NIL, Transfers, and Stratospheric Salaries. What Is the Future of GT Football and College Football in General?

[georgytech]

I think the sport is dying because of the NIL in part but participation levels are down, aging fan bsse, etc
Also NIL is now in high schools

Tennessee high school sports org votes to allow NIL deals

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — The rulemaking arm of Tennessee’s high school sports oversight organization has made a change that allows student athletes to profit off their name, image and likeness. A news release from the Tennessee Secondary School Athletic Association says its legislative council...

apnews.com

 

[RamblinRed]

I don't think the sport is dying but it is changing.

Attendance at games has been decreasing consistently for over 15 years now (with the exception of 2021 being bigger than 2020 due to COVID).

What's interesting, most plans to update college stadiums now look at reducing the number of seats and trying to create more premium, high revenue experiences. Trading more people for fewer that create higher revenue.

Youth participation in football has also been dropping consistently for over a decade now.

College football also has a fan demographic that is older than average. The average college football viewer is between 45-55 years of age.

 

[jgtengineer]

We won three games with Gibbs and Mason as our backfield. -___-

Whats worse... we rarely had them in the backfield together, even without running the option mason was a hell of a lead blocker makes you wonder what could have been if we hadn't tried to force a tight end and did more 2 back sets with a slot.

 

[iceeater1969]

Whats worse... we rarely had them in the backfield together, even without running the option mason was a hell of a lead blocker makes you wonder what could have been if we hadn't tried to force a tight end and did more 2 back sets with a slot.

Then shifted into an under center.....
Never mind

 

[bennyjacket]

CPJ and staff might not have brought it 4-5 star running backs. However, they definitely found underrated guys who became NFL caliber players. Respect. Hopefully Key can do the same. I was looking at the two TCU running backs yesterday and neither were highly recruited, but they were definitely ballers.

 

[takethepoints]

CPJ and staff might not have brought it 4-5 star running backs. However, they definitely found underrated guys who became NFL caliber players. Respect. Hopefully Key can do the same. I was looking at the two TCU running backs yesterday and neither were highly recruited, but they were definitely ballers.

Not to mention being fast, fast, fast. That squad has better team speed then any outfit I've seen since the great Mildren/Watts Okie outfits. Ugag will have its hands completely full.

 

[Techster]

i like to tell myself that deep down those people are more mad at the system that has been created than gibbs himself.

what gibbs did was 100% the correct decision and anyone would have done so

If some college fans don't come to terms with the new college sports, they might as well stop following college sports altogether. That genie ain't going back in the bottle. GT needs to adjust to the new normal or continue to be disappointed.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

If some college fans don't come to terms with the new college sports, they might as well stop following college sports altogether. That genie ain't going back in the bottle. GT needs to adjust to the new normal or continue to be disappointed.

We should really just start calling it minor league football. That's what it is at this point.

 

[Techster]

We should really just start calling it minor league football. That's what it is at this point.

It's always been minor league football...now players can openly get paid for playing. The "free" transfer rule pretty much made it free agency once NIL was instituted.

Those are the rules of the game now. Play by the rules...or not. Cabrera wants to "play by the rules", it's just a matter of GT navigating the NIL component.

 

[EddieK]

I knew some NIL deals were lucrative, but this really sheds more light on it. From the article about the #27 ranked prospect (#7 QB) Jaden Rashada being let out of his letter of intent from Florida due to a 4 yr/13 million NIL deal falling through:

"Florida quarterback recruit Jaden Rashada requested a release from his national letter of intent Tuesday night after a $13 million name, image and likeness deal fell through, according to multiple reports."

"But his arrival in Gainesville was contingent on a four-year, $13 million NIL deal he signed with the Gator Collective, a person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. The Gator Collective is an independent fundraising arm that disburses money to student-athletes in all sports."

Reports: UF QB commit Rashada wants release

Jaden Rashada requested a release from his national letter of intent with the Gators on Tuesday night after a $13 million name, image and likeness deal fell through, according to multiple reports.

www.espn.com

 

[ThatGuy]

I knew some NIL deals were lucrative, but this really sheds more light on it. From the article about the #27 ranked prospect (#7 QB) Jaden Rashada being let out of his letter of intent from Florida due to a 4 yr/13 million NIL deal falling through:

"Florida quarterback recruit Jaden Rashada requested a release from his national letter of intent Tuesday night after a $13 million name, image and likeness deal fell through, according to multiple reports."

