Perspective on Josh Pastner

[crut]

I've seen a decent amount of talk about Josh Pastner over the past month and how people are already ready for him to go. Let this stat give people a moment to put into perspective how difficult it is to bring a team to prominence in the ACC. It also requires time. Other than Okogie and sort of Lammers, the cupboard was about as possibly empty as it could have been when Pastner started. I find it hard to believe any of the other coaches on this list had a tougher start than he did.

 

[tsrich]

I think my biggest concern is the empty recruiting class this year. He did good things with last year's class and if he'd built on that I'd feel pretty optimistic

 

[Jophish17]

Just as another data point, here are the league records for the teams the two years before said coach took over.

Williams: 6-30 (0.167)
Bennett: 9-23 (0.281)
Hamilton: 8-24 (0.250)
K: 16-10 (0.615)
Pastner: 11-25 (0.306)

Pastner also had the benefit of more in-conference games on the schedule (as did Buzz)

I may be in the minority these days as I like CJP but this stat doesn’t tell me much.

 

[crut]

Just as another data point, here are the league records for the teams the two years before said coach took over.

Williams: 6-30 (0.167)
Bennett: 9-23 (0.281)
Hamilton: 8-24 (0.250)
K: 16-10 (0.615)
Pastner: 11-25 (0.306)

Pastner also had the benefit of more in-conference games on the schedule (as did Buzz)

I may be in the minority these days as I like CJP but this stat doesn’t tell me much.

It was 2 games fewer, so even if we give them the benefit of the doubt and say they win both the extra games (which is unlikely given the records they did achieve) none of them pass Pastner in wins.

The exception here is Coach K who played 4 games less. But the same result applies even if he wins all those games.

 

[sidewalkGTfan]

I think my biggest concern is the empty recruiting class this year. He did good things with last year's class and if he'd built on that I'd feel pretty optimistic

This....I think we all realize and understand that when JO went pro our chances of dancing were gone and we would probably struggle but the swing and miss of a recruiting class is the MUCH bigger issue.

 

[WrongShadeOfGold]

I think my biggest concern is the empty recruiting class this year. He did good things with last year's class and if he'd built on that I'd feel pretty optimistic

This exactly. Took 2 steps forward with his first season and recruiting class but then took a huge step back in recruiting this year.

 

[MWBATL]

Recruiting and player development are always the keys for GT coaches in any sport. Don't like some of what has happened in GT basketball and am concerned about recruiting, otherwise...will wait and see.

 

[tbglover]

This....I think we all realize and understand that when JO went pro our chances of dancing were gone and we would probably struggle but the swing and miss of a recruiting class is the MUCH bigger issue.

The class leaves plenty to be desired actually it outright sucks. I also can't remember a situation where 2 recruits were lost in the day prior to their announcement.

 

[Jophish17]

It was 2 games fewer.

Per season. 4 for the two year period.

Buzz is the only one who certainly performed worse than Josh, but even he split at 2 wins in the first year followed by 10 wins, and he hasn’t looked back since.

 

[crut]

Per season. 4 for the two year period.

Buzz is the only one who certainly performed worse than Josh, but even he split at 2 wins in the first year followed by 10 wins, and he hasn’t looked back since.

Ok fair, but now let's make a more reasonable estimation that these coaches win half of their additional ACC games (instead of all of them), and then still none of them go beyond what Pastner has done in 2 years.

Stating any of them preformed better than Josh in the first two years is basically flat out wrong unless you are assuming these coaches would have won all or almost all the extra ACC games.

 

[Gold1]

If we get Jordan Usher that would be big for the program

 

[Peacone36]

Gimme Usher Baugh and Jankovic. That would be an amazing recovery IMHO. Though I’m not sure Baugh is likely at this point.

The good news is we get (presumably) our best 6 back next season with Alvarado, Banks, Devoe, Moore Cole and Haywood.

