Player Attrition Under CPJ – Part 2

[GTNavyNuke]

Thanks to all who helped me clean up the data some. I’ve gone back and can now do some more detailed statistics.

As a recap for the methodology:
· Used end of year roster posted on GT site - except for current year where I used last weeks.
· Use Scout recruit data to determine who gets four year scholarship
· Compared changes in end of one season roster plus Scout scholarships to the next year's roster to determine which scholarship players were no longer on the roster.

Here’s the summary:

So we see that there were 110 players who have completed or left under CPJ. This does not include this year's players expected to graduate or go to the NFL or whatever . Here are some interesting things, at least to me:

· Already this year we have lost 9 players. That was 2 dismissed, 1 injured, 1 academics and 5 for personal / playing time issues.

· That is the most since 2009 (9 players) and close to 2011 (8 players) but the reasons are different since the 2009 and 2011 years include those who graduated or went to the NFL early (2009 and 2011 had 4 players in these two categories).

· Most of the players lost so far this year have left for personal or playing time reasons. That could be good in that we are getting better players in. Just a thought, but Vad may have seen the writing on the wall. Or it could be as Atomic has hypothesized, that there is a clubhouse problem. 2009, 2010 and this year have seen people leave for playing time at the 4 to 5 person level.

· I didn’t have any players as dismissed in CPJ’s first 3 years (2008-10), but there has been a pickup in the last four years.

· Academics has not been a reported factor – only Custis and Akins were in that category. So we must be qualifying and they must be working hard academically.

· Only 21% of the players completed 5 years. Most RS players left after 4 years or earlier. Seems that only the best players stay around for a fifth year. I don’t know if they were pushed out, but the fact is 21% of all players stayed for the 5 years.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Here's the detailed data:
Code
C4 Completed four years of playing, no redshirt year
C5 Completed five years of playing, redshirt year
N Went to the NFL early
PA Academic rumored
D Discipline - scholarship terminated for violation of team rules
P Personal - wanted to play somewhere else or stop playing, no reason found
PG Graduated with a year of eligibility left to play elsewhere or play no more
I Injured or surmised injured and could no longer continue to play CFB
T Transfer

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Can't wait to see how this compares to other teams in the power 5. Get cracking nuke

 

[AE 87]

Roof conspiracy.

 

[forensicbuzz]

How easy would it be to add a column that had "games played" or "quarters played?"

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

That would be tuff forensic... Best way I can think of is to look at game by game stat sheets... Would give games played at least but would take some time. Quarters played likely impossible.

 

[swampsting]

That would be tuff forensic... Best way I can think of is to look at game by game stat sheets... Would give games played at least but would take some time. Quarters played likely impossible.

Game stat sheets only mention those who participated at any point in the game and it's not broken down by quarters. I haven't seen any postgame stat pack ever do that.

 

[augustabuzz]

How did you categorize the players we lost to Microsoft?

 

[Boomergump]

Well, the news isn't all bad. After all, player attrition is how the mighty Special Ed Conference keeps its rosters loaded. Over sign, then get rid of the guys who don't play much. We don't force kids out, but thankfully, they are weeding themselves out. This will enable us to sign more kids and hopefully get more hits. Everybody has the misses.

I would rather have the opposite, but players, who aren't contributing much RIGHT NOW, leaving is not the worst thing in the world. The reason I would prefer the opposite has nothing to do with success on the gridiron, but rather, wishing the best for the kids. If you don't play much for GT, then it stands to reason you won't be making a living at it after college. Why not get the GT diploma and leverage that the best you can?

 

[forensicbuzz]

I agree the stats are nigh on impossible to get unless you are connected to the program or maybe can get the stats from the program. I know they keep participation by quarter. That's typically how they determine Letter winners, quarters-played.

The only reason I brought it up is because there's a big difference in losing a guy with 1 year of eligibility left who never saw the field than a RS Sophomore with 3 years left and having earned 2-deep behind a senior. Some losses due to attrition hurts more than others. I think this year's attrition at the DT position hurt more than most of the losses in 2010.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

How easy would it be to add a column that had "games played" or "quarters played?"

LMFAO. It would be easy to add the column. It would be hard to get the data. That project is left to the interested observer.

How did you categorize the players we lost to Microsoft?

Third row down in summary, graduate, eligibility left. The six who graduated and didn't play their last year are near the bottom of the third sheet. Rocker is the only one who I remember going to Microsoft

Well, the news isn't all bad. After all, player attrition is how the mighty Special Ed Conference keeps its rosters loaded. Over sign, then get rid of the guys who don't play much. We don't force kids out, but thankfully, they are weeding themselves out. This will enable us to sign more kids and hopefully get more hits. Everybody has the misses.

I would rather have the opposite, but players, who aren't contributing much RIGHT NOW, leaving is not the worst thing in the world. The reason I would prefer the opposite has nothing to do with success on the gridiron, but rather, wishing the best for the kids. If you don't play much for GT, then it stands to reason you won't be making a living at it after college. Why not get the GT diploma and leverage that the best you can?

