Overachievers

[Jacketman1]

It was an interesting study. Going back to just 2008 does help some teams, notably Clemson, and hurts others like probably California. My own take is spread over a longer time period and is strictly stream of consciousness with no attempt at trying to justify my impressions with data:

Tech at #9 Seems about right. I think of Tech as a bit of an overachiever compared to the actual talent we manage to get.

Auburn at #11 Disagree a bit on this. I know Auburn operates under a bit of a handicap sharing the stage with mighty Bama in the Yellowhammer State but many teams would kill to get the caliber of players they routinely get. In my opinion, something of a slight underachieving program

Virginia Tech at #12 This one is controversial. Virginia Tech has had very good talent in years past but not consistently and at the level of the true elite factories. I really regard them as slight over achievers but maybe not deserving of their lofty ranking

Clemson at #20 To be sure, only going back to 2008 definitely helps the Tigers but historically they have been a bit of an underachieving program and not the overachieving program suggested by this ranking. They have always been able to get superior talent going back to the 1980s and really don't have a whole lot to show for it. Nevertheless, a very good program on the upswing for sure.

FSU at #21 They cannot be serious. FSU has more talent year in and year out than they know what to do with. I know it is sometimes lopsided with skill position players but when was the last time Tech had a player who was like that dude that played quarterback a few years ago the one they called the "X Man" Xavier something or another. That guy was a Mr. Football AND a Mr. Basketball in the state of Florida. They have had Christ alone knows how many five stars that were busts over the years. I know they have had their problems but a lack of talent isn't one of them. I mean, gee whiz, they ought to be a poster child for an underachieving program relative to their recruiting.

UGA at #52 If anything, it probably should be lower. They too benefit from it only going back to 2008. Total dominance of a fertile recruiting area, all the money needed to build a program, buy coaches, players too for that matter, the very definition of a football factory and what do they have to show for it? One national championship and a handful of conference championships and a boatload of Fulmer Cup awards. Definitely an underachieving program. In my mind, about as bad or worse than FSU.

Florida at #55 Could be worse. Back in the day, the Gators routinely mismanaged abundant talent. One year they had 9 players drafted to the NFL and won, I think, two or three games. Where else, would a team achieve the heights of being ranked number one in the nation for the very first time and a week later lose to a pretty decent but nothing special Georgia team. To be sure, the Gators have won more national championships since 1990 than Georgia has won conference championships (or at least it seems that way) and they have played in the SEC championship game more times than I care to remember but this is a team that can waste talent with the best of them.

UNC at #61 The Tarheels manage to do less with more talent than just about anyone. They have not sniffed a conference championship in a generation and to the best of my knowledge have never played in the ACC championship game. Plenty of talent compared to most of their competition. Tech, UVA, Wake, Duke, NC State, all manage to do as well or better with markedly less talent. Kind of pitiful in a way but I don't feel sorry for them. Any thing bad happen to those baby blue snobs. Well, they probably got it coming.

UNC played in the ACC championship game in 2015

 

[jgtengineer]

Where is this info coming from?

It was the word in 2008 when johnson was hired.

 

[kg01]

This further confirms that despite being a crotchety old butt hole, Cutcliffe can really really coach.

Hey c'mere, ilove. Lemme show you somethin' by the door. Yeah get .. keep goin' ... yeah, riiight over there ... there ya go.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

This further confirms that despite being a crotchety old butt hole, Cutcliffe can really really coach.

Or he knows how to schedule week arse schedules.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Hey c'mere, ilove. Lemme show you somethin' by the door. Yeah get .. keep goin' ... yeah, riiight over there ... there ya go.

Why are you pushing @Supersizethatorder-mutt out the door?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Or he knows how to schedule week arse schedules.

Right – we could win nine games a year every single year if we played their schedule.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

This further confirms that despite being a crotchety old butt hole, Cutcliffe can really really coach.

Their strength of schedule is typically around #50 out of 65 in FBS.

This year its weak again, but their home-at-homes rotate to the road OOC. So they could have another 4-8 type of year. @Baylor, @Northwestern, @Georgia Tech, @Miami, @Clemson. They also play Virginia Tech and Wake which they'll probably lose. They will probably also struggle with @Pittsburgh.

Duke is smart though and like Kentucky, they take their recruits to basketball games instead of football games.

 

[bobongo]

Dont think so, dude. The article is about Under and Over achieving compared to how many NFL players they have.

Duke is number 1 not because they have the most NFL players. Duke is number one because they have won a lot without NFL players.

Cutcliffe is one hell of a coach. Hasn't he beaten us four times in a row, now?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Cutcliffe is one hell of a coach. Hasn't he beaten us four times in a row, now?

No, we beat them in 2016.

No to Cutcliffe being one hell of a coach too. I mean he's a good coach, but they play a terribly easy schedule. Duke has had only 1 single season above 0.500 in the ACC in the last 10 years. Georgia Tech is the polar opposite - we've only had 1 single season below 0.500 in the ACC...and our cross conference rival is freaking Clemson. Cutcliffe has had 3 seasons where he's gone 1-7 in the ACC. And their recruiting is typically very similar to ours IIRC.

 

[bobongo]

Their strength of schedule is typically around #50 out of 65 in FBS.

This year its weak again, but their home-at-homes rotate to the road OOC. So they could have another 4-8 type of year. @Baylor, @Northwestern, @Georgia Tech, @Miami, @Clemson. They also play Virginia Tech and Wake which they'll probably lose. They will probably also struggle with @Pittsburgh.

