NIL, Transfers, and Stratospheric Salaries. What Is the Future of GT Football and College Football in General?

[roadkill]

I’d agree and expand that it’s (as we all know) it’s the TV deals that are the real drivers here.

Appreciate your comments but I disagree with this at least in part. I believe TV revenue corrupted the system and the ever-increasing deals have led to increased corruption. But I also think that, while TV revenue started the ball rolling downhill, NIL has turbocharged it. NIL is now a key differentiator for recruits, certainly within a conference where members all share the same size pie slice of TV revenue. Look at the recent beefs between Alabama and Texas A&M.

Fair. And to that point, if the focus of the thread is not really about the dismay of the economic state, but rather simply what’s to come next then my rants are little off the focus

Rants are fair game in this thread! Am actually hoping we can keep our rants in this thread and not take other threads on a tangent as I did recently.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

I still wonder if we aren't headed to a situation that the former Notre Dame AD mentioned a few years ago might eventually come to pass, that the day may come where there will be a league of the schools that just want to operate as an NFL minor league and a league with schools that still want to use an actual student-athlete model.

As far as all the current issues happening. The biggest issue of all is that there are no guardrails and so far there is little appetite to create any. NCAA isn't going to do anything to try to put guardrails on money to athletes because they are likely to lose in court.

As another poster mentioned, until players unionize this is the current world. I think it is going to get worse before it gets any better.

This is a small minority opinion but I would be in favor of such a split. UGA, Alabama, Miami, FSU, Clemson, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Tennessee among a host of others should shed the pretense of having players go to class and declare them, in effect, professional athletes and pay them. Since that is what they want so be it. The other schools like Tech, Wake Forest, the service academies, Northwestern, Rice, and others will need to decide what to do. Join the semi pros and be hopelessly outclassed in paying salaries or do what their presidents are inclined to do and adopt a pure student-athlete model with all the restrictions that it entails.

 

[gorcone]

This is a small minority opinion but I would be in favor of such a split. UGA, Alabama, Miami, FSU, Clemson, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Tennessee among a host of others should shed the pretense of having players go to class and declare them, in effect, professional athletes and pay them. Since that is what they want so be it. The other schools like Tech, Wake Forest, the service academies, Northwestern, Rice, and others will need to decide what to do. Join the semi pros and be hopelessly outclassed in paying salaries or do what their presidents are inclined to do and adopt a pure student-athlete model with all the restrictions that it entails.

So if this is the future, why continue with the pretense of college football, or even college athletics?

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

So if this is the future, why continue with the pretense of college football, or even college athletics?

I am beginning to think that is a good question. Why not have a developmental league for the NFL of the various factories? The "pretense" of true amateur athletics with student-athletes who, you know, actually go to class is a worthy goal but likely is doomed.

 

[roadkill]

I am beginning to think that is a good question. Why not have a developmental league for the NFL of the various factories? The "pretense" of true amateur athletics with student-athletes who, you know, actually go to class is a worthy goal but likely is doomed.

The NFL would need to pay for their developmental league, and has no incentive to do so since they get it for free under the current system.

 

[gorcone]

The NFL would need to pay for their developmental league, and has no incentive to do so since they get it for free under the current system.

So what needs to happen to change that?

 

[roadkill]

This is a small minority opinion but I would be in favor of such a split. UGA, Alabama, Miami, FSU, Clemson, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Tennessee among a host of others should shed the pretense of having players go to class and declare them, in effect, professional athletes and pay them. Since that is what they want so be it. The other schools like Tech, Wake Forest, the service academies, Northwestern, Rice, and others will need to decide what to do. Join the semi pros and be hopelessly outclassed in paying salaries or do what their presidents are inclined to do and adopt a pure student-athlete model with all the restrictions that it entails.

