Postseason Chances?

[RamblinCharger]

I've never thought that RPI was determinative in getting into the tournament. A minimum number of wins has seemed to be a bigger factor for major conference teams. In years gone by, it seems like its 19 wins some years, 2o in others.

20 win majors with lower RPIs have gotten in with 18 win majors having higher RPIs left out. I believe the higher win numbers--posted with the selections on CBS--look good and subject the committee to less criticism. CBS doesn't post RPIs.

I believe that RPIs do matter with seeding. But you have to get in for the RPI to matter.

I just hope we can find the 3 or 4 more wins I think it will take to get into the NIT.

I agree with your thinking, but I'm not sure that it is always the case. I think the committee really breaks it down team by team using their scoring sheets or whatever. I have a team in mind to play deviled advocate. Let's say that Auburn finishes 20-10 and GT finishes 18-12. Let's say both teams win 1 conference tournament game. In this scenario both teams can't make it in, do they let GT in or Auburn? I think Tech would get in for playing in a tougher conference and for having better wins. And I think we would finish with a higher RPI as well, which would matter. Right now Auburn is around 58. JMO

 

[RamblinCharger]

Double Post

 

[CuseJacket]

I've never thought that RPI was determinative in getting into the tournament. A minimum number of wins has seemed to be a bigger factor for major conference teams. In years gone by, it seems like its 19 wins some years, 2o in others.

20 win majors with lower RPIs have gotten in with 18 win majors having higher RPIs left out. I believe the higher win numbers--posted with the selections on CBS--look good and subject the committee to less criticism. CBS doesn't post RPIs.

I believe that RPIs do matter with seeding. But you have to get in for the RPI to matter.

I just hope we can find the 3 or 4 more wins I think it will take to get into the NIT.

RPI matters right now from selection to seeding. To your point, the metric's influence vs. other data probably depends on the year/make-up of the committee and what they value most.

Published Jan 13th this year:
NCAA officials to consider new metric in tourney selection process

The NCAA tournament selection committee's reliance on the RPI as a significant metric could end soon, with officials set to consult analytics experts on Jan. 20 in Indianapolis and discuss the creation of a new standard of analysis.

Gavitt said the National Association of Basketball Coaches wants advanced metrics -- an "even more powerful microscope" -- to play a bigger role in the selection process. That prompted next week's meeting.

 

[MikeJackets]

... and back in October, we'd been glad to get there.

I think GT could win the NIT and that could provide a lot of momentum going into the 2017-2018 season.

 

[CuseJacket]

Also went back... I remembered Michigan State squeeked in with few wins in part due to strong SOS/RPI once or twice.

In '10-'11, they went 17-13 regular season, went 2-1 in the Big 10 tourney, and got in the NCAA tournament at 19-14. Their nonconference schedule included South Carolina, UConn, #13 Washington, #1 Duke, #8 Syracuse, and #18 Texas. They went 2-4 there.

So 19 wins post-conference tournament may be a mark for us to consider. Mich St. only beat 2 top 20 teams the entire season, but their RPI/SOS looked good on selection Sunday due to (losing against) tough opponents in the nonconference.

 

[MikeJackets]

Also went back... I remembered Michigan State squeeked in with few wins in part due to strong SOS/RPI once or twice.

In '10-'11, they went 17-13 regular season, went 2-1 in the Big 10 tourney, and got in the NCAA tournament at 19-14. Their nonconference schedule included South Carolina, UConn, #13 Washington, #1 Duke, #8 Syracuse, and #18 Texas. They went 2-4 there.

So 19 wins post-conference tournament may be a mark for us to consider. Mich St. only beat 2 top 20 teams the entire season, but their RPI/SOS looked good on selection Sunday due to (losing against) tough opponents in the nonconference.

I remember one year back in the 1980s(I believe it was during the 1983-1984 season)Virginia went to the Final Four after going 18-14 in the regular season.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I've heard this statement before but am looking for something to back it up. I know everyone likes Cinderella once the tourney starts. One notable exception to Cinderella getting in the tournament was just last year - Monmouth.

Folks should really pay attention to Bracketmatrix which aggregates tournament projections from 50 sources or so. On the average, GT is on the outside looking in right now.

Yeah, I was adding to @jeffgt14 's point about how some people still have Tech in their brackets. I am not claiming the good vibes will carry the day in the end with the committee.

 

[RamblinRed]

I think what gets you changes from year to year depending upon what other bubble teams looks like.

SI had a great article this week on how the ACC, Big10, Big12 could end up with over half of the at large bids due to the weaknesses of the mid-majors and the lack of depth in the Pac12 and SEC.

i think if GT gets to 18 regular season wins they are in, period. GT has an advantage that most teams don't by having 4 wins against teams in the Top 40. GT's weakness as Jerry Palm pointed out was simply the number of wins. GT doesn't need good wins, it already has more than most bubble teams have, it just needs a quantity of wins (and 1 or 2 on the road would really help as well).

