SEC Dominance?

[Northeast Stinger]

All I'm trying to say is that PJ seemed to be playing it too conservatively with the passing game. He seemed to be playing keep away instead of put this game away. I think when it was clear they were catching on to our running schemes and getting stops we should have let it rip. Not having Smelter in the game was a factor and it showed.

The problem was not lack of passing. The problem was that our defense could not stop FSU. CPJ called a near perfect game in terms of giving our defense as much rest as possible and keeping them off the field as much as possible.

 

[Rock]

I believe the SEC is the media darling in part because they have won so many national championships for so many years now lately since 2006. From 2006 onward until FSU's victory last year over Auburn, an SEC team has been the National Champion...

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/champions_national.html

2006 Florida 13-1 BCS Championship Game : Beat Ohio State 41-14 Urban Meyer
2007 LSU 12-2 BCS Championship Game: Beat Ohio State 38-24 Les Miles
2008 Florida 13-1 BCS Championship Game: Beat Oklahoma 24-14 Urban Meyer
2009 Alabama 14-0 BCS Championship Game: Beat Texas 37-21 Nick Saban
2010 Auburn 14-0 BCS Championship Game: Beat Oregon 22-19 Gene Chizik
2011 Alabama 12-1 BCS Championship Game: Beat LSU 21-0 Nick Saban
2012 Alabama 13-1 BCS Championship Game: Beat Notre Dame 42-14 Nick Saban
2013 Florida State 14-0 BCS Championship Game: Beat Auburn 34-31 Jimbo Fisher

Maybe, if the ACC starts winning national championships more often, we might get some more respect and especially if it's more than just ONE ACC team winning those national championships.

Nevermind, what I posted.... It was wrong.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

All I'm trying to say is that PJ seemed to be playing it too conservatively with the passing game. He seemed to be playing keep away instead of put this game away. I think when it was clear they were catching on to our running schemes and getting stops we should have let it rip. Not having Smelter in the game was a factor and it showed.

Tech had clear chances to put FSU away? I didn't see that.

 

[thwgjacket]

We didn't throw it much at all other than that one super-fast "Let's play catch up now when it's too late to make a difference" drive. If our passing game was that good, why wasn't it employed more often especially when it was needed earlier in the game? IMO, PJ waited too late to bring out the passing game into the equation. We have other weapons besides our running game, and when opposing defenses start getting the hang of what you're doing, you need to bring out some more weapons. We never fully utilized our passing game in my opinion, and I believe we brought the weapon to the fight just a bit late when the fight was already lost. FSU on the other hand maintained their dual threat all game long. Our record in bowl games under PJ is 1-5 because teams have enough time to prepare for the TO. FSU didn't have but a week to prepare for our TO, but they had our former interim DC, Kelly, who could give them some insider information. They eventually started to get more stops on us as they began to figure out our schemes. It was at this point in the game that we needed to switch it up quickly with some more passing plays in the mix. IMO, we should have been utilizing our pass option a lot more than we did during the ENTIRE game though because of its tremendous potential for big plays and keeping defenses guessing. If PJ likes to gamble so much, why didn't he gamble on some pass plays more often during the ENTIRE game instead of 4th and 6 at midfield, which was batbleep crazy in my estimation?

If scoring three FG's in the 2nd half is what maintaining a dual threat gets you then I'm good with just doing our thing. We averaged almost 4 points a drive and 5.6 yards per carry just doing our thing. To me the hidden issue no one is talking about is when Waller got out of bounds around mid-field with 18 seconds before the half. We had a chance for 1 or 2 plays and a FG opportunity if the ref wouldn't have run the clock. That FG could have been huge.

 

[AE 87]

If scoring three FG's in the 2nd half is what maintaining a dual threat gets you then I'm good with just doing our thing. We averaged almost 4 points a drive and 5.6 yards per carry just doing our thing. To me the hidden issue no one is talking about is when Waller got out of bounds around mid-field with 18 seconds before the half. We had a chance for 1 or 2 plays and a FG opportunity if the ref wouldn't have run the clock. That FG could have been huge.

They gave Waller forward progress.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

If scoring three FG's in the 2nd half is what maintaining a dual threat gets you then I'm good with just doing our thing. We averaged almost 4 points a drive and 5.6 yards per carry just doing our thing. To me the hidden issue no one is talking about is when Waller got out of bounds around mid-field with 18 seconds before the half. We had a chance for 1 or 2 plays and a FG opportunity if the ref wouldn't have run the clock. That FG could have been huge.

