Record when scoring 30+ 25+, and 20+ points

[dressedcheeseside]

In 2013, GT was number 59 in points scored against FBS teams at 29.1

In 2013, GT was number 57 in points allowed against FBS teams at 26.4.

Now, what needs improvement?

That's interesting, but insufficient. It hides what really matters, efficiency. Our offense limits possessions and total plays, so naturally we'd score less per game. What really matters is points per possession and points per play. Football Outsiders did a very comprehensive analysis on this very thing for both offenses and defenses and call it their S&P ratings/rankings. Our O blows away our D in this analysis.

Just to summarize, our O ranks #21 vs all other offenses in S&P. Conversely our D ranks #68 vs all other defenses.

Check it out. I feel this is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more indicative on where we stand on O and D than just simply comparing points scored vs points allowed. Sometimes you have to dig a little and get behind the numbers to find the truth.
offense
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

defense
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef

For those who don't want to open the links, here's their methodology:

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

• Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
• EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
• Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.
• Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Look, so in football the only stats that really matter are points scored and points allowed. All of the other stuff is just a means to an end.

I disagree. Maybe when it comes to wins and losses, yes, but when it comes to knowing which unit is your weak link, not by a long shot. See my post above.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I forgot to mention that the S&P ratings above are adjusted for SoS which make them even more meaningful in comparison to overall points scored/allowed.

 

[bke1984]

Those ranking further support the argument though...they show that the offense is pretty good (not great) and the defense is pretty bad (not dumpster fire).

I don't always agree with making adjustments for SoS though, as you're in a catch-22. Which do you calculate first? If you first calculate SoS, aren't you making an adjustment on a number that is incorrect, since you haven't reached the final results yet? At any rate, I agree with the concept, and I was thinking about how to calculate that same info for historical data, but unfortunately, that data is not readily available back to 1892...

So I went ahead and further broke the numbers down by coach.

Gailey and O'Leary did a pretty good job of winning when Tech scored in the 20-29 range, while Johnson has not. Conversely, Johnson and O'Leary did a pretty good job of winning even when giving up 30-39 points on defense, while Gailey went 0-11 when an opponent scored 30+.

Interesting how similar the Johnson numbers look to the O'Leary numbers...

__________

 

[bke1984]

I disagree. Maybe when it comes to wins and losses, yes, but when it comes to knowing which unit is your weak link, not by a long shot. See my post above.

Yeah, I agree that there are better stats for figuring that out, and the ones you presented are excellent. Great addition, thanks for the reply!

 

[awbuzz]

bke1984 darn good data sets. Thanks for putting it together.

 

[bke1984]

With all this talk of the stats, I got to thinking...rankings and statistics don't really measure a team's ability to make a play in the clutch. One of the things I think we've lacked on both sides of the ball in the past two seasons is players that can make a huge play in a critical situation. Maybe they were just off years, but this was something the '98, '99, '06, and '09 teams had that we've lacked here recently.

Granted, if the offense keeps performing as it has and the defense moves up into the 20's for the S&P rankings provided, we'd win more games, but I think we could also get a big bump from some big time play-makers even if the defense. However, I guess having those would go ahead and increase the rankings of the defense, wouldn't it?

I think this is what made the '98 team as special as it was. Hamilton aside, we scored 11 defensive touchdowns that year! Some teams go an entire season without one of those (multiple seasons, in fact). The UVA game could have easily gone the other way without the defensive score and the Rogers punt return.

Anyone know of a statistic that measures your defense's performance in critical situations? Some obvious ones I can think of are red zone defense, third down efficiency, and fourth down efficiency...is there anything out there that measure the "2-minute defense?"

 

[Boomergump]

Failure to finish has been our biggest problem in recent years. Lots of very winnable games have slipped through our fingers. Both offense and defense have contributed.

 

[4shotB]

Failure to finish has been our biggest problem in recent years. Lots of very winnable games have slipped through our fingers. Both offense and defense have contributed.

I wish there was someway to calculate this stat. In basketball, how many guys out there score 25 points when the team is winning at home by a comfortable margin but can't get a dozen in a close game on the road? Tiger Woods - give him a lead going into Sunday and he is almost invincible. Put him 2 shots back and he is going to beat nobody. I think baseball has ways of separating statistically the fly crap from the pepper - they can measure how well a guy performs at crunch time. one way is batting average vs. BA with runners in scoring position. Or for a relief pitcher - they measure not only saves but save opportunities blown. maybe it is perception, but I agree with your premise - our team tends to perform well below their own statistical mean in crunch time. Like any true Tech grad, I wish we had data on this rather than averages.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I wish there was someway to calculate this stat. In basketball, how many guys out there score 25 points when the team is winning at home by a comfortable margin but can't get a dozen in a close game on the road? Tiger Woods - give him a lead going into Sunday and he is almost invincible. Put him 2 shots back and he is going to beat nobody. I think baseball has ways of separating statistically the fly crap from the pepper - they can measure how well a guy performs at crunch time. one way is batting average vs. BA with runners in scoring position. Or for a relief pitcher - they measure not only saves but save opportunities blown. maybe it is perception, but I agree with your premise - our team tends to perform well below their own statistical mean in crunch time. Like any true Tech grad, I wish we had data on this rather than averages.

There is some data. OT record is one. Games decided by a single score is another. Not sure anybody tabulates these stats, but they're out there. One could also chart single score leads defended and attacked in endgame scenarios (within final 5 minutes). Individual stats could also be charted for these same scenarios. The problem is nobody tabulates these specific stats right now, but that doesn't mean it can't be done.