On too... Syracuse at GT, Saturday

[awbuzz]

Game at Noon on ESPNU

 

[awbuzz]

Wonder if Jorgenson will be in the rotation?

Will be in the air during game time, so ya'll pull hard so we can get another win!

 

[CuseJacket]

Time for me to share more thoughts than most want to hear. I'll preface this by saying there's probably no one in the entire universe who has watched the total number of 'Cuse and GT basketball games as I have this year. Think I've missed 3 total.

So, here's the thing. I'm backing away from my massive troll of everyone on the board (or maybe that's just what @AE 87 has suggested) where I've trumpeted GT as the better team and great match-up. Syracuse will and should be favored. I'm thinking the line opens at 'Cuse -7 and I expect them to win.

Reality is GT is a great match-up. They're just no longer the better team, on average. Earlier in the season (with Boeheim) Syracuse was wasting more possessions on both ends of the court than GT. They showed an over-reliance on 3-point shooting that pretty much dictated their success, let alone the sieve they had in the middle of the zone.

A lot has changed, including a slightly regressed opinion of GT. I'm not going to focus on this other than how it affects this specific game. I'm going to break the rest of my thoughts up into different posts for ease of reading.

 

[CuseJacket]

Syracuse scouting report

• 6 players will play 95% of the minutes, barring foul trouble. Note the qualifier... this is GT's path to success.
• Starters
  • Michael Gbinije - 6'5" PG... best player on the squad. One of the better 3-point shooters in the league, a slasher/finished with no one on GT who can all-out stop him. Leads the ACC in steals.
  • Trevor Cooney - 6'4" SG... nearly a mirror image of Adam Smith with greater size/strength. Probably not as good of a shooter as Smith, much streakier, however Cooney's size/strength allows him to create and elevate better than Smith. 2nd in the ACC in steals.
  • Malachi Richardson - 6'5" SG... forced to play SF. This freshman was a 4*/5* depending on where you look. Good enough to potentially leave early next year. He can fill it up from deep and slash to the basket. Probably Gbinije-light right now. Sometimes a headcase defensively but knows where he's going now far better than earlier in the season.
  • Tyler Roberson - 6'8" PF... probably will be the best rebounder on the court but really the only big that can rebound well for Syracuse. Can't shoot and shouldn't shoot unless in end of clock situations.
  • Dajuan Coleman - 6'9" C... injury-prone senior center who came in with hype as a 5* McD's guy. From my high school, so that makes him awesome. Not a threat offensively or defensively. The weakest link of the starting 5.
• Bench
  • Tyler Lydon - 6'8" PF... this freshman might have the best stroke of anyone on the team. Might also be the the smartest player. Many want him to be more selfish. #6 in the ACC in blocks due to being the backup center, despite his lack of size.

Tomorrow I'll break down what I think should vs. what will happen on both ends of the court. I'll do this for both teams. The theme you'll notice is that I expect Syracuse to execute 90% of what they should do. GT, I'm inclined to guess 50% based on what we've seen in the last month of ACC play.

For what it's worth I'm really looking forward to covering the game Saturday from the Carrier Dome. While many have thrown in the towel, I think GT still has a 5-10% chance of making a meaningful run this year. I think the primary issue is the one in their heads, both on the floor and on the bench. If they are to somehow overcome that factor, I think it has to happen Saturday or else I'll mail in that last 5-10%. It's a game that requires mental strength like defending the GT spread option, and it's a winnable game against an NCAA bubble team that consequently provides a great measuring stick.

 

[awbuzz]

Syracuse just beat down ND 81 to 66.
Their 4th win over Top 25 teams.

Going to be tough on Saturday.

 

[BleedingGold]

No Demetrius Jackson=Notre Dame loss

 

[Peacone36]

Roberson and Lydon are such wild cards. When they play well Syracuse can literally beat anyone in the country.

Orange by 11

 

[CuseJacket]

Roberson and Lydon are such wild cards. When they play well Syracuse can literally beat anyone in the country.

Orange by 11

This is pretty fair. The difference lately is Roberson is not committing worthless fouls. He's still mostly a non-factor on offense outside of cleaning up the glass, which he does very well.

Lydon is a match-up nightmare offensively. Some think he could leave after this year. Seems like a stretch to me... he'd benefit from another 1-2 by adding strength. Said the same for Jemami Grant though, so who knows...

 

[orientalnc]

The ND game plan breaks down without Jackson. They were a different team last night. Still, Saturday will be tough. I wonder what a coach like Boeheim could do with the current GT lineup?

