Postseason Chances?

[mstranahan]

Barring an amazing run through the next seven conference games (including @ ND, @ Cuse), I think it's going to take 3 wins in the ACCT for us to make it to the dance. If we finish up with 13 losses (2 in reg season & 1 in ACCT), I think we're on the outside looking in without some luck. If we win 6 of 7 (so 11-7 in ACC) we're in, but I think that's an enormous task.
ND will be looking for revenge and they're much tougher at home than on the road.
Sweeping Syracuse is a very tall order. Especially with how well they're playing right now. I think we can beat them at home if we play well, but the game in Syracuse is a tough one.
I think home games with BC, Pitt & NCSU are all winnable, as is road game at Miami.
If we win all four home games and @ Miami, it puts us at 10-8 in the conference. That should be enough but it's very very rare for a team with 13 losses to get an at large berth. The strength of the ACC might help us this year. Obviously, beating UNC, FSU, ND and Cuse would be a huge tilt in our favor.
If we lose three more in reg season, I think we're in NIT

Either way, I am psyched about what this team has accomplished. If we make the NIT, it is far more than I ever expected at the outset of the season

 

[RamblinRed]

5-2 is still the number for me. Get 5 more ACC wins - in the regular season - and you are in.

FWIW, we are still in SI's bracket today as an 11 seed.

if you are either in the bracket or in that first four out you really control your destiny. Just win games - which is what this team needs, more wins.

i don't expect this team to make the Tourney, but it is nice to be able to legitimately talk about it. Given i expected the team to win 2-3 ACC Games i'm really impressed with what the players and coaches have accomplished to this point and hope they can win a few more - even an NIT bid would be a huge win for this team.

 

[McCamish Maniacs]

Div II schools do not count for NCAA purposes. That is why they have a little box at the bottom left of the datasheets for non Div 1 games.

The games themselves do not count. They will not appear in the RPI calculations. The win or loss will not appear in your overall record.
UGA has a similar situation from playing Morehouse earlier this year.

We have 7 games left that count. Go 5-2 and GT gets an NCAA bid (imo). Anything less and probably have to get to at least Sunday of the ACC tourney.

Right now my expectation is that GT will fall to the first four out on most brackets on Monday. Wake will likely move into one of the First Four games. Miami with their win should move to a 10/11 seed.
Pitt and NCST would almost have to win out at this point and BC has no postseason.

Needed a split this week to stay in brackets, not surprised we didn't get one. I'm still expecting a Feb swoon due to lack of depth.

I can't figure this out.



In an odd twist, Tech is counting the game toward its record but Tusculum is playing it as an exhibition, which NCAA rules somehow allow. By the time the game was contracted, Tusculum had already met its limit of regular-season games.

Division I and Division II teams often play in season-opening exhibitions, such as Tech’s against Shorter. But it’s not unheard of for a power-conference team to play a regular-season game against a Division II team. Georgia played Morehouse in November. Tusculum played Tennessee in Jan. 2014. The same month, Pastner and Memphis faced LeMoyne Owen. Tech last played a regular-season game against a Division II opponent in Jan. 2010 (Kentucky State, then coached by former Tech forward Clarence Moore.)

For the Division I team, it has the benefit of counting toward its record but not its RPI score, where a game against a lower-tier mid-major could hurt its RPI.

 

[jeffgt14]

Hey that works. Adds a W to the resume without hurting RPI. That’s much better than a W against a low mid major and hurting our RPI.

 

[RamblinRed]

It's only a W (or L) for the GT record books (and Pastner's record as a HC).
It will have no impact on the W/L record or RPI for either the NCAA or NIT. It does not count toward those. At the end of the season GT's record for NCAA and NIT purposes will be the 30 regular season games excluding Tusculum and anything from the ACC Tourney.