"But his arrival in Gainesville was contingent on a four-year, $13 million NIL deal he signed with the Gator Collective, a person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. The Gator Collective is an independent fundraising arm that disburses money to student-athletes in all sports."

Reports: UF QB commit Rashada wants release

Jaden Rashada requested a release from his national letter of intent with the Gators on Tuesday night after a $13 million name, image and likeness deal fell through, according to multiple reports.

www.espn.com

What would be poetic is the NCAA not letting him out of his signed letter of intent, because "We have no jurisdiction or say over NIL matters."

Not that that would happen, but one can dream.

 

[techfan#14]

This has gotten so far out of control its not even funny. How can college football for lack of a better term ever be "fair" again. How can you pay a high schooler 13 million dollars when he has never thrown a pass. I can get behind getting these guys some money but this is crazy. The rich get richer and college football falls farther and farther away from what I used to enjoy so much!

 

[CuseJacket]

This has gotten so far out of control its not even funny. How can college football for lack of a better term ever be "fair" again. How can you pay a high schooler 13 million dollars when he has never thrown a pass. I can get behind getting these guys some money but this is crazy. The rich get richer and college football falls farther and farther away from what I used to enjoy so much!

FWIW, I could be wrong in my limited understanding, but the reason he never enrolled at FL is because the FL Collective had $13M in 'commitments' but turns out they couldn't actually collect on those commitments. This situation is akin to when you fire a coach, you better be damn sure the boosters who offer to pay the buyout actually pony up.

That means it's also unclear what Rashada's 'real market value' is, though it's still probably high.

 

[link3945]

For pretty much the entire history of the sport we've dealt with coaches jumping programs to make money or just to jump up a level. Why is it, now that the players can do the same thing that their coaches have been doing all along, that this is the death of the sport? Is Lincoln Riley or Brian Kelly or Jimbo Fisher jumping ship to different programs any different from what the players can do with the transfer portal and NIL?

I don't know if this kid is worth 13 million dollars over 4 years, but if he's good enough to put them back in the top flight of the SEC that's far below the value he'll bring to the program.

 

[iceeater1969]

For pretty much the entire history of the sport we've dealt with coaches jumping programs to make money or just to jump up a level. Why is it, now that the players can do the same thing that their coaches have been doing all along, that this is the death of the sport? Is Lincoln Riley or Brian Kelly or Jimbo Fisher jumping ship to different programs any different from what the players can do with the transfer portal and NIL?

I don't know if this kid is worth 13 million dollars over 4 years, but if he's good enough to put them back in the top flight of the SEC that's far below the value he'll bring to the program.

Patriot league here we come will we watch nfl.

 

[MWBATL]

I don't think the sport is dying but it is changing.

Attendance at games has been decreasing consistently for over 15 years now (with the exception of 2021 being bigger than 2020 due to COVID).

What's interesting, most plans to update college stadiums now look at reducing the number of seats and trying to create more premium, high revenue experiences. Trading more people for fewer that create higher revenue.

Youth participation in football has also been dropping consistently for over a decade now.

College football also has a fan demographic that is older than average. The average college football viewer is between 45-55 years of age.

What's fascinating to me is that I have totally lost interest in the NFL. Years ago...well, decades ago, I was a passionate NFL fan. But somewhere (maybe when I turned 50 or so??) I just lost interest in the NFL. It had so clearly become a business on both sides, there was no more rooting interest for me than there was for IBM (I'm dating myself there) or GM or any other corporation. I think free agency likely did that to me, as it felt like any loyalty between player and team was gone.

Now, my rooting interest for college basketball is WAY down. This is true because (1) GT sucks and (2) free agency (again).

I am holding onto my interest in college football...for the moment. But if the whole portal and NIL thing means that every time we get a star we lose him the next year, then poof...I'll be gone again.

I guess I am the odd duck these days compared to the average American sports fan. I used to root for teams because I identified with them...there represented my city or region or trudged up the same Hill I used to every morning for class. Now, I have begun to think of them as rich elite snobs who are just out for my money. Not a whole lot of difference between them and strippers or hookers. (Note, I am not disparaging strippers or hookers, they are simply unregulated capitalism at work.)