Boomer, one of the things that surprised me was the number of players who stopped playing at GT when they could have continued and they hadn't graduated. If you take out the graduates, those that went to the NFL, had career ending injuries or were dismissed you only have those for whom playing remained more optional, it was about 25%. And most of those were players who were only 1, 2 or 3 years on the roster. I would think this has to go on more at SEC schools since they have more players to replace on a yearly basis. But as to whether the player decides on his own to leave or is given a push we can never know. We do know that our graduation rates under CPJ are very high, so the kids are getting the most important thing out of GT; their degree. So whether they are somewhat pushed out or not, our players are winning.

 

[Techster]

The only player I can remember that left GT early and made it to the NFL is Quentin Sims. Not sure if his motive for leaving was playing time or because of the offense (or whatever), but he transferred to UT-Martin and put up some really good numbers there. He was then signed by the NE Patriots and made their practice squad for a year.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I agree the stats are nigh on impossible to get unless you are connected to the program or maybe can get the stats from the program. I know they keep participation by quarter. That's typically how they determine Letter winners, quarters-played.

The only reason I brought it up is because there's a big difference in losing a guy with 1 year of eligibility left who never saw the field than a RS Sophomore with 3 years left and having earned 2-deep behind a senior. Some losses due to attrition hurts more than others. I think this year's attrition at the DT position hurt more than most of the losses in 2010.

I agree. The best I can do is say this. Of the players who voluntarily stopped playing at GT (not injured, dismissed or NFL):
2 didn't make it to year one (Custis, Autry)
10 were Fr or RFr
9 were SO or RSo
11 were Jr or RJr

The bottom half of the second players page and the third page have the listing of players. There were some who really hurt to lose, but most weren't seeing much playing time and were only playing on the scout team.

 

[augustabuzz]

GTNN, we lost two to Microsoft, one each on successive years. Thanks for doing this. It does present a picture to study.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Bump unfortunately.

The Dennis Andrews disciplinary release brought this to mind. Who have we lost this year?

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

The churn is actually the sign of well managed and efficient football program. You never know what you have when you recruit players. You make an informed decision and hope they all turn out to be good players and good people. No one hits on 100%, in fact you are doing very good to hit on 50%. That means that as many as half or more of the guys you have in the program are not going to make a significant contribution.

So you are continually looking for other ways to infuse more talent into the program. Transfers are becoming more and more of a factor in finding a way to raise the performance level in your program. You have other avenues, such as walk ons, preferred walk ons and guys switching from other sports like Smelter for example. So I think you will continue to see a smaller number of original recruits actually completing all 4 years of their eligibility (even allowing for those that leave early to go pro).

My feeling is that Georgia Tech is doing a really good job of managing this churn and finding other avenues to procure talent.

Go Jackets!

 

[takethepoints]

What worries me is that what looked like a pretty promising offensive backfield picture at the start of spring practice now looks like a train wreck.

But … that is largely due to injuries, not to releases or transfers. Still, the picture is nowhere near as promising now, imho, then it was when spring practice started.

Now, watch: Skov and Allen will run for over 1500 yards and we'll be ok otherwise. I sure do hope.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

OK, to get back to where I wanted to be for this thread:

I have the following three having left the team this calendar year for other than graduation:
Brigman I (Injury- concussion)
Preddy P (Personal - playing time probably)
Andrews D (Discipline)

Anyone else? If not, this is no where near the blood letting last year.

 

[redmule]

O'Reilly?

 

[33jacket]

to me 76 of 110 is totally normal for all programs. NFL early, graduate and have eligibility but decide to leave or transfer or get a job (we got skov this way), injury, then the normal 55 in the first two categories. This is at every program around the same clip and those are healthy program things everyone deals with. 69% of our players...are simply "part of doing business"

The ones that hurt are dismissals due to punishment. Or fail outs; or the player leaves due to one of those two and it never publicly comes out. That happened alot last year and in general. 31% of our players were some type of casualty...or disgruntled...or just wanted a different system/reason to leave. To me...that seems high...

But then look at the data...
dismissals over 7 years is less than one a year. Totally normal IMO for every school
Academic casualties...we have at 2...its higher...I bet some of those are in that 20 number...but lets just say...that too is less than one a year. Totally normal for any school again...

The big bucket of 20...thats the one that stands out....and that is the one that could be a bit weeding out...a bit the players just wanting to be somewhere else (like vad, cooper taylor, jeff greene etc), and some attitude issues....

Now, that seems high at a school like tech because of who we like to think we recruit. But alabama weeds out and cuts kids at a huge clip. We don't. But we kinda do in our own way too. How??? Paul is very honest...and brutal honesty is and can be offensive and can simply show the kid the light another way. Paul never would pull a ship. Or say leave. But he will say...I don't see you cracking the 2 deep here....blah blah blah, but tech is a great school so play hard we need you on the team and get a great degree. That player has left...some have stayed...To me...that is as much that 20 bucket as anything

really, I don't see anything too alarming in these numbers...is my conclusion.