Think of it this way. right now GT has a record of 13-10. It's record come the end of the regular season from an NCAA Tourney standpoint will be 13-10 plus the wins and losses from the 7 remaining ACC games. That's why I keep saying 5-2. That would make GT 18-12 going into the ACC tourney from an NCAA Committee standpoint.

 

[McCamish Maniacs]

It's only a W (or L) for the GT record books (and Pastner's record as a HC).
It will have no impact on the W/L record or RPI for either the NCAA or NIT. It does not count toward those. At the end of the season GT's record for NCAA and NIT purposes will be the 30 regular season games excluding Tusculum and anything from the ACC Tourney.

Think of it this way. right now GT has a record of 13-10. It's record come the end of the regular season from an NCAA Tourney standpoint will be 13-10 plus the wins and losses from the 7 remaining ACC games. That's why I keep saying 5-2. That would make GT 18-12 going into the ACC tourney from an NCAA Committee standpoint.

Whoa whoa whoa you're saying ACC tourney doesn't count...? Since when?

 

[RamblinRed]

ACC tourney counts.
But, it is almost impossible to get a bid with 14 losses - it has happened very infrequently, so you want to make sure you have no more than 12 losses entering the ACC Tourney.
But my belief is that if GT gets to 18-12, the ACC Tourney likely won't matter, they will likely be in without needing to win an ACC tourney game.

 

[McCamish Maniacs]

ACC tourney counts.
But, it is almost impossible to get a bid with 14 losses - it has happened very infrequently, so you want to make sure you have no more than 12 losses entering the ACC Tourney.
But my belief is that if GT gets to 18-12, the ACC Tourney likely won't matter, they will likely be in without needing to win an ACC tourney game.

Yes yes I agree. I misunderstood what you were saying.

 

[BigDaddyBuzz]

Pulling for Notre Dame and Syracuse tonight

 

[RamblinRed]

My fav article of the week, the SI bubble watch. SI currently has GT as an 11 seed.

They do an excellent job of going through every possible bubble team from every conference and letting you know the good and the bad. The discussion on Wake and GT's respective resumes is very interesting. GT also gets mentioned when they talk about Wichita St and ill St.

Biggest thing this week is GT must beat BC. That is a loss i doubt they could recover from.

interesting that the ACC, B10 and B12 could eat up most of the bubble spots due to the weaknesses of the mid major conferences this season as well as weak years by the SEC and PAC12.

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/07/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-acc-big-12-big-ten

 

[tsrich]

Sports radio here in the triangle was talking Wake bball this afternoon, and their NCAA chances. Their biggest problem was their lack of signature wins.

It was nice to hear we are one of their better wins, or as the talking head put it 'wins over fellow bubble teams....Georgia Tech'. Given my expectation of 1-2 ACC wins, that's like a miracle.

 

[CuseJacket]

Not surprisingly we are in Eamonn Brennan's 'Work Left To Do' category in today's Bubble Watch on ESPN

Georgia Tech [13-10 (5-6), RPI: 75, SOS: 42] Kudos to Josh Pastner, in his first year in Atlanta, where the Yellow Jackets, despite looking like the league's obvious non-Boston College whipping boy, have beaten UNC, Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame (all at home) and VCU on the road. The challenge ahead is less about acquiring impressive wins than just plain winning; the only top-half team left on the schedule is Notre Dame.

 

[RyanS12]

If we enter the ACCT square on the bubble the best seed to hope for is the 10 or 11 spot. Don't know if that's were we will wind up but that's the best looking position to steal 2 wins. Get a 14 or 15 the first day and a 6 or 7 the second. 2 wins would be huge if we ended up 9-9. 10-8 would be a lock. 9-9 I think would take 2 wins to be safe. Win 1 and we need the mid majors to hold serve and not have anyone steal an automatic spot.

 

[BigDaddyBuzz]

Good night for us last night with ND & Syracuse winning and Penn St knocking off maryland.

 

[lover1971]

Tech can only have two ACC losses, and they would need to win at least two ACC tournament games to get in the "Big Dance".