I thought about how this concept might work within the current framework of NCAA divisions and subdivisions. Currently, we have D1 which is further divided into FBS and FCS, as well as D2 and D3. The teams have agreed on differentiators mostly in the form of scholarship limits (less aid for the lower tiers). What if we were to have a "Super D1" level that did away with scholarships or any pretense of school? Would any teams or conferences sign up for that? I don't know the answer.

 

[GTBandit22]

The only short term hinderance I can see is an accounting by boosters in a few years.

Texas A&M isn’t the first and won’t be the last of teams that pay big bucks but have lousy seasons. If buying a championship doesn’t come to fruition, do these rich boosters do a ROI calculation and close their wallets, or at least slow way down?

Also the boosters will learn the game, and adjust.
Backloaded deals to keep them around?

Another aspect I often think about is the poison in the locker room. Watching the Shaq documentary, you see a team with not only a slightly past prime Shaq and entering his prime Kobe, but a pretty star studded surrounding cast. Money and jealousy ripped that team apart. Will that happen with colleges? Has it already happened with a team like A&M. One man defending his homeland is worth 10 paid mercenaries. Just something to think about.

 

[roadkill]

More food for thought:

The only overarching entity that currently has power over the entire realm of college football is the NCAA. Its power stems from an agreement among its member institutions. However, its power has greatly diminished in recent years via a series of court rulings, and its plodding bureaucracy has been a day late and a dollar short when faced with recent issues. It also has a tendency to be toothless or inconsistent when attempting to enforce its own rules. I don't see the NCAA as being part of the solution - as an institution, it may continue to exist but primarily will be along for the ride as far as football is concerned.

Conversely, Conferences have been able to keep their members in relative lockstep and have the power to make their own rules, although their rules must currently be the same as, or more restrictive than, the NCAA's. Past examples of this include smaller annual scholarship limits and transfer eligibility rules within the conference. Conferences are responsible for most scheduling and are important to bowls and the playoffs. Their leverage over members is held by their all-important media contract revenue and media rights.
The trend of conference expansion continues. I can see a future where a "superconference" forms to gain even more leverage over the TV revenue pot. Once this superconference reaches critical mass, it could essentially ditch the NCAA as far as football is concerned, and make its own rules to suit its members. In a less extreme scenario, superconference members could remain within the NCAA but establish their own level above the current NCAA D1 and have different rules that conference members agree on. It's a lot easier to gain agreement among 30-40 teams than it is for 400. For Tech fans, there seem to be two attitudes towards this type of scenario - some want to be part of the Superconference, while others would prefer to drop out of the arms race and be content with a lower tier.

 

[gorcone]

More food for thought:

The only overarching entity that currently has power over the entire realm of college football is the NCAA. Its power stems from an agreement among its member institutions. However, its power has greatly diminished in recent years via a series of court rulings, and its plodding bureaucracy has been a day late and a dollar short when faced with recent issues. It also has a tendency to be toothless or inconsistent when attempting to enforce its own rules. I don't see the NCAA as being part of the solution - as an institution, it may continue to exist but primarily will be along for the ride as far as football is concerned.

Conversely, Conferences have been able to keep their members in relative lockstep and have the power to make their own rules, although their rules must currently be the same as, or more restrictive than, the NCAA's. Past examples of this include smaller annual scholarship limits and transfer eligibility rules within the conference. Conferences are responsible for most scheduling and are important to bowls and the playoffs. Their leverage over members is held by their all-important media contract revenue and media rights.
The trend of conference expansion continues. I can see a future where a "superconference" forms to gain even more leverage over the TV revenue pot. Once this superconference reaches critical mass, it could essentially ditch the NCAA as far as football is concerned, and make its own rules to suit its members. In a less extreme scenario, superconference members could remain within the NCAA but establish their own level above the current NCAA D1 and have different rules that conference members agree on. It's a lot easier to gain agreement among 30-40 teams than it is for 400. For Tech fans, there seem to be two attitudes towards this type of scenario - some want to be part of the Superconference, while others would prefer to drop out of the arms race and be content with a lower tier.