I'm still completely in the belief that 5-2 the rest of the way gets GT in. Otherwise they will have to make a deep run in the ACC Tourney to have a shot.

I'd also add GT needs at least 3 more, possibly 4 more wins to get an NIT bid - once again having only 13 wins overall right now is the issue (having 10 losses doesn't help either - that needs to be 12 or less entering the ACC tourney to have a realistic shot).

 

[AE 87]

I think what gets you changes from year to year depending upon what other bubble teams looks like.

SI had a great article this week on how the ACC, Big10, Big12 could end up with over half of the at large bids due to the weaknesses of the mid-majors and the lack of depth in the Pac12 and SEC.

i think if GT gets to 18 regular season wins they are in, period. GT has an advantage that most teams don't by having 4 wins against teams in the Top 40. GT's weakness as Jerry Palm pointed out was simply the number of wins. GT doesn't need good wins, it already has more than most bubble teams have, it just needs a quantity of wins (and 1 or 2 on the road would really help as well).

I'm still completely in the belief that 5-2 the rest of the way gets GT in. Otherwise they will have to make a deep run in the ACC Tourney to have a shot.

I'd also add GT needs at least 3 more, possibly 4 more wins to get an NIT bid - once again having only 13 wins overall right now is the issue (having 10 losses doesn't help either - that needs to be 12 or less entering the ACC tourney to have a realistic shot).

Nice post, but you realize that number of wins and number of losses aren't independent stats, right?

 

[KeystoneJacket]

Watching the CBS Bracket Preview. The committee did the top 16 seeds and Jerry Palm is on now projecting the rest of the bracket beyond that. He did not have GT in.

 

[CuseJacket]

Sugiura: Experts explain what Georgia Tech has to do to get in NCAA tournament

With a home sweep and one road win over Miami, Notre Dame or Syracuse, Tech’s projected RPI would improve to 58 and give the Jackets a major check mark with a second tough road win.

In the win out at home/lose out on the road scenario, the Jackets would go into the ACC tournament at 17-13 overall (not counting Tuesday’s win over Division II Tusculum, which the selection committee will ignore) and 9-9 in the ACC. Palm and Lunardi disagree on what that would mean for Tech.

 

[AE 87]

I thought this quote was funny:

it’s not unreasonable to think that the Jackets could pick off one of those games, although both the Fighting Irish and Orange will have open dates before playing the Jackets.​

 

[BigDaddyBuzz]

VT knocking off UVA does not help. That being said, we control our own destiny. Win and we're In!

 

[YlJacket]

Why does BT win not help? Moves them to a 9 seed or so and out of a comparison to us for the bubble with a head to head loss

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[lover1971]

As for the Tech getting in the"Big Dance", Coach needs tell his team what the great Bill Belichick told his team, "Do your job".

 

[AE 87]

fewer

 

[Peacone36]

fewer

Absolutely

 

[bke1984]

I think GT could win the NIT and that could provide a lot of momentum going into the 2017-2018 season.

Maybe, but I'd still rather lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament than win the NIT...it is pretty much a consolation tournament.

Don't get me wrong, NIT berths can be nice (see 2015-2016), but NCAA berths do more for the program...even if you lose...

 

[orientalnc]

VT knocking off UVA does not help. That being said, we control our own destiny. Win and we're In!

Let's assume for a moment you are correct that VT winning hurts our chances. Their record is 17-7 vs. our 14-10 record. If they win out at home and get swept on the road, their record will be 20-10 (9-9 in the ACC). But, two of their remaining road games are at BC and at Pitt. I could see them winning both. Given their schedule, it will take a monumental collapse for them to be left out. Plus, their RPI is 37. We are not competing with VT for a slot.

It is more likely we are competing with Wake and Miami for a bid, unless the selection committee awards the ACC 11 slots (which I think is unlikely). Let's look at Wake first. Their RPI is 31 and they have home games against Pitt and Louisville, with road games at Clemson, at Duke and at VT. If they lose three games, their record will be 17-13. Another problem is that UL will be tough in W-S and all of those road games could be losses. In spite of their RPI, Wake could be in trouble if they cannot get a 3rd win before the ACC tournament.

Miami has an RPI of 49 this morning and a 16-8 record. They play us and Clemson at home this week, then have UVA, VT and FSU on the road and Duke at home. If they cannot beat us in Coral Gables Wednesday night, their road to the NCAA tournament looks very difficult.

Now look at us. Our RPI is 76! If we get in it will be in spite of our RPI, so getting wins is paramount for us. I do think we have a decent shot with an 18-12 record, but that means we have to hold service at home and win one of our road games. As I said in another thread, of road games at Miami, ND and Syracuse, Miami may be our best shot. Others think we could win in South Bend. But either way we have our work cut out for us with a very thin roster.