CPJ got a little hot about that. After calming down some he seemed to be giving the ref a lecture. Yeah, normally going out of bounds stops the clock.

 

[iggymcfly]

It's funny how the betting market (group of experts looking at things as objectively as possible with millions of dollars on the line) and Sagarin (objective computer ranking deriving numbers solely from the scores of the games) both rate the SEC much, much higher than ESPN who's supposedly biased in favor of them.

Here are the ratings of the top 12 SEC teams according to the betting market:
http://stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/ncaaf.php

2. Alabama
5. Auburn
6. Georgia
7. Mississippi State
14. Ole Miss
16. LSU
19. Arkansas
22. Florida
28. Missouri
30. Texas A&M
33. South Carolina
34. Tennessee

And here they are by Sagarin, the top computer ranking:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

1. Alabama
4. Ole Miss
6. Mississippi State
8. Georgia
9. Auburn
11. LSU
13. Arkansas
16. Missouri
20. Texas A&M
21. Florida
29. Tennessee
37. South Carolina

Tells a pretty similar tale, doesn't it? Both clearly show that the SEC has gotten BETTER, not worse to the point that they're more dominant than ever and even their 12th best team would be above average in the ACC or Big Ten.

I keep hearing the 4-0 thing brought up a lot, and while that was a great moment in time for our conference, it doesn't really tell the tale. First off, we actually went 4-1 vs. the SEC this year, not 4-0 as Clemson's loss to Georgia was every bit as legitimate as the other games. Secondly, all 5 of the inter-conference games involved the ACC's Top 4 teams by Sagarin (1. FSU, 2. GT, 3. Clemson x2, 4. Louisville) while on average we faced a below average slate from the SEC (4. Georgia x2, 10. Florida, 12. South Carolina, 13. Kentucky). Can you imagine if the shoe was on the other foot and the 5 games were (1. Alabama, 2. Ole Miss, 3. Mississippi State x2, 4. Georgia) facing off against (4. Louisville x2, 10. Pittsburgh, 12. North Carolina, 13. Syracuse)? If we went 1-4 in those matchups, we'd consider ourselves lucky.

Now, I do think the ACC's getting better as a conference. We've made incremental progress each of the past 4 years, and if we keep getting better, we should win more recruiting battles to the point that maybe 5 or 6 years down the line we'll be able to compete with the SEC on even terms. When we just keep mindlessly downgrading them as they dominate though, using cute little catch-phrases like SECSPN, it just makes us look like delusional homers incapable of looking at things rationally.

 

[Minawreck]

The SEC also has nice wins over good group of 5 teams like Utah state and Northern Illinois. They did well out of conference early in the season so they will get the benefit from Sagarin as the teams they beat continue to win. In reality Kansas State against Auburn was an example of K. State just playing awful and Melvin Gordon was apparently held from the game due to injury early in the second half against LSU prior to which point LSU was getting shellacked (there are conflicting reports on that...)

Sagarin can't see something like that.

 

[MWBATL]

They don't "dominate". That's really the point.

Yes, some years, perhaps even most years recently, they have been the better conference. But the margin is NOT and has NEVER been "dominating" the way SECSPN and their bevy of former SEC players like Pollock have made it sound. Myths about "SEC speed" abound, when the facts don't support the strength of the myth (every league has fast guys, and at the combine it is often a non SEC guy who is fastest).

You can choose to believe Sagarin if you like. Having watched a lot of football this year, I would say that UNC should beat at least half the SEC teams on any given night. Could lose to them (UNC is as inconsistent as it gets) but should beat 'em.

Putting it another way, the Nolan Power Index has the middle team of the ACC ranked in exactly the middle of SEC teams. It has the SEC as the strongest conference, and pending bowl game results that make sense, BUT it is the use of words like "dominating" that irk me (and many other fans). If you're a 3 point favorite at a neutral site, is that "dominate"? I don't think so.

Calm down dude. and please take your SEC love elsewhere. You're talking about a league that sells its soul for football, lies, cheats, steals, and makes a mockery of academics just short of the standard set by UNC. I'll let you go that route if the result is you're only slightly better (and that is, in any dispassionate view of the data, the accurate term for where they stand in relation to the rest of the college football world).

