NIL, Transfers, and Stratospheric Salaries. What Is the Future of GT Football and College Football in General?

[roadkill]

The recent spate of transfer announcements, together with the coaching carousel, has prompted quite a bit of angst concerning the direction and future of college football in general, and Georgia Tech’s role in this new landscape. The changes seem unsustainable, yet they continue to accelerate.

Where do we really see this going in the near and intermediate term? Some have suggested that the traditional powers will, or should, form their own pro league. Are caps on salaries and NIL feasible? What controls or rules would work? I have some thoughts on the topic but wanted to start a new thread rather than hijack another.

 

[forensicbuzz]

The recent spate of transfer announcements, together with the coaching carousel, has prompted quite a bit of angst concerning the direction and future of college football in general, and Georgia Tech’s role in this new landscape. The changes seem unsustainable, yet they continue to accelerate.

Where do we really see this going in the near and intermediate term? Some have suggested that the traditional powers will, or should, form their own pro league. Are caps on salaries and NIL feasible? What controls or rules would work? I have some thoughts on the topic but wanted to start a new thread rather than hijack another.

The only way to get caps on a salary is to have the players form a union and have a collective bargaining agreement in place. That's not going to happen soon, in my opinion, unless there is a divestment of the revenue sports from the university.

 

[roadkill]

The only way to get caps on a salary is to have the players form a union and have a collective bargaining agreement in place. That's not going to happen soon, in my opinion, unless there is a divestment of the revenue sports from the university.

Agree. That's one of the aspects of the current situation that make it difficult to predict and a challenge to resolve.

Normally, the "market" will find an equilibrium point that in the business world would result in some level of equity for most participants in a league. As I see it, there are wild cards such as boosters that have created a deeply unbalanced landscape. Boosters have no profit motive, they just want to win.

 

[stech81]

The only way to get caps on a salary is to have the players form a union and have a collective bargaining agreement in place. That's not going to happen soon, in my opinion, unless there is a divestment of the revenue sports from the university.

Didn't the players from the Big 10 try that a few years ago?

 

[RamblinRed]

I still wonder if we aren't headed to a situation that the former Notre Dame AD mentioned a few years ago might eventually come to pass, that the day may come where there will be a league of the schools that just want to operate as an NFL minor league and a league with schools that still want to use an actual student-athlete model.

As far as all the current issues happening. The biggest issue of all is that there are no guardrails and so far there is little appetite to create any. NCAA isn't going to do anything to try to put guardrails on money to athletes because they are likely to lose in court.

As another poster mentioned, until players unionize this is the current world. I think it is going to get worse before it gets any better.

 

[JacketFan137]

i think separately NIL and the portal are good things but combined they create this mess that we’re in. i feel like they would solve the problem if you were ineligible for NIL until a year after your transfer. similar to how you used to be unable to play for a year

 

[roadkill]

I still wonder if we aren't headed to a situation that the former Notre Dame AD mentioned a few years ago might eventually come to pass, that the day may come where there will be a league of the schools that just want to operate as an NFL minor league and a league with schools that still want to use an actual student-athlete model.

As far as all the current issues happening. The biggest issue of all is that there are no guardrails and so far there is little appetite to create any. NCAA isn't going to do anything to try to put guardrails on money to athletes because they are likely to lose in court.

As another poster mentioned, until players unionize this is the current world. I think it is going to get worse before it gets any better.

Agree, but what incentive do players have to unionize? Right now its a "have your cake and eat it too" type of situation for them.

 

[roadkill]

i think separately NIL and the portal are good things but combined they create this mess that we’re in. i feel like they would solve the problem if you were ineligible for NIL until a year after your transfer. similar to how you used to be unable to play for a year

Don't see how restricting NIL would stand up in court. It would likely be considered restraint of trade or some such issue that runs afoul of free market regulations.

Right now the NCAA is the only overarching governing entity that can establish rules for schools and S-As. Yet they have shown themselves to be totally reactive in approach and so far behind reality that their defense of the recent lawsuit resulted in a rare unanimous decision against them at the Supreme court. And that's hard to do these days.

 

[ibeattetris]

i think separately NIL and the portal are good things but combined they create this mess that we’re in. i feel like they would solve the problem if you were ineligible for NIL until a year after your transfer. similar to how you used to be unable to play for a year

Just make incoming transfers count against incoming scholarships limits. I think that will help some. Teams have no penalty to sign 25 and accept 10-15 transfer as long as they run off/graduate enough. Make teams choose what to focus on.

 

[roadkill]

Just make incoming transfers count against incoming scholarships limits. I think that will help some. Teams have no penalty to sign 25 and accept 10-15 transfer as long as they run off/graduate enough. Make teams choose what to focus on.

First suggestion I've seen that might actually be workable and slightly helpful.

 

[roadkill]

First suggestion I've seen that might actually be workable and slightly helpful.

On second thought, I'm not so sure it would help, and might actually hurt schools that are apt to have smaller NIL deals.