So there is the question.....what is the answer for us, do we try to compete in the status quo or do we find the best way ahead for us?

 

[roadkill]

So there is the question.....what is the answer for us, do we try to compete in the status quo or do we find the best way ahead for us?

Well, Tech's coach, AD, and Pres seem to want to play with the big boys.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

I thought about how this concept might work within the current framework of NCAA divisions and subdivisions. Currently, we have D1 which is further divided into FBS and FCS, as well as D2 and D3. The teams have agreed on differentiators mostly in the form of scholarship limits (less aid for the lower tiers). What if we were to have a "Super D1" level that did away with scholarships or any pretense of school? Would any teams or conferences sign up for that? I don't know the answer.

"What if we were to have a "Super D1" level that did away with scholarships or any pretense of school? Would any teams or conferences sign up for that?" The entire SEC, Clemson, Miami, FSU, and quite a few others are practically there now.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Well, Tech's coach, AD, and Pres seem to want to play with the big boys.

If that is the case, then they best get money, lots of money, and a total commitment to football. Otherwise, it might get embarrassing.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Didn't the players from the Big 10 try that a few years ago?

Northwestern University. Jim Phillips navigated that situation. It would be interesting to see how that situation would play out today. Very different world today.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Wait, what? Forensic, you’re far more astute than I am (and a highly recognized contributed here) but I’m not connecting on this union fix one bit.

I think what OP is referring to is the overall ridiculous (my added opinion) dump of money into amateur athletics. So how do players forming a union help put this in control? It seems to me a union insinuates that players should simply get more and more than they’re already getting. Which of course will only exacerbate the current situation, eg there is no cap on anything.

Historically unions only serve to benefits themselves (constituents) and care nothing about the macro system. So I’d love to hear you expound on the unionization angle, if you would?

I'm just a guy who shares his opinion probably more than I should.

My comment was how to put a cap on the out of control spending. The only way I see it happening is if they follow the NFL model. That involves a players' union and collective bargaining with the AA's/

 

[Tundeballer]

Feels like the NCAA could solve a lot of the displeasure with the transfer portal by requiring non-grads to sit out a year like they used to. Would disincentivize NIL induced poaching.

 

[85Escape]

First suggestion I've seen that might actually be workable and slightly helpful.

I'd add that the school who lost the player actually get's the scholly from the receiving school. The original school can use the scholly for a transfer or a freshman. At least then we'd get to see top players for a year or two. As it is now, we lose both the top players and then two years later lose the ones who slip through.

 

[UgaBlows]

This is a small minority opinion but I would be in favor of such a split. UGA, Alabama, Miami, FSU, Clemson, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Tennessee among a host of others should shed the pretense of having players go to class and declare them, in effect, professional athletes and pay them. Since that is what they want so be it. The other schools like Tech, Wake Forest, the service academies, Northwestern, Rice, and others will need to decide what to do. Join the semi pros and be hopelessly outclassed in paying salaries or do what their presidents are inclined to do and adopt a pure student-athlete model with all the restrictions that it entails.

What would keep NIL and free transfers from happening in your academic league? Or keep the pro schools from picking off your best players year after year anyway? And how many schools in the BIG, SEC, etc do you think are gonna give up that sweet Conf TV money?

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Scholarship limits are the only tool that would help. Every time they limit scholarships, it creates parity for a time. 15 per year and 50 max would be a start. Cap the NIL. And limit portal jumps to one per career with no exceptions. And you can’t transfer to a school that was ranked higher than the the one you’re leaving. Will never happen, but it would level the field a bit.

 

[southernhive]

I am beginning to think that is a good question. Why not have a developmental league for the NFL of the various factories? The "pretense" of true amateur athletics with student-athletes who, you know, actually go to class is a worthy goal but likely is doomed.

It has been heading in this direction for a long time. To me it is inevitable unless we reverse course. All this is due to the revenue created by a few schools.