Realistic expectations for 2016?

CobbTech

CobbTech

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
286
OOC games: Mercer, Vanderbilt, Georgia Southern, at UGA
Conference: Duke, Miami, Virginia, Clemson, at VT, at Pitt, at VT, BC (neutral site)

What is a realistic expectation for next season? I know a lot can happen from now until kickoff. But looking at our schedule and considering we went 3-9 last year, I only see one game that we can absolutely put a W next to and only one game we can put an L next to. Mercer and Clemson. People will probably argue that we can beat Clemson but with a healthy Deshaun Watson back next year, I just don't see it happening.

Looking at all of the other games, I really have no idea what to expect. I want to be optimistic with all of the people we are returning whether it's from injuries or transfer or whatever. I'm always concerned about our D and I think next year will be no different. We won't be good again.

Is 8-4 unrealistic?
 

a5ehren

Jolly Good Fellow
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457
We have 4 teams with new HCs on the schedule. Hard to tell right now how that all will turn out...8-4 should be achievable.
 

takethepoints

Helluva Engineer
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5,909
That's about what I'd predict: 7 or 8 wins. I think we can win the games with Mercer, Vandy, GSU, Duke, UVA, BC, and VT. All those programs are either in flux (Duke, UVA, VT) or not even as good as we were this year (BC, Mercer, Vandy) or have a hard time beating us in the best of circumstances (GSU). I also think we can beat Pitt; they'll be no better next year and we nearly did it this year. Miami is a maybe; it'll depend on how the team adjusts to Richt. Kaaya is his kind of QB, but they are beatable. Clemson is here and everybody seems to think we can't beat them. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 2012 myself. We beat Taj Boyd; we can handle Watson. Ugag is there and will also be adjusting to a new coach. That'll depend on intangibles more then anything else, imho. They're like da U; who knows how they'll turn out?

And then there's the problem that all those players we were going to get field experience this year won't have it. I was pencilling us in for 8 - 4 in 2015 and an MNC run in 2016, JT's senior year. Now, we're back to square one with a bunch of good athletes who should have a year on the field under their belt and don't. Sooooo … 8 - 4 due to our needing to get everyone sorted out as the season progresses. At least we don't have to play ND or FSU.
 
redmule

redmule

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
664
Got to see the schedule first. I thought it was set up great this year to build momentum. Just like in Deformable Bodies or Dynamics classes, I often got the quantity right, but the direction wrong. We built a hell of a lot of momentum, but it was in the wrong direction. Also, the schedule will tell us what Top 10-15 team we are going to surprise and who the trap game is. Then there's always the brainfart game.
 

MtownJacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
84
My "realistic" win probabilities:

Mercer - 0.9
Vanderbilt - 0.7
Georgia Southern - 0.8 (would be lower if Fritz stayed)
UGA - 0.3
Duke - 0.5
Miami - 0.6
Virginia - 0.7
Clemson - 0.3
VPISU - 0.5
UNC - 0.4
Pitt - 0.4
BC - 0.7

Probability of winning at least:

1 - 0.99999
2 - 0.999746
3 - 0.997168
4 - 0.982132 (98% chance of winning at least 4, man 2015 sucked)
5 - 0.927378
6 - 0.795346
7 - 0.578202
8 - 0.331961
9 - 0.140337
10 - 0.04028
11 - 0.006924
12 - 0.000533

7 wins looks about right. Although I won't be happy with anything fewer than 9. We need a strong bounceback and five of the teams on our schedule have a brand new head coach, so my expectations are high.
 

tugdog235

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
58
JT was still a baller all year. He just had no room to work in. He kept us in games when the rest of team looked ready to break.

Actually, that's what keeps me hopeful about 2016. I thought the team fought when they could've given up. Yes we came out flat at times, especially early in the season, but I figure all those close games have to even out somewhere eventually.
 

65Jacket

GT Athlete
Messages
1,168
This team had more adversity than any of us know. A lot of the players who played were not 100% physically. CPJ is a very competitive person and he says he is going to fix it. I think he will fix it, and we will win at least 8 games. The only downside going in is that many of the better rated young players did not get to develop due to injuries. But, they at least have the advantage of a year in the weight room and a Spring practice.
 
AE 87

AE 87

Helluva Engineer
Messages
13,016
MtownJacket said:
My "realistic" win probabilities:

Mercer - 0.9
Vanderbilt - 0.7
Georgia Southern - 0.8 (would be lower if Fritz stayed)
UGA - 0.3
Duke - 0.5
Miami - 0.6
Virginia - 0.7
Clemson - 0.3
VPISU - 0.5
UNC - 0.4
Pitt - 0.4
BC - 0.7

Probability of winning at least:

1 - 0.99999
2 - 0.999746
3 - 0.997168
4 - 0.982132 (98% chance of winning at least 4, man 2015 sucked)
5 - 0.927378
6 - 0.795346
7 - 0.578202
8 - 0.331961
9 - 0.140337
10 - 0.04028
11 - 0.006924
12 - 0.000533

7 wins looks about right. Although I won't be happy with anything fewer than 9. We need a strong bounceback and five of the teams on our schedule have a brand new head coach, so my expectations are high.
Click to expand...

Do you have any idea how painful this post is for people who care about precision?
 

a5ehren

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
457
Ibeeballin said:
Ive been waiting for this thread. Why expectations should be any different than they were prior to this season? It was earmarked by the majority that 2015 was suppose to be setback year for a big 2016. If you still believe that, why should anything change?
Click to expand...
I was expecting a "setback" to look like 6-6 or 7-5, not 3-9.

I know we had a bunch of late rallies that fell short that would swing it, but it is really hard to come out and predict that these guys will come out and win 10+ next season after the blocking we saw in 2015.
 

MtownJacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
84
Well, maybe expectations were unreasonably high in 2015. I'm not saying GT can't meet or exceed the performance of 2014, but in retrospect we had some luck on our side. Our excellent turnover margin was in part due to guys like DJ White making plays, but luck comes into play with turnover margin. Similarly, we were freakishly good on 3rd and long in 2014, then 2015 came around and Justin's completion percentage only dropped by 10% while our 3rd and long percentage dropped way way more than that. We made plays at exactly the right time in 2014, but when we made plays in 2015 it wasn't when they were needed most.

I think 2014 GT was lucky and 2015 GT was unlucky (on top of injuries and youth), and who knows if GT will be lucky again in 2016?
 

JorgeJonas

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,147
I think 2014 we leaned lucky, but we weren't crazily so. 2015 was crazily unlucky. It seems strange to want to put a prediction out so early, so I'll refrain. I will say my expectation for the offense is that it will be significantly better. I don't know that it'll be 2014 good, but it's going to be good. I don't believe Johnson will tolerate 2015 again.
 

alagold

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,525
Location
Huntsville,Al
Its a helluva lot harder to climb up from 3-9 then it is to drop to 3-9.If for no other reason the other teams has more confidence they can beat you than before. otoh-- we have an easier schedule
Anything above 6-6 would be appreciated at this point.
 
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