 

[danny daniel]

All I'm trying to say is that PJ seemed to be playing it too conservatively with the passing game. He seemed to be playing keep away instead of put this game away. I think when it was clear they were catching on to our running schemes and getting stops we should have let it rip. Not having Smelter in the game was a factor and it showed.

One FSU crucial mistake or one big defensive play by GT and we win. I suspect CPJ did not want to be the first to make that crucial mistake, especially since the safer run game was working pretty well. I agree with CPJ playing those percentages. FSU was good enough to play without helping us at all....a surprise compared to their season history.

 

[GT Man]

All I'm trying to say is that PJ seemed to be playing it too conservatively with the passing game. He seemed to be playing keep away instead of put this game away. I think when it was clear they were catching on to our running schemes and getting stops we should have let it rip. Not having Smelter in the game was a factor and it showed.

We were running it down their throats. FSU did indeed figure out what we were doing. We weren't even trying to hide it, but we shoved it up their *** anyways. No need to play the hindsight game here. FSU played an almost perfect game and we were within 2 points of beating a top 5 team (who really should have been at least #2).

 

[IEEEWreck]

It's funny how the betting market (group of experts looking at things as objectively as possible with millions of dollars on the line) and Sagarin (objective computer ranking deriving numbers solely from the scores of the games) both rate the SEC much, much higher than ESPN who's supposedly biased in favor of them.

Here are the ratings of the top 12 SEC teams according to the betting market:
http://stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/ncaaf.php

2. Alabama
5. Auburn
6. Georgia
7. Mississippi State
14. Ole Miss
16. LSU
19. Arkansas
22. Florida
28. Missouri
30. Texas A&M
33. South Carolina
34. Tennessee

And here they are by Sagarin, the top computer ranking:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

1. Alabama
4. Ole Miss
6. Mississippi State
8. Georgia
9. Auburn
11. LSU
13. Arkansas
16. Missouri
20. Texas A&M
21. Florida
29. Tennessee
37. South Carolina

Tells a pretty similar tale, doesn't it? Both clearly show that the SEC has gotten BETTER, not worse to the point that they're more dominant than ever and even their 12th best team would be above average in the ACC or Big Ten.

I keep hearing the 4-0 thing brought up a lot, and while that was a great moment in time for our conference, it doesn't really tell the tale. First off, we actually went 4-1 vs. the SEC this year, not 4-0 as Clemson's loss to Georgia was every bit as legitimate as the other games. Secondly, all 5 of the inter-conference games involved the ACC's Top 4 teams by Sagarin (1. FSU, 2. GT, 3. Clemson x2, 4. Louisville) while on average we faced a below average slate from the SEC (4. Georgia x2, 10. Florida, 12. South Carolina, 13. Kentucky). Can you imagine if the shoe was on the other foot and the 5 games were (1. Alabama, 2. Ole Miss, 3. Mississippi State x2, 4. Georgia) facing off against (4. Louisville x2, 10. Pittsburgh, 12. North Carolina, 13. Syracuse)? If we went 1-4 in those matchups, we'd consider ourselves lucky.

Now, I do think the ACC's getting better as a conference. We've made incremental progress each of the past 4 years, and if we keep getting better, we should win more recruiting battles to the point that maybe 5 or 6 years down the line we'll be able to compete with the SEC on even terms. When we just keep mindlessly downgrading them as they dominate though, using cute little catch-phrases like SECSPN, it just makes us look like delusional homers incapable of looking at things rationally.

1. You fundamentally misunderstand the nature of betting markets. The house seeks to take zero net position. Despite all the semi-mystical horse**** being passed around about the wisdom of crowds, cfb is very close to a structurally even information market.

Think about this: who do you think bets more money if they think their team will win: Tech and Stanford grads or Bama fans and nad lickers?

2. Sagarin in football is not unbiased. It needs a bayesean network of preseason rankings to work. In basketball the rankings become unbiased as the graph is filled out by games. In football it stops using the bn, but significant error gets introduced by sparse regions where conferences like the SEC play very few ooc games. Tellingly, the elo chess version of Sagarin doesnt rank the SEC nearly as highly.

Sagarin is just a mathematical formalization of "quality losses" without enough comparison games to work with.

3. Isn't the narrative that the whole SEC is better than the best of anyone else? I guess that's just going to be silently conceded to be crap.

