Techwood Relict
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,505
You had me at GT....
North Carolina Hires New DC - Geoff Collins
- Thread starter Techster
- Start date
ThatGuy
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,024
- Location
- Evergreen, CO
I believe this to be true based on what I've heard for years. I was bored, so I decided to look into it.
All of the below figures below are based on DFEI (defensive efficiency), as it provides a better representation of defense than "total yards." Figures taken from this site.
I'm not going back to his time at Western Carolina 20+ years ago. We'll start at Florida International.
He was DC at Florida International in 2010. He took an arguably bad defense (DFEI ranked 103rd) and improved them 34 points to 69th in that one year. (For reference, Georgia Tech was ranked 76 in DFEI in 2023). Basically, took them from bad to the best in the Sun Belt. A respectable move, but against lesser-than-P5 competition...and without much margin of error (there were 4 other Sun Belt teams within 10 ranking points of FIU's ranking).
Florida International DFEI Rankings
2009 (year before, Phil Galiano) - 103rd
2010 - 69th
(Hired by Mississippi State in January 2011)
From there he went to be named Co-DC at Mississippi State, where he followed Manny Diaz (who had been hired away by Mack Brown in Texas). Began as Co-DC with Chris Wilson before assuming the head job. Kept it roughly the same ranking during his tenure with a couple of dips.
Mississippi State DFEI Rankings
2010 (year before, Manny Diaz) - 14th
2011 (Co-defensive coordinator) - 20th
2012 - 37th
2013 - 16th
2014 - 15th
(Hired by Florida in December 2015, before the Orange Bowl)
From Mississippi State, in 2015 he went to Florida, where he took over after Will Muschamp left and Jim McElwain came on. He took over the DC role from DJ Durkin, who had fielded fairly awesome defenses under Muschamp (who was also a defensive-minded coach, who got it done but simply didn't win enough games...despite having a Top 5-ranked defense all but 1 year he was the HC.)
Florida DFEI Rankings
2014 (year before, DJ Durkin) - 3rd
2015 (1st year) - 15th
2016 - 8th
(Hired by Temple as HC on December 14, 2016)
So it could be argued that in 2016, he moved them up. This is still using only 1 year of his own recruits, so you could attribute it to him, or to DJ Durkin's recruits. Still, credit where credit is due (although we saw with Charlie Thomas and Keion White what a difference a few good players can make in a bad scheme).
He moved to Temple as HC in 2017, where the team's offense and defense slipped from where they were under Matt Rhule:
Temple DFEI Rankings
2016 (year before, Matt Rhule) - 38th
2017 - 38th
2018 - 48th
(Hired by Georgia Tech in December, 2018)
Of course, the job of a HC is a lot different than that of a position coach, so it's questionable how much we should grade him on this and his next stop. Including them for the sake of posterity, but take with a grain of salt.
As HC at Georgia Tech, his DFEIs were dreadful:
Georgia Tech DFEI Rankings
2018 (year before) - 103rd
2019 - 101st
2020 - 92nd
2021 - 112th
2022 - 41st (not really counting this, as things rapidly improved after he left).
So, all of that is to say - I think the characterization that he "rode the coattails" of some previously successful DCs is somewhat accurate, somewhat false.
If we're talking entire career, that's false. He did improve Florida International's defensive efficiency in the 1 year he was there, before leaving for Mississippi State.
However, if we're talking P5 jobs, I think it's pretty clear to say that he took over roles that some previously-successful DCs had been hired away from, and was able to in some cases maintain their level of efficiency, and in some cases worsen it (which usually seemed to get worse over time). None of them saw a big jump forward. Most simply languished, or stayed at close to the same level they were, before he bounced to a new job within a few years.
And if we assume that as HC he should at least be able to convey his defensive philosophy to his DC and team, I think we can say he wasn't able to do that.
------
TL;DR - It's pretty clear to me that he could be successful at UNC. But given that their DFEI last year was 77 (1 shy of Georgia Tech), it's going to be really interesting to see if he moves them up, or just keeps them close to where they've been under Gene Chizik. His P5 record suggests it will be more of the same.
ThatGuy
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,024
- Location
- Evergreen, CO
...and just now saw that you did this. Ah, well. I had that tab open for a while, then finally decided to pull it all together this PM.F it...let's go down that rabbit hole.
In 2011 and 2012, Collins was CO-DC with Chris Wilson. 2011, MSU's DFEI was #20, and 2012 it was 37. MSU's defense was not bad at all, and you can make the argument that once Collins was the sole DC, MSU did take a step forward during the two seasons Collins was the DC there. You can also make the argument that MSU's defense also matured in the 2-3 years from 2011 to 2013/2014 and benefitted from SAs maturing and becoming familiar with scheme. I'll give Collins the benefit of doubt here.
In 2015 and 2016, Collins was the DC at UF. During that time, Collins's DFEI was #15 and #8, respectively. In the 2 seasons before that (under another Head Coach...Will Muschamp), UF's DFEI was #3 in 2014 and #5 in 2013. UF's defense was ELITE in the two seasons that preceded Collins and UF's new head coach Jim McElwain and they did inherit a lot of defensive talent from Muschamp.
Collins is definitely entering into uncharted territory for his career. He'll inherit a defense that does have talent (UNC's overall talent on the roster is ranked #3 in the ACC, #17 nationally...but that will change due to graduation, transfer portal, etc.) but came in at #77 DFEI this season. We'll see how it goes for him.
Seems like we're of the same opinion.