 

[lv20gt]

Just as another data point, here are the league records for the teams the two years before said coach took over.

Williams: 6-30 (0.167)
Bennett: 9-23 (0.281)
Hamilton: 8-24 (0.250)
K: 16-10 (0.615)
Pastner: 11-25 (0.306)

Pastner also had the benefit of more in-conference games on the schedule (as did Buzz)

I may be in the minority these days as I like CJP but this stat doesn’t tell me much.

We lost 68% of our minutes, 78% of our scoring, 68% of our rebounding, and 72% of our assists with nobody in sight that was going to replace it. We were in every bit as bad a place as any of those other teams were when their respective coaches took over and it's why gregory was fired. He was bringing in 2 man classes for 4 years where the only significant land was Tadric Jackson.

As far as the extra games go, Pastner was 14-22 ( .39)
Williams was 12-24 (.33)
Bennett was 12-20 (.38)
Hamilton was 10-22 (.31)
Coach K was 10-18 (.36).

btw Duke in year 3 under K went 3-11 in conference as a historical note.

Even by win% Pastner's is still the highest.

The stat tells you what should already be obvious. Pastner did a hell of a job in year 1, which is why he got the ACC CoY award, and did a solid job in conference last year all things considering. Even this year he had us in a good position except Okogie went pro. If Okogi doesn't make that decision we are, imo, 13-1 right now sitting pretty. But we weren't in a position to be able to absorb those kind of losses without an impact because Okogie was the one returning significant upperclassman.

As far as the recruiting class thing goes, this current recruiting cycle is months from being done. There is no reason to act like it is finished and decided.

 

[Jophish17]

Stating any of them preformed better than Josh in the first two years is basically flat out wrong

I think you’ll look back to see I don’t think this stat means much, and that I support CJP regardless.

All of those coaches, with the exception of K (who took over a Duke team that made an elite 8 appearance the previous season) took over programs that were struggling. All (again, except K) improve their teams records in the first two years. Only Williams - who is the one coach who definitely didn’t win as many games in their first two seasons as CJP - made the tourney. There isn’t a significant difference between them IMO... and in that company, it’s not a bad thing.

 

[Jophish17]

We lost 68% of our minutes, 78% of our scoring, 68% of our rebounding, and 72% of our assists with nobody in sight that was going to replace it. We were in every bit as bad a place as any of those other teams were when their respective coaches took over and it's why gregory was fired.

I don’t disagree that we were in a bad place

Even by win% Pastner's is still the highest.

And statistically insignificant to K or Bennett, and not much better than Williams or Hamilton. That’s all I’m saying.

Pastner did a hell of a job in year 1, which is why he got the ACC CoY award, and did a solid job in conference last year all things considering.

I agree.

 

[dtm1997]

Gimme Usher Baugh and Jankovic. That would be an amazing recovery IMHO. Though I’m not sure Baugh is likely at this point.

The good news is we get (presumably) our best 6 back next season with Alvarado, Banks, Devoe, Moore Cole and Haywood.

Give me Usher. Take Baugh if he wants to come. Roll the schollies to 2020 otherwise.

 

[Gold1]

What's big as well is that Usher would be eligible for ACC play next year

 

[jbix80]

What's big as well is that Usher would be eligible for ACC play next year

I just asked about that in the grad transfer section. I thought he would be out this spring and next fall, which makes him eligible for next spring.

 

[dtm1997]

I just asked about that in the grad transfer section. I thought he would be out this spring and next fall, which makes him eligible for next spring.

Should be how it goes unless he gets a waiver for fall semester.

 

[Texwood]

The early signing period was worse than a swing and a miss. I would take rolling all the scholarships over wasting one on a kid who has no chance of ever being an ACC caliber player. And yes, I know Cremins did that routinely but he was recruiting elite level talent and promising minutes was a big part of his pitch. Our program is in no position to be wasting 'ships - effectively putting us on self-inflicted probation.