Fun enough, your own arguments above work against your claim. The Sagarin ratings for intraSEC play where there is data present far less variation than other conferences. So statistically speaking, 4-1 works out to a (poisson for chained a> b) 98.378 confidence that those acc teams are better than those sec teams. We could do a cdf calculation to see the chance that the acc teams are at least as better as the top SEC teams.

But we'd be making wild guesses and our margin of error would show it. You're falling back into the only narrative that lacks compelling evidence to disprove it, only by virtue of the fact that the top of the SEC avoids power 5 ooc games like the plague.

And, even then the most recent data indicates the top of the acc (fsu) is better than the top of the SEC (bama).

So keep talking about all the reasons in the world that the record doesn't matter. Hell, the SEC can go be the most dominant conference in the modern geological epoch. They just can't claim to be the conference that wins the most.

 

[flounder]

And here they are by Sagarin, the top computer ranking:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

1. Alabama
4. Ole Miss
6. Mississippi State
8. Georgia
9. Auburn
11. LSU
13. Arkansas
16. Missouri
20. Texas A&M
21. Florida
29. Tennessee
37. South Carolina

Florida is the 21st best team in the nation? Their coach must be pretty good. I'll bet they're happy to have him.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

All of this discussion about the SEC's supposed dominance takes me back to last year. The SEC was counting on Auburn to beat FSU. When they didn't there was a slight shift in the "dominance" talk and it went kind of like this, "FSU is really an SEC team and really belongs in our conference, not the ACC, therefore this does not count as a real loss by the SEC against FSU." Do any of you remember that bullcrap?

Then we find out much later that the only reason Auburn was even able to keep it close was that they were stealing FSU's signals for most of the game.

But mostly, we get crickets when Auburn goes down, Alabama goes down, Georgia goes down and LSU goes down to an out of conference team.

 

[ATL1]

The problem was not lack of passing. The problem was that our defense could not stop FSU. CPJ called a near perfect game in terms of giving our defense as much rest as possible and keeping them off the field as much as possible.

Yes it was. It was 2 series to late for JT and Waller to get in sync. 3 straight series we limited FSU to field goals and we couldn't move the ball. Our lack of passing game played a big part.

 

[Animal02]

The problem was not lack of passing. The problem was that our defense could not stop FSU. CPJ called a near perfect game in terms of giving our defense as much rest as possible and keeping them off the field as much as possible.

FSU played a near perfect game.....Tech played a little less perfect. That fact is that we lost by only 2, and had a chance to win, while being outsized on D vs their O by an average of 60 lbs. That in itself is amazng.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

You know where the SEC dominates? They dominate the bottom of the list in average SAT scores for incoming freshman football players. They dominate the list of highest percent of illiterate players. They dominate the list of former players with worthless degrees. They dominate the list of former players on welfare or working in fast food.

 

[GTRX7]

Yes it was. It was 2 series to late for JT and Waller to get in sync. 3 straight series we limited FSU to field goals and we couldn't move the ball. Our lack of passing game played a big part.

I would argue the perimeter blocking is what primarily killed us in those three series. The plays were there to be made, we just didn't make them. In the UGA game, abandoning our passing was the only thing that allowed us to win. In a perfect world, we have both. However, I don't think we needed passing in either of those games to win. Go back and look at some of our biggest victories under Paul Johnson. I think you will be surprised to see that those games are, by and large, also the games where we generally have the lowest passing attempts.

That said, we missed Smelter. I am convinced that 4th and 5 would have looked different with him.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I would argue the perimeter blocking is what primarily killed us in those three series. The plays were there to be made, we just didn't make them. In the UGA game, abandoning our passing was the only thing that allowed us to win. In a perfect world, we have both. However, I don't think we needed passing in either of those games to win. Go back and look at some of our biggest victories under Paul Johnson. I think you will be surprised to see that those games are, by and large, also the games where we generally have the lowest passing attempts.

That said, we missed Smelter. I am convinced that 4th and 5 would have looked different with him.

And I would point out that in the second half we "beat" FSU 14-9. One more defensive stop in the first half and we would have coasted to victory.

 

[Minawreck]

Yes it was. It was 2 series to late for JT and Waller to get in sync. 3 straight series we limited FSU to field goals and we couldn't move the ball. Our lack of passing game played a big part.

I think with the game within 1 possession we were still in ball control and play for the last possession mode from a strategic standpoint. It's hard to argue with that strategy since FSU scored on nearly every possession.