337

boger2337

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,353
Its fishy for a reason. Tech will backdoor after being down 21 with a last minute touchdown in garbage time. My guess. Real life this should be a 24-27 point spread. 17 is odd.
 
MacDaddy2

MacDaddy2

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
310
Location
The Island of Relevancy
smathis30 said:
My computer model says Clemson should be a 7 point favorite at GT, but they would be a 17 point favorite at home. It still has 25% weight to preseason rankings to both teams, so take it with a grain of salt as it currently stands, Clemson would be #2 in the ACC behind BC at #10 overall at GT is #7 at 30 overall. With preseason rankings, the teams that play at the top generally are underrated the first few weeks and teams that play the top teams (aka Bama, Clemson, uga, and tOSU) generally are a little worse than what they are for my predictions. I shoot ~60% at the spread, but I've only been accurate for 1/16 games for Alabama's first four games the last four seasons.

When they won the natty, they only won by like 14 points, and that was in the rain. There is Atlanta voodoo magic always in the making, but it isn't a night game, so it might not be fully out to play. Clemson has won 6 of the last 8 (1-2 on the road) and has won every single game except for one by 14-19 points. So 16.5 is a fairly good guess at the spread.
Click to expand...

Ks that model built on Phil Style? If not which preseason ranking?
 

smathis30

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
732
MacDaddy2 said:
Ks that model built on Phil Style? If not which preseason ranking?
Click to expand...
It's a pressing ranking that takes how team A did last year in offense and defense, and based off how many starters are returning, gives a multiplier.

So if team A returns 7 starters on O and 9 on D, the press on ranking for my model would have (2017 Offense score) * multiplier for 7 returning starters and same on Defense. Correlation is something like .025* starters -0.11 for percent added for O and 0.017-0.08 for defense
 
BuzzStone

BuzzStone

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,429
Location
Landrum SC
This spread is an absolute steal. I booked it at 17 as soon as it came out. I think this might be due to some questions about Kelly Bryant. But they have 3 QB's that could hang 50 on us. We will not be able to stop 1st or 2nd offense for them. We won't score at all on 1st defense and we might pull some points in garbage time to cut this to about a 25-30 point loss.
 
Top