Northeast Stinger
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 11,129
So the question for the jury is this. If a defense is loaded with top 20 talent but has a DFEI of 77, what would be considered to be an expected improvement, an understandable improvement, a good improvement, a sensational improvement?
Would be great to get everyone’s standard of measurement on the record before the season results come in. With UNC’s talent you would have to be really horrible to not improve, right? But what would a noteworthy improvement be?
Would be great to get everyone’s standard of measurement on the record before the season results come in. With UNC’s talent you would have to be really horrible to not improve, right? But what would a noteworthy improvement be?
- Messages
- 11,724
We will get a clue next season if TFG is focused and ready to lead a defense. UNC consistently recruits in the top 25 and had a #17 “talent composite”. If he fails, it’s not from players who don’t look the part.
@Northeast Stinger I don’t know how to realistically answer that question. They could have 4* players at every starting and backup position on defense—they have that many at every position. If it’s just recruiting rankings, top 30 is slightly conservative.
It’s not just recruiting rankings, though.
If he can’t get UNC into the defensive top 40, then it’s a problem with him, or the coaches around him, or the player rankings, or something in the water at UNC.
@Northeast Stinger I don’t know how to realistically answer that question. They could have 4* players at every starting and backup position on defense—they have that many at every position. If it’s just recruiting rankings, top 30 is slightly conservative.
It’s not just recruiting rankings, though.
If he can’t get UNC into the defensive top 40, then it’s a problem with him, or the coaches around him, or the player rankings, or something in the water at UNC.
Last edited:
- Messages
- 5,127
This is true. As is the fact that they generally seem to recruit well. To answer NE's question, I would disregard any movement + or - 15 spots to be really satisticallly insignificant. Jumping up from 77 into the top 50 however might be significant and noteworthy. Likewise dropping to 90 or worse would be something to cause concern.
Let's face it...most here are not spring chickens. Collins has picked the perfect spot if he is anything approaching competent. It's always easier to follow the bad manager and clean up rather than follow the guy who was proficient and move the needle forward a great deal.
That "hair" piece looks like what I dig up when I drop my shoulder on an 89 yard chip.
MountainBuzzMan
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,755
- Location
- South Forsyth
They deserve each other. Looking forward to the level of coaching stupidity he will create at a school that deserves it
TromboneJacket
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 877
- Location
- Seattle, WA
I kind of feel like we will hate the man less if our offense lights up his defense. If he somehow manages to shut down our offense, we will all be livid and collectively have the exact same thought: “Where the @&$% was this defensive acumen when he was at Tech?!”
jacketup
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,551
Interesting that when he was here as HC the poor defense was all his fault but when he was elsewhere as DC poor defense was his fault and not the HC.
And never mind that he inherited a defense that hadn't been good for years and lost 8 starters from the 2018 team. And never mind that at each of those three stops mentioned above he was nominated for the Broyles award, as Faulkner was this year. And never mind that Key hasn't done any better with the coaches that Collins was forced to hire because of lack of budget.
As has been said, people are easily deceived because they want to be deceived. Need to blame it on someone because it's too much trouble to look at all the facts.
And never mind that he inherited a defense that hadn't been good for years and lost 8 starters from the 2018 team. And never mind that at each of those three stops mentioned above he was nominated for the Broyles award, as Faulkner was this year. And never mind that Key hasn't done any better with the coaches that Collins was forced to hire because of lack of budget.
As has been said, people are easily deceived because they want to be deceived. Need to blame it on someone because it's too much trouble to look at all the facts.
Techster
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 18,388
...and just now saw that you did this. Ah, well. I had that tab open for a while, then finally decided to pull it all together this PM.
Seems like we're of the same opinion.
I posted the $1 menu version...you went full combo meal and even went crazy with a milk shake!
GT33
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 2,265
This Broyles Award keeps coming up with this guy. All that happens to get nominated is you have a "peer" nominate you. There is no selection process. You can imagine how he got nominated. From that initial nomination list, this year there were 57 nominees, 15 semi-Finalists are selected by the Broyles Award committee. He never made it to the semi-finals. Maybe one of his fanboys can figure out why. Certainly he had to be Top 15 given how great a DC he was, right? Zero Broyles semi-finalist selections in all those years, that is a fact.
Towaliga
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,131
I’ve never blamed our poor defenses when he was here on just him. I blamed the whole team situation (all hat/no cattle, badmouthing the previous coach and that coach's players, poor in game decisions, wanting to be players friends over being their coach, claiming he was coaching at an elite level and anyone that didn’t see it was a fool, getting embarrassed on the scoreboard by multiple teams, having other teams players ridiculing our team for not being prepared, destroying fan and student interest, etc.) on him.
With regards to who he had to hire and he didn’t have the budget, he was supported so much more than his predecessor who seemed to do okay.
LargeFO
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 3,460
That’s a fair point. I was really hoping for Corey Redmond for the DBs but sounds like he’s going back to lsu.
deeznats
Jolly Good Fellow
- Messages
- 469
Do you have an example where someone said when he was DC it was all his fault and no responsibility to the HC or that when he was at GT Thacker had no culpability?
Eli
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,712
He may have the worst hair cut in America
Don't lie to the folks, slugb. He'll be focused on shovin' old a** Mack down some steps** so he might be named interim-HC.
** Note that it's not 'stairs'. He's so old, it'll only take a few steps to wipe him out.
Northeast Stinger
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 11,129
In a vacuum it’s a no brainer that a coach taking over defense at UNC is set up better than a head coach taking over at Alabama. We will now see how the difference in professional competency factors in.