 

[CuseJacket]

GT on Offense

• It's no secret Syracuse will run the 2-3. They will run it the entire game and attempt to both physically and mentally enforce their will.
• Gbinije and Cooney are 1 and 2 in the ACC in steals. They're not ripping the ball from ball handlers. Instead they'll use their length and weak passes on the perimeter and into the high post will get deflected.
• The center of the zone is a sieve this year. As in, the worst I think it's been for Syracuse in at least 25 years. This is the key to the game regardless of what happens on the other end of the floor. In recent weeks 'Cuse has covered up the deficiency in a few different ways depending on opponent:
  • Finesse teams w/ no interior or key injuries on the interior - BC, Duke - just did not have the horses
  • Teams with a quick PF who could drive or dish - ND - saw ball pressure from the center once the ball hit the high post; the guards moved to a man look on the perimeter kick-outs
  • Teams without perimeter shooters have seen the guards at the top sag more than they ever have
  • Teams with poor game coaches - UNC - played with their thumb in their butts but overcame it due to superior talent. This comment is just a cheap shot aimed at Roy and nothing more.
• If you look at the first three bullets, you could argue that GT has all three components to be successful this year, though we're most deficient at #2. This is what GT should do.
  • On the perimeter, the primary rotation should be Smith, MGH, and Q
    • Yes, Q, even as hard as I and others have been on him. And I'm suggesting this knowing he has to play defense on someone. I'll explain that later. But against the zone Q should end up with a couple more wide open, step-in catch and pops.
    • Heath would be my primary back-up guard and should get more minutes than Tadric. There's no great role for Tadric this game.
    • And being really real.... if there was ever a game that was not Jorg's game, it's Saturday, based on what's required on both ends of the court.
  • On the interior, at the elbow/free throw line should be Jacobs/Mitchell. The low post/short corner should be White/Lammers.
    • If we see a pairing significantly different than this, it means we're not paying attention or don't care. And this game, it has nothing to do with offense/defense complements as it does in other games. It has everything to do with strengths on O, and defensively there are few match-up problems for any of them.
    • Jacobs/Mitchell make sense at the high post because they're the scorers. They can put the ball on the ground and should attack Coleman/Lydon relentlessly. This is the key to the game... get those two in foul trouble or make them passive. This probably easier done than said... seriously, I don't think I can describe how important and effective this has been for teams that made the zone look like chopped liver this year.
    • White/Lammers at the short corner are the at the basket finishers. They should truly get 1-2 alley-oop dunks in a half court set. If MGH, Smith, Heath, Jacobs, and Mitchell can keep their heads up in the lane they'll have a field day. Their athleticism and length are greater than Jacobs/Mitchell which should enable them to get rebounds and tip-ins. Remember, it's harder to rebound defensively from a zone - it's one of the acknowledged trade-offs - and it's one of GT's strengths.
    • Summary: Feed the high post, make quick decisions to put the ball on the ground or one-dribble floaters all day. Rinse and repeat. In fairnesss it's the recipe every year, however this year given Syracuse's limitations on the interior (talent + length + depth) there is simply no excuse to not get it done.
  • Syracuse's adjustments for GT:
    • 'Cuse will hyper-extend the zone on Smith and potentially MGH/Q so that they cannot get catch and pops facing the basket. The only way our guys will get open looks is kickouts from the post or offensive rebounds.
    • 'Cuse will sag/bait all of our other guards to shoot, and they'll continue doing it even if they hit one or two. We need the threat of shooters out there whether they're getting looks or not. It'll open up the high post for Jacobs/Mitchell and crew to do work.
    • The wild card is whether Boeheim decides to pressure the high post or beg Jacobs/Mitchell to shoot. My guess is they'll see how aggressive/tentative our guys are being. If they look indecisive, they'll get token pressure with the hope they'll take those 12-14 footers. If our guys aggressively put the ball on the ground or prove an (unexpected) ability to create for others, that'll draw the center out to keep our guys from getting a head of steam.
  • What will happen?
    • Let's start with horrible line-ups and wasted minutes. No need to expand on this. Dead horse.
    • Mitchell/Jacobs will be indecisive in the high post. If they catch, hold the ball to think/examine options, it'll be a long day. I don't think Mitchell is a great decision-maker as has been said many times, so I'm inclined to believe that will result in turnovers trying to get cute on passes and some elbow jumpers rather than attacking the basket.
    • I could see maybe flashing Q or MGH to the high post on occasion, however to do that means we're sacraficing something on the perimeter for which we can't backfill.
    • We should win the battle of the boards handily, barring fluky long rebounds. This will open up putbacks and kickouts to guards who will be more open than usual in these unsettled situations. Whether we make those shots or not, I don't know. It'll be a factor, but not a bigger factor than our bigs' ability to maneuver and dominate in the paint.

 

[CuseJacket]

The ND game plan breaks down without Jackson. They were a different team last night. Still, Saturday will be tough. I wonder what a coach like Boeheim could do with the current GT lineup?

Syracuse has 3, maybe 4, coaches who would have a better record imo. Boeheim is just one of them.

