S&P 2019 season projections

[RickStromFan]

Well, according to several posters here.....yes, our wins over good opponents were all luck and are loses were because we were just bad. No luck involved by the other teams.

you are relentless.

 

[tmhunter52]

I wouldn't expect us to lose to all of those teams, because it's rare for GT to be worse than 6-6, but I do expect our offense to take a big step back. Our defense can only get better, and the same can be said about ST, but overall I expect us to win 4 games at the floor or 7 at the ceiling, which would be a great season in the first year of a new coach. Our past scheme gave us a big advantage going into the 08/09 season and we had some special talent on those teams on both sides of the ball. Not sure I see Dwyer, Nesbit, Bebe, Morgan, Johnson etc on this team. There are some special players like Juane, but not sure we have the schematic advantage or quite as many NFL type guys on the roster right now. Time will tell though.

I won’t be surprised if we run a lot of CPJ’s playbook next year. Our players are suited for it and the opposition won’t be preparing for it to the same degree as before. The OC is said to tailor his offense to the talent he has.

 

[Jacket Bracket]

I won’t be surprised if we run a lot of CPJ’s playbook next year. Our players are suited for it and the opposition won’t be preparing for it to the same degree as before. The OC is said to tailor his offense to the talent he has.

I hope you are correct. It would give us the best chance to win.

 

[GTRambler]

I hope you are correct. It would give us the best chance to win.

It will be interesting to see what OC Dave Patenaude will do. But I don’t think it will be a spread option from the flexbone formation ... perhaps it might be more like a run-oriented spread option like what Georgia Southern now does with the QB in shotgun formation.

However, I don’t know if Patenaude has ever coached that type of a system before. I don’t know enough about his coaching history — and his coaching philosophy — to know.

 

[RyanS12]

Patenaude ran some 3O out of the gun at Coastal Carolina. I hope/expect to see a decent amount of it the next couple seasons with a good amount of RPO mixed in as well. He said he will run a scheme that fits what we have and that seems to be why we’re built for over the next few years.

 

[GTRambler]

Patenaude ran some 3O out of the gun at Coastal Carolina. I hope/expect to see a decent amount of it the next couple seasons with a good amount of RPO mixed in as well. He said he will run a scheme that fits what we have and that seems to be why we’re built for over the next few years.

Well, if so. Patenaude won’t have much time to install it and decide which players to do it with. He will only have several weeks of spring practice, and then several more weeks of fall practice, to get the offense ready for the season opener.

And all of that practice time will need to be intense and well planned, with lots of repetition.

By the way, CPJ did it very well in his first season on The Flats. That will be a high bar for Patenaude to duplicate ... but I hope he’s up to the task, in whatever system he wants to install.

 

[Jacket05]

In one of the interviews Patenaude mentioned that the offense will likely include some triple option but it will look different than what we are used to.

 

[ATL1]

My only concern with the transition is with the Oline. The skill positions should be fine.

 

[GTRambler]

Not to be overlooked is the fact that Patenaude will be working with Brent Key, whose title is Assistant Head Coach-Run Game Coordinator-Offensive Line.

Patenude’s title is Offensive Coordinator-Quarterbacks.

Judging solely by these titles, it reads to me that Patenaude would report to Brent Key, and Key would report to Collins — because Key is “Assistant Head Coach” and Patenaude is not.

In addition, this will be the first time these two guys will be working together on the same team.

Not sure how these two would actually mesh together and/or work out from an hierarchical organizational perspective. But it certainly would be something to closely watch.

 

[takethepoints]

Best thing this team could do is not focus on what the pundits say and just execute like we know they can.

Hmmmmm. And we know how they execute based on …?

I think the rankings on this are out of line with our talent, but I'll admit to doubts as to whether we will use that talent efficiently. We'll be fielding a new offense and a new defense based on spring and fall practice. This normally doesn't bode well for the teams doing it. I said elsewhere that I expected us to be running around like chickens with their heads cut off for the first 4 - 5 games.

I hope I'm wrong and that we can put in simplified schemes that will minimize our transitional woes. (Yes, that'll mean a lot of running on O and less blitzing on D.) All we can do is hope the football gods smile on us and that Coach and co. prove to be really, really good at their jobs.