Duke is smart though and like Kentucky, they take their recruits to basketball games instead of football games.

Not all that bad, really. Two power 5 conference teams OOC on their schedule this year. With Cutcliffe's success against us I don't see how we should be complaining about him being #1 on the list. I don't think there is any doubt he's gone into every one of his wins against the Jackets with inferior talent.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Sideways what has hurt FSU in recent years is their O line - and their O line recruiting, which may be part and parcel of it - has been pathetic. They have had top rated skill guys and a ton of very highly rated defenders. But their O line has been their Achilles heel in recruiting and on the field. I looked this up a few months ago, just how deficient their O line recruiting had been (and they're trying to get the same oranges as everyone else while we're going for apples, the guys who fit our system). Can't remember what I did with my research but I recall that their O line recruiting had not been nearly as star studded as the recruiting for their other positions.
Agree about UNC. Though the study in question covers 2008 on, I saw the 99 team, with Julius Peppers and about 5-6 other guys who played in the NFL, and they got boatraced at home by Furman that year. (that was a good Furman team. ask PJ)
I'll say Auburn has underachieved too. They have recruited well, especially when they got Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams. And they recruit Georgia and Florida particularly well, and have over time..

That about covers it but it could be they (FSU) have been hit with injuries, defections just as we have been lately. I do seem to recall an article somewhere that had various unnamed coaches griping about how difficult it is to recruit offensive linemen while hinting that the ones with talent were not well coached or motivated. Complaining all the way around I guess.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Hey c'mere, ilove. Lemme show you somethin' by the door. Yeah get .. keep goin' ... yeah, riiight over there ... there ya go.

Now that is just rude and just about the way my 30 something daughter feels about me (sometimes).

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I don't think there is any doubt he's gone into every one of his wins against the Jackets with inferior talent.

There's plenty of doubt. According to a five year avg recruiting ranking, we recruit on virtually the exact same level. In fact, they recruit a tad better at #47 to our #49.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...llege-football-recruiting-rankings-2018-class

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

UNC played in the ACC championship game in 2015

That's right UNC did. Well, that's a feather in their cap for sure. Still no championships but that can be said about a lot of ACC teams. It looks as though there may be an elite level forming of Clemson, Miami, and FSU with Virginia Tech just a notch below and everybody else scrambling for scraps from their table. May have to crash that party one of these days.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Not all that bad, really. Two power 5 conference teams OOC on their schedule this year. With Cutcliffe's success against us I don't see how we should be complaining about him being #1 on the list. I don't think there is any doubt he's gone into every one of his wins against the Jackets with inferior talent.

I won't put words into other people's mouths...but I don't disagree with them being #1 on that list. I mean, its just how the math falls out. I just disagree with Cutcliffe being viewed as a great coach because I think the data shows otherwise. In that formula they benefit from having only 4 guys drafted into the NFL in the last decade. It doesn't take much in the numerator to make a big number. Their OOC this year is NC Central and Army. Their 2 P5 teams are Baylor (who went 1-11 last year) and Northwestern...both on the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost both of those. And they play @Clemson this year, which they might lose by 50 points. They last time they played Duke lost by 40 points and it was a home game.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

That's right UNC did. Well, that's a feather in their cap for sure. Still no championships but that can be said about a lot of ACC teams. It looks as though there may be an elite level forming of Clemson, Miami, and FSU with Virginia Tech just a notch below and everybody else scrambling for scraps from their table. May have to crash that party one of these days.

It wasn't too long ago when the Coastal crown went through one of the two Techs every year.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

There's plenty of doubt. According to a five year avg recruiting ranking, we recruit almost on the exact same level. In fact, they recruit a tad better at #47 to our #49.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...llege-football-recruiting-rankings-2018-class

Well, recruiting is part of coaching isn't it? To be honest, I thought our recruiting ranking would have been a tad lower in the 50s. I suppose that ranking would include the 2013 recruiting class that, if memory serves (I know it often doesn't but bear with me here) was the worst class in quite some time. Seems like that class was in the 80s or so. We have been doing much better lately.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That's right UNC did. Well, that's a feather in their cap for sure. Still no championships but that can be said about a lot of ACC teams. It looks as though there may be an elite level forming of Clemson, Miami, and FSU with Virginia Tech just a notch below and everybody else scrambling for scraps from their table. May have to crash that party one of these days.

Miami has elite level talent for sure. But Richt is winning just like he did at Georgie - tons of high level talent, but discipline issues all over the place. Miami won 4 games last year by the skin of their teeth. It took UNCheat having 3 turnovers in the last 10 minutes to secure that one LOL and UNCheat was BAD. And Pittsburgh was BAD and beat them. I'm not sure they have turned the corner yet on performance.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Well, recruiting is part of coaching isn't it? To be honest, I thought our recruiting ranking would have been a tad lower in the 50s. I suppose that ranking would include the 2013 recruiting class that, if memory serves (I know it often doesn't but bear with me here) was the worst class in quite some time. Seems like that class was in the 80s or so. We have been doing much better lately.

CPJ has had something like 8 recruiting classes under #50.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Well, recruiting is part of coaching isn't it? To be honest, I thought our recruiting ranking would have been a tad lower in the 50s. I suppose that ranking would include the 2013 recruiting class that, if memory serves (I know it often doesn't but bear with me here) was the worst class in quite some time. Seems like that class was in the 80s or so. We have been doing much better lately.

I was replying to your "I don't think there is any doubt he's gone into every one of his wins against the Jackets with inferior talent."

That statement is wide open for debate based on the info I provided.