 

[CuseJacket]

Syracuse just beat down ND 81 to 66.
Their 4th win over Top 25 teams.

Going to be tough on Saturday.

Take the top 25 wins with a grain of salt. Duke and ND have proven they are not top 25 teams with their injuries and will be out of the polls next week. Uconn is outside the top 30 now with losses to Temple and Tulsa. Texas A&M is a mystery... that team simply looked unprepared and had played Michigan the day prior.

 

[Peacone36]

To expand further, I think you are going to see a heavy dose of White from us on saturday. He is out only big that may be able to hang with Lydon when he starts to wander out to the perimeter. I look for Lammers mins to decrease in this game for reasons outside his control. I could see him being on the floor when Coleman is but that will probably be Chucks responsibility as well.

But then again I dont pretend to know what the subbing pattern will be on game day.

 

[Peacone36]

Take the top 25 wins with a grain of salt. Duke and ND have proven they are not top 25 teams with their injuries and will be out of the polls next week. Uconn is outside the top 30 now with losses to Temple and Tulsa. Texas A&M is a mystery... that team simply looked unprepared and had played Michigan the day prior.

UConn is solid. I think they will be in the tournament in the end.

How about the impact these transfers from small schools having in big conferences this year?

Shonn Miller at UConn by way of Cornell
Lee and Lewis from Drexel and Cleveland State
Sterling Brown at SMU from TT

 

[CuseJacket]

To expand further, I think you are going to see a heavy dose of White from us on saturday. He is out only big that may be able to hang with Lydon when he starts to wander out to the perimeter. I look for Lammers mins to decrease in this game for reasons outside his control. I could see him being on the floor when Coleman is but that will probably be Chucks responsibility as well.

But then again I dont pretend to know what the subbing pattern will be on game day.

I agree. White is the ideal short corner/clean-up/lob guy against the zone.

Lydon hasn't proven consistent in putting the ball on the floor yet. In theory it should be a mismatch on that end, but I don't see it being a significant barrier to Lammers' minutes. We won't lose because of it, in other words.

 

[GT_B]

I haven't seen Syracuse play much this year, but looking at their games they seem to be giving up more points than usual. I think if Smith has a great day shooting it will open up that zone and we will start scoring points in the paint. Feel like another close one, but Cuse wins at home 68-64.

 

[bke1984]

Let's be honest. I go in to every game hoping and praying for a W, but I do not ever expect a win out of us right now. A win here puts us back on track at 3-5, but I just have a feeling we are going to be let down.

I think the cap on conference wins right now is 8, and this is one of the ones I included. 8-10 in conference would put us at 19 wins...I don't think we get into the tourney with less than 20, so at 8-10 we'd have to probably win a game in the ACC tournament. If we lose here I think our NCAA chances are pretty much gone.

 

[Connell62]

@CuseJacket , nice write up, but did you happen to flip-flop one line:

On the interior, at the elbow/free throw line should be Jacobs/Mitchell. The low post/short corner should be White/Lammers.

Just my two cents here:

1. Don't want any part of Chuck trying to handle the ball (dribbling or feeding the post)
2. Jacobs is a beast with his back-to-the-basket, not so much away from it.
3. Lammers shown himself to be a good passer and best perimeter shooter of the 4 (IMO).
4. White probably best at being able to handle the ball of the bigs.

One final thought, does BG try and go small a bit in this game and place Q at the elbow or middle of the zone?

 

[CuseJacket]

GT on Defense (This isn't as interesting given what we already know about GT. I'll send you all e-tissues.)