 

[Root4GT]

What's fascinating to me is that I have totally lost interest in the NFL. Years ago...well, decades ago, I was a passionate NFL fan. But somewhere (maybe when I turned 50 or so??) I just lost interest in the NFL. It had so clearly become a business on both sides, there was no more rooting interest for me than there was for IBM (I'm dating myself there) or GM or any other corporation. I think free agency likely did that to me, as it felt like any loyalty between player and team was gone.

Now, my rooting interest for college basketball is WAY down. This is true because (1) GT sucks and (2) free agency (again).

I am holding onto my interest in college football...for the moment. But if the whole portal and NIL thing means that every time we get a star we lose him the next year, then poof...I'll be gone again.

I guess I am the odd duck these days compared to the average American sports fan. I used to root for teams because I identified with them...there represented my city or region or trudged up the same Hill I used to every morning for class. Now, I have begun to think of them as rich elite snobs who are just out for my money. Not a whole lot of difference between them and strippers or hookers. (Note, I am not disparaging strippers or hookers, they are simply unregulated capitalism at work.)

Your take is understandable. However, when College Athletic Departments take in near $200M per year any the players really get no true monetary compensation the system is flawed. I did like ACC basketball much much better in the days of the 8 team ACC. We truly did know all our players and all the good players on the other 7 conference teams

Free Agency in pro sports makes it a bit harder to know “your” team. In the MFL true free agency didn’t arrive until the mid 1990s. Prior to then players were basically at the mercy of team owners. Very biased system.

Most NFL players have a very short window for making money. Drafted rookie contracts are set by where the player is chosen. First round picks are 4 year contracts with a team 5th year option. All others are 4 year contracts. Most drafted players don’t get a 2nd contract. Most NFL players suffer significant damage to their bodies.

The very elite players do make big bucks. If you believe in market value concept they are not overpaid. NFL owners make over$100B in profit is they chose to sell their team. They are the rich dudes who don’t do much for their great profits.

 

[BCJacket]

FWIW, I could be wrong in my limited understanding, but the reason he never enrolled at FL is because the FL Collective had $13M in 'commitments' but turns out they couldn't actually collect on those commitments. This situation is akin to when you fire a coach, you better be damn sure the boosters who offer to pay the buyout actually pony up.

That means it's also unclear what Rashada's 'real market value' is, though it's still probably high.

This is why I'm not as doom and gloom on the money and NIL for college football overall. This sort of crazy deal isn't sustainable, even for the biggest 'factory' schools. Right now, NIL is the shiny new thing and big money boosters can buy their team a player (above board) for the first time. It's exciting. But, realistically, look at how many 4 and 5 star players are busts. It's crazy to think they're going to commit to pay high school prospects 7 figures a year. IIUC, the way NIL deals work is that they cannot legally be tied to performance on the field. As long as they stay enrolled and on the roster, they're holding up their end. So, there's going to be a lot of players who never play meaningful downs collecting big checks.

Plus, imagine the Justin Fields UGA situation playing out with the boosters paying him $5 million a year. Coaches are going to get a lot of pressure from boosters to play the kids they're paying. Boosters are going to have tacit control over the roster/recruiting by voting with their checkbooks.

I also don't believe there's an unlimited pool of booster money out there. NIL might make the pie a little bigger by adding another level of interest. (And allowing legit endorsement deals.) But it's going to suck up a lot of money that might otherwise be donated to athletic departments. It's probably going to shake out with about the same amount of money overall going into the CFB universe, just a big chunk of it will now go to directly to the players.

Personally, I think the schools, NCAA and congress are going to have to come up with a totally different system as this spins out of control. My guess is that it's NCAA admitting that revenue sport athletes are student-employees and allowing a college athletes union that negotiates a standard pay scale for all athletes and manages the NIL of all athletes as a collective. (With individual players being able to benefit from bonafide NIL deals - jersey sales, endorsements, personal appearances, etc.)

 

[g0lftime]

May be time to just admit P5 football is a sham at a lot of the big time schools. Just let the universities establish teams that are supported (paid salaries) by the school with school name on the uniform but not required to be students. It would be like a G league team owned by and paid for by the university. It's about at that point in a lot of schools now.

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

May be time to just admit P5 football is a sham at a lot of the big time schools. Just let the universities establish teams that are supported (paid salaries) by the school with school name on the uniform but not required to be students. It would be like a G league team owned by and paid for by the university. It's about at that point in a lot of schools now.

About?