What is the value of limiting scholarships in an environment where the value of NIL deals can be multiples of a scholarship's value? What's to stop someone from bypassing scholarship limits by offering an athlete an NIL deal worth more than the scholly? All it takes is for the school to play along and accept the athlete as a student. The only rule currently in effect that could limit this is the total player count.

 

[yeti92]

Just make incoming transfers count against incoming scholarships limits. I think that will help some. Teams have no penalty to sign 25 and accept 10-15 transfer as long as they run off/graduate enough. Make teams choose what to focus on.

I like this idea, how effective would it be though? It reduces the number of available spots in the portal, but I would think that just keeps more of the underperforming players from transferring. Your top few guys who look like a sure bet will still hit the portal if they know theres a lot more money headed their way.

 

[ibeattetris]

I like this idea, how effective would it be though? It reduces the number of available spots in the portal, but I would think that just keeps more of the underperforming players from transferring. Your top few guys who look like a sure bet will still hit the portal if they know theres a lot more money headed their way.

You are right, and I agree it doesn’t completely solve things. Even before free transfers kids were willing to transfer and lose a year (or redshirt), so I am not sure anything would completely stop the situation you are referring to. It’s just going to be about recruiting people that fit your team’s mission and culture and hoping they stay committed.

 

[ibeattetris]

What's to stop someone from bypassing scholarship limits by offering an athlete an NIL deal worth more than the scholly?

BYU has an NIL initiate that pays for all walk ons’ tuition. We are already close to that.

 

[UgaBlows]

Agree, but what incentive do players have to unionize? Right now its a "have your cake and eat it too" type of situation for them.

If the have-nots, rank and file type players that make up 75% of the rosters decide they want a peice of the millions of NIL dollars they see the star players getting

 

[MusicalBuzz]

The only way to get caps on a salary is to have the players form a union and have a collective bargaining agreement in place. That's not going to happen soon, in my opinion, unless there is a divestment of the revenue sports from the university.

Wait, what? Forensic, you’re far more astute than I am (and a highly recognized contributed here) but I’m not connecting on this union fix one bit.

I think what OP is referring to is the overall ridiculous (my added opinion) dump of money into amateur athletics. So how do players forming a union help put this in control? It seems to me a union insinuates that players should simply get more and more than they’re already getting. Which of course will only exacerbate the current situation, eg there is no cap on anything.

Historically unions only serve to benefits themselves (constituents) and care nothing about the macro system. So I’d love to hear you expound on the unionization angle, if you would?

 

[MusicalBuzz]

Agree. That's one of the aspects of the current situation that make it difficult to predict and a challenge to resolve.

Normally, the "market" will find an equilibrium point that in the business world would result in some level of equity for most participants in a league. As I see it, there are wild cards such as boosters that have created a deeply unbalanced landscape. Boosters have no profit motive, they just want to win.

I’d agree and expand that it’s (as we all know) it’s the TV deals that are the real drivers here. And so no more is it a limited group of people or fans in the stands that drive revenue: with TV it’s effectively an economic socialization — whether one supports football or not, if you like Bud (), or Dr Pepper or Tostitos.. you’re paying a portion more for the costs on the product. Or, if you have cable — much discussed here — you’re paying quite a bit more on your cable bill. So .. in some way of thinking.. CFB and all sports is a general social tax on Americans. And it’s BIG pool to dry up before the equilibrium finds its place. IIWII.

 

[roadkill]

Wait, what? Forensic, you’re far more astute than I am (and a highly recognized contributed here) but I’m not connecting on this union fix one bit.

I think what OP is referring to is the overall ridiculous (my added opinion) dump of money into amateur athletics. So how do players forming a union help put this in control? It seems to me a union insinuates that players should simply get more and more than they’re already getting. Which of course will only exacerbate the current situation, eg there is no cap on anything.

Historically unions only serve to benefits themselves (constituents) and care nothing about the macro system. So I’d love to hear you expound on the unionization angle, if you would?

I don't want to speak for @forensicbuzz but my takeaway from his mention of a player's union is that it's based on the NFL model. Perhaps the union's collective bargaining agreement with the NFL allows for things like their salary cap which might otherwise run afoul of laws prohibiting restraint of trade and competition.

 

[MusicalBuzz]

And, another thing: ban guaranteed contracts. Because even one year’s salary is enough to set for life. But to get paid millions for having done nothing more than suck at your job is utterly stupid. And I’m damn sick and tired of hearing about who and the other we’re paying years later after sucking. </rant>

 

[MusicalBuzz]

I don't want to speak for @forensicbuzz but my takeaway from his mention of a player's union is that it's based on the NFL model. Perhaps the union's collective bargaining agreement with the NFL allows for things like their salary cap which might otherwise run afoul of laws prohibiting restraint of trade and competition.

Fair. And to that point, if the focus of the thread is not really about the dismay of the economic state, but rather simply what’s to come next then my rants are little off the focus