 

[FightWinDrink]

is there an over/under wins of 1 that I can bet on then based off this?

 

[RonJohn]

Agree about rankings getting blurry the further away from the top. The weighting of recent recruiting classes is his attempt to show that needs filling. Returning production is far and out the highest predictor, and it effect defense way more than it does offense. Losing 8 starters on defense hurts way more than the few we are losing but on offense. Schedule isn really taken into effect yet. Only as a standardization for games already played. Because it’s for the 2019 season, it only counts 2015 onward, with 2018 having the largest impact and that diminishing over time with 2019 taking over with more data. It also uses every single play and was last the year the highest accuracy against the spread vs the 75 other models tracked on predictiontracker, so it’s not likes it’s a terrible model. At the end of the day it’s still a model. Preseason stuff is still usually pretty wild

I would say that preseason stuff isn't just wild, it is purely speculative. At this point, it is possible that Clemson's entire two-deep could be suspended for PEDs for the first third of the season. Or that Saban could decide to retire. Or that one of the top teams could have a Marshall like tragic accident and not even field a team. I'm not predicting, expecting, hoping, or even thinking there is more than a miniscule chance of any of those happening. I was just trying to point out that there is no scientific method to predict how teams will fare next year. There are some fairly safe assumptions(Alabama and Clemson will be good, etc.). However, the only use for any predictions at this point are just to open conversations about what people think might happen next year.(Basically entertainment) I don't have any issues with such things as long as people don't believe that such predictions are factual or scientific.

 

[grandpa jacket]

My only concern with the transition is with the Oline. The skill positions should be fine.

I agree we do have athletes returning for a decent skill positions team, learning blocking scheme with such a short time to prepare worries me

 

[g0lftime]

We will have a little advantage in that early teams will not have a good chance to scout us. We will make mistakes but hope we can avoid a rash of turnovers.

 

[smathis30]

I would say that preseason stuff isn't just wild, it is purely speculative. At this point, it is possible that Clemson's entire two-deep could be suspended for PEDs for the first third of the season. Or that Saban could decide to retire. Or that one of the top teams could have a Marshall like tragic accident and not even field a team. I'm not predicting, expecting, hoping, or even thinking there is more than a miniscule chance of any of those happening. I was just trying to point out that there is no scientific method to predict how teams will fare next year. There are some fairly safe assumptions(Alabama and Clemson will be good, etc.). However, the only use for any predictions at this point are just to open conversations about what people think might happen next year.(Basically entertainment) I don't have any issues with such things as long as people don't believe that such predictions are factual or scientific.

There is a ton of data behind showing correlations between prior year performance and returning starters to make a reasonable assumption about it. Most major rankings didn’t start using it until a few years ago, and it’s not like they would be using it if it didn’t make their rankings more accurate. It’s not and end all be all that will always be accurate (he had UL preseason too 25 last year, and GT just outside the top top 25), but it was more accurate then not so it stayed. Obviously a lot can happen in between now and then (especially injuries and transfers), but if it wasn’t meaningful or added accuracy, then most ranking systems would use it

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I look for us to be 70 to 30 run to pass or thereabouts. Will probably run a lot of option out of the gun.

 

[alagold]

I 'm not sure I agree with their approach but the result has GOT to get the attention of a some of the "blue-sky" Tech folks. We are in a HUGE change with limited talent at some positions ---AND an unknown QB.We could be dead last. Not likely but possible.

 

[GoldZ]

Imagine how many hours Clems platoon of analysts will pour over Temple's and even Coastal's films. Thacker not blitzing at Clem is a scary thing. Good news is, Clem and ugag are the only complete mis-matches. A W in six of the rest is reasonable. A 3-4 win season will derail at least a portion of the hype train and give opposing recruiters more ammo.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

No one is going to know how to predict us this year and most are going to err on the low side. I have come to terms with it.

That's philosophical of you.

 

[GTJake]

The Clemson game could be a nightmare scenario ... for them.
They won't know what to prepare for and the whole Clemson nation will be there for a party to celebrate the National Championship.