NIL in CBB

[dtm1997]

Haven't read the article, but thought people would enjoy the quote.

 

[Steverc]

All of that and don't look at the drastically incorrect On3 data on NIL value.

How do you know the data is incorrect?

 

[cpf2001]

A bit more from that Athletic article (I got paywalled out shortly after scrolling past this quote, though):

One SEC head coach, who requested anonymity so as not to jeopardize recruiting relationships, said he recently met with a recruit who believed another athlete at his school had made seven figures in NIL compensation.

“Not even close,” the coach said. “Those NIL valuation tools and reports that are out there are a complete joke — and they do more harm than good. Nobody knows what is real in NIL.”

The On3 data doesn't even claim to be an accurate representation of what anyone on their list *has actually gotten*, just

While the algorithm includes deal data, it does not act as a tracker of the value of NIL deals athletes have completed to date, nor does it set an athlete’s NIL valuation for their entire career. The On3 NIL Valuation calculates the optimized NIL opportunity for athletes relative to the overall NIL market and projects out to as long as 12 months into the future.

Or, the shorter way they put it in their google search result snippet:

These rankings are based on the potential influence they have as an individual.

So if a player they say has "1M potential" isn't getting one million they could just claim that they "aren't living up to their potential for hustling for marketing deals" or somesuch.

Right now few people have an incentive to disclose the accurate numbers, so it's not too surprising that the hype-train jumpers-on are creating unrealistic expectations.

There will definitely be kids making mistakes in the meantime, but hopefully (a) things settle down over time and get some more structure and (b) learning lessons from mistakes around transferring schools might be lower-impact than career decision/money-management mistakes later in life?

 

[slugboy]

A bit more from that Athletic article (I got paywalled out shortly after scrolling past this quote, though):


The On3 data doesn't even claim to be an accurate representation of what anyone on their list *has actually gotten*, just



Or, the shorter way they put it in their google search result snippet:


So if a player they say has "1M potential" isn't getting one million they could just claim that they "aren't living up to their potential for hustling for marketing deals" or somesuch.

Right now few people have an incentive to disclose the accurate numbers, so it's not too surprising that the hype-train jumpers-on are creating unrealistic expectations.

There will definitely be kids making mistakes in the meantime, but hopefully (a) things settle down over time and get some more structure and (b) learning lessons from mistakes around transferring schools might be lower-impact than career decision/money-management mistakes later in life?

On3 says they have a secret and proprietary formula for calculating a player’s NIL value. They say that they base the total available money on interviews of college affiliated NIL collectives, then On3 allocates that money based on what they calculated the player’s score as.

They don’t claim to check this number against a significant sample of players. As far as I know, They aren’t looking at bank deposits for any QB or DE to see if they were close.

I give them credit for talking to NIL collectives, but I’d need to see more to trust the numbers for On3.

On the other hand, there’s no telling how accurate the message board rumors are for how much a certain player is getting.

 

[ESPNjacket]

How do you know the data is incorrect?

I am not a moron.

 

[YlJacket]

I’ll go back to what I heard and said a while back after listening to guys fro 3 ACC teams. Top 20 or so HS guys are asking/getting mid to high 6 figure deals but it drops quickly after that At the top 100 or so level the numbers are 50k and lower. Maybe 0

As for On3, I spend a ton of time projecting valuations for companies- what they should be. Never seems to hold up when you go see the group actually writing checks

 

[kg01]

I am not a moron.

I'm telling ya, we're missing a yuge opportunity to come up with a rival site. What do we have to lose? You can literally ... literally make the numbers up and no one would know or care.

 

[ramblinjacket]

Haven't read the article, but thought people would enjoy the quote.

College basketball recruiting: NIL intrigue, EYBL’s best players, hig…

archived 26 Apr 2023 00:44:02 UTC

archive.is

 

[orientalnc]

I'm telling ya, we're missing a yuge opportunity to come up with a rival site. What do we have to lose? You can literally ... literally make the numbers up and no one would know or care.

I am willing to share my proprietary internet BS algorithm with you and we could tweak it for NIL rankings.

 

[slugboy]

I am willing to share my proprietary internet BS algorithm with you and we could tweak it for NIL rankings.

You’ll “Excel” your way to riches.

 

[GTpdm]

I am willing to share my proprietary internet BS algorithm with you and we could tweak it for NIL rankings.

@kg01 already has a proprietary algorithm for internet BS…posting anything at all.

 

[ESPNjacket]

I'm telling ya, we're missing a yuge opportunity to come up with a rival site. What do we have to lose? You can literally ... literally make the numbers up and no one would know or care.

It is a perfect opportunity for someone who knows nothing to pretend they know something and other people who know nothing to buy it. I agree. I think you are too honest for it.

I know enough about statistical modeling to know that whatever these dudes are doing is taking essentially random numbers, tossing them in some pot of math, and claiming, well, something.

 

[Peacone36]

It is a perfect opportunity for someone who knows nothing to pretend they know something and other people who know nothing to buy it. I agree. I think you are too honest for it.

I know enough about statistical modeling to know that whatever these dudes are doing is taking essentially random numbers, tossing them in some pot of math, and claiming, well, something.

Sounds like what @kg01 already does daily sans math

 

[kg01]

@kg01 already has a proprietary algorithm for internet BS…posting anything at all.

It is a perfect opportunity for someone who knows nothing to pretend they know something and other people who know nothing to buy it. I agree. I think you are too honest for it.

I know enough about statistical modeling to know that whatever these dudes are doing is taking essentially random numbers, tossing them in some pot of math, and claiming, well, something.

Exactly my point.

Sounds like what @kg01 already does daily sans math

 

[CuseJacket]

KU's Dickinson implies NIL a factor in transfer

Former Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson suggested that his name, image and likeness earnings played a role in his decision to transfer to Kansas.

www.espn.com

"The people hating on me would leave their job right now for a $10,000 increase," Dickinson said. "I got, at Michigan, less than six figures. I got less than six figures at Michigan for the year."

But Kansas, he said, felt like the best option.

"I think this is the best place for me," he said. "It checks all the boxes. Worst-case scenario, it still works out fine for me [at Kansas]."

 

[LargeFO]

KU's Dickinson implies NIL a factor in transfer

Former Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson suggested that his name, image and likeness earnings played a role in his decision to transfer to Kansas.

www.espn.com

I mean he ain't wrong on the first part.

 

[Peacone36]

He’s not wrong and he’s not to blame.

 

[dtm1997]

 

[D-man44]

So we will need at least $350k for Caleb Wilson I imagine. Going to need Tech to do well in year 1.

 

[YlJacket]

Looks like NIL is soon to be yesterday's news

CA bill to make athletes get salaries