• What's the scariest opposing offense for GT fans this year? How about Syracuse's guard-oriented attack? To a large extent it's true. Thankfully the weaknesses from Syracuse's bigs will partially offset the Orange advantage.
  • GT is going to have to pick its poison on the perimeter. Gbinije, Cooney, and Richardson can probably drive by whomever we assign, save for maybe MGH.
    • We should put our best on their best i.e., MGH on Gbinije. Need size and quickness to contain Silent G.
    • We should put Q on Cooney. I know, if Smith is so much like Cooney and Cooney is the least capable driver of the three, why not assign Smith? Reason is Cooney has developed a fairly consistent ability to pull up on a dime and elevate. Q's length may bother him, as long as he's near him. Cooney won't use his strength advantage to bull over anyone. And last but not least Q should shadow Cooney all over the half court i.e., no help side. GT and everyone in the NCAA learned this by the second half of the year when GT beat Syracuse in the Dome.
    • That leaves Smith on Richardson. This is less than ideal given the size difference and Richardson's handle. That said, Richardson often gets complacent and settles for jumpers. It's been less of an issue lately as an Orange fan, so I think GT gets exposed here. Regardless, we don't have 3 perimeter guys to take all 3, so it's a matter of putting our remaining defender here.
    • For the 3-5 minutes that Franklin Howard (backup PG) plays, we can hide our weakest link.
  • Interior - advantage GT
    • There's really no threat here. Neither Roberson nor Coleman will be asked to score more than 2-3 times a game max. They may get wide open pick and roll or transition situations, but that's not what matters in assignments.
    • We need someone tough to body Roberson on rebounds. That's where he makes hay. Mitchell, White, or Lammers can handle this.
    • Coleman may show a flash or two of being a threat. Long-term it's a non-issue just like Roberson. Just body him up if he has his back to the basket.
    • If we can bait either of these guys into shooting beyond 10 feet, consider it a successful possession. The problem is there's a coach on the bench that tells them not to do that (zing), minus end of clock situations and rare moments where maybe they've converted a couple easy buckets in a row. It may actually be beneficial for GT if Roberson makes one though, because he'll then have just enough leash to miss a couple more.
    • Lydon is the X-factor for the bigs. Best shooter on the team possibly at 6'8" and only a freshman. White is the best match-up here as Peacone said.
  • What will happen?
    • Syracuse will spread the floor and relentlessly do one of two things.
      • Iso dribble-drive for shots around the rim or kick-outs to their perimeter
      • Set up pick-and-rolls at the top of the key
      • Seriously, it's not going to get any fancier than that with any super-creative sets. They probably recognized their advantage here within 10 min of film study and are like CPJ... keep doing it until the opponent proves they can stop it.
    • Syracuse has hit one of their hot streaks from 3 at a really bad time for GT (duh). Whether that translates to tomorrow, who knows, so it could look real ugly for either team.
    • Syracuse will abuse GT in transition if GT sends too many guys to the offensive glass. If Syracuse is getting out in transition, that means GT isn't doing well on offense (duh) and it's probably game over since they're typically one of the best at this phase.
    • GT should play defense with their heels on the 3-point line. We simply cannot think being near the arc will deter the long ball. It is not a bad shot for Syracuse when any of Cooney, Gbinije, Richardson, or Lydon attempt NBA threes. It's in their range and expected.
    • The prior strategy extends our team D... our bigs have to play help side in all iso situations and keep the rim safe. Unfortunately at least two of our bigs are not consistently aware/quick enough on the help, and I think this becomes a problem with fouls on the drive from both our guards and bigs.
    • GT should play off Roberson and Coleman if they have the ball outside the paint. I expect some of our bigs to not recognize their weaknesses consistently and consequently open up lanes for them to get a few bunnies.
    • GT should be able to control the defensive glass, minus fluky long rebounds that sometimes happen when a team is chucking from deep. I expect us to keep our advantage here.

 

[CuseJacket]

@CuseJacket , nice write up, but did you happen to flip-flop one line:

On the interior, at the elbow/free throw line should be Jacobs/Mitchell. The low post/short corner should be White/Lammers.

Just my two cents here:

1. Don't want any part of Chuck trying to handle the ball (dribbling or feeding the post)
2. Jacobs is a beast with his back-to-the-basket, not so much away from it.
3. Lammers shown himself to be a good passer and best perimeter shooter of the 4 (IMO).
4. White probably best at being able to handle the ball of the bigs.

One final thought, does BG try and go small a bit in this game and place Q at the elbow or middle of the zone?

All good points and the cost/benefit of each crossed my mind. I did mean what I said due to the following:

• First and foremost, I want the guy at the elbow to turn and attack - both the basket and whoever is at C. This has to be the instruction for the strategy to work.
• Agree with the concern with Mitchell. If you've seen my in-game and post-game posts, I'm about as low on his decision-making and ability relative to our other bigs as anyone. The benefit with him at the elbow is the bull in a china shop strategy is exactly what I want. It's the best, most efficient way to gut Syracuse's bigs and/or get them in foul trouble.
• Same goes for Jacobs. Turn and attack. He'll be able to get to his left hand too given the space I expect him to have to work. Both will effectively just start a little further to the basket and create shots closer to the rim themselves.
• With Lammers, I guarantee Syracuse sees him as a non-threat. Lammers/anyone who is a passer only will get the "please shoot it treatment". I have no confidence in any of our bigs to hit that shot consistently, minus a streaky Jacobs/Mitchell. But as I said, I don't want us to settle for jumpers there. If we do, we lose.
• White is compelling because he may be able to attack but I like him too much with the lob/clean-up/finish. The lob will be there, and if it's not it's because of the threat of White behind the zone. It will open up the elbow feed.
• I mentioned flashing Q or MGH to the elbow... I just think the tradeoffs are too significant to make that the primary plan of attack. Worth probing that once or twice to see if it works.

If we're being honest though, there's no NCAA-level strategy where one big plays only high post and one at low post. That's middle school level gameplanning against the 2-3. I'm offering where I want our guys to be the majority of the time.