 

[orientalnc]

Good night for us last night with ND & Syracuse winning and Penn St knocking off maryland.

I am not sure how anything that happened last night helped us. We have a difficult task ahead and our fate does not really depend on what happens in other games. The most likely path for us is that we sweep the four remaining home games and win one on the road. If we lose one of those four games at McCamish, the road ahead looks very steep.

If anything, last night made me less confident. Syracuse looks like a tough out for us, even at home. They do not defend well consistently, but are tough to stop on the other end. I thought they might be getting tired legs when they play us in Atlanta, but their starters are playing a lot of minutes and did not look fatigued last night at the final buzzer. Lydon, White III and Gillon never sat for 40 minutes. Battle played 33 minutes and nailed a trey to win as time expired.

Our best chance on the road has to be in Miami and that scares me. Also, NC State at home will not be a gimme.

 

[BigDaddyBuzz]

I am not sure how anything that happened last night helped us. We have a difficult task ahead and our fate does not really depend on what happens in other games. The most likely path for us is that we sweep the four remaining home games and win one on the road. If we lose one of those four games at McCamish, the road ahead looks very steep.

If anything, last night made me less confident. Syracuse looks like a tough out for us, even at home. They do not defend well consistently, but are tough to stop on the other end. I thought they might be getting tired legs when they play us in Atlanta, but their starters are playing a lot of minutes and did not look fatigued last night at the final buzzer. Lydon, White III and Gillon never sat for 40 minutes. Battle played 33 minutes and nailed a trey to win as time expired.

Our best chance on the road has to be in Miami and that scares me. Also, NC State at home will not be a gimme.

Obviously us winning is the key. 5-2 finish is a lock in my opinion. We have a shot if we go 4-3 with other "bubble" teams like Clemson and Wake losing. Plus if we can beat Syracuse that win would look better. Every game scares me and of course there are no givens. Just trying to keep hope alive.

 

[RamblinRed]

CBSSports has gone into their bubble mode.

First is their daily article updating every game by bubble teams and what their win or loss means.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...-wins-for-michigan-cuse-disaster-for-iowa-st/

Second is their bubble watch. GT is currently in the on the force tab for this

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch

 

[CuseJacket]

I am not sure how anything that happened last night helped us. We have a difficult task ahead and our fate does not really depend on what happens in other games. The most likely path for us is that we sweep the four remaining home games and win one on the road. If we lose one of those four games at McCamish, the road ahead looks very steep.

If anything, last night made me less confident. Syracuse looks like a tough out for us, even at home. They do not defend well consistently, but are tough to stop on the other end. I thought they might be getting tired legs when they play us in Atlanta, but their starters are playing a lot of minutes and did not look fatigued last night at the final buzzer. Lydon, White III and Gillon never sat for 40 minutes. Battle played 33 minutes and nailed a trey to win as time expired.

Our best chance on the road has to be in Miami and that scares me. Also, NC State at home will not be a gimme.

Despite the fact that Syracuse will be tired and injured for our end of year home-and-home (tic), those two games are turning into bad timing for GT. We would have beaten Syracuse handily at home, at the very least, a few weeks ago. 'Cuse was a cluster on both ends. Now it's a coin flip. Syracuse is still flawed on defense, however the game will be made easier for them by virtue of not having to guard Heath, Heyward or Moore on the perimeter. It will be obvious. I could see McCormick getting legit minutes as long as we hide him in zone defensively. GT's mixing defenses may be able to cause confusion as it has against better offensive teams.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

The biggest issue for the Jackets for the rest of the season is injury. The evidence is stout that the schemes, scouting, preparation, and determination of the team lets them compete with anyone on any day. But Q, Tadric and now Heath all have hurt ankles. Moore is getting a shot to try and mask his abdominal injury for the rest of the season and if it doesn't take then he is out. AD out.

I consider this a fantastic year when it is injuries that could derail the team at the end given preseason expectations and the known lack of depth.