Next....UCF

SWATlien

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UCF has a lot of team speed and a solid accurate qb. The qb also throws a nice deep ball. They have above average playmakers but I think GT should be able to keep their run contained.

Defensively they have a good secondary but no Samuels types. The Dline is small too. Sims should be able to move the ball. Can GT’s D slow down UCF offense?

I think they can.
 
tech_wreck47

tech_wreck47

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Keep in mind they have their back up QB not playing, a few on the OL (1 starter and others in the 2 deep) if I’m not mistaken plus a starting DT and CB.
 
boger2337

boger2337

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We are a 7.5 point dog. UCF is getting 65% of the bets and 99% of the early money. Over under opened at 62 and has dropped to 61 rightfully so.
 
Techster

Techster

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UCF will be MUCH tougher to play against than FSU. I think we score more points against UCF, but we will need to put more points up against them as well. That offense is GOOD. Their QB is gonna be a star (BTW, interesting tidbit: Gabriel's father played QB for CPJ in Hawaii. He's the QB GT fans use to refer to when saying CPJ can coach passing QBs. Life is just one big circle).

IMO, this one is on our defense. Can our defense slow down UCF's offense enough to help our offense? If we can't slow down UCF's offense, it could be a LOOONG day. I like the direction our offense is going, but we're not explosive by any means...and it's not like we lit the scoreboard up against FSU. UCF has an explosive offense.

The good news is that our defense also looks better. We can get to the QB a little better, and we have more size along the defensive front.

This is an interesting matchup. I think our offense can hurt UCF...but their offense can hurt us as well.

Of course, now that I say that, it'll probably be a low scoring field goal fest.
 
boger2337

boger2337

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tomknight said:
wonder if they'll punk out since a tropical depression is coming through on friday.

i guess the new fake surface will help, since the field won't be sloppy after 3 days of rain.
Click to expand...
Field should be 100% playable which is nice. No soaked footballs, and you can actually dry your hands off. On grass everything is wet all the time. Head to toe you are soaked. Ball is waterlogged. Never a fun time.
 

yeti92

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I think we match up well against UCF actually. Yes they have a qb much more talented than Blackman at FSU, and maybe better O-line than FSU, but I expect our offense will be able to roll over their D easier than we did FSU's, and we had 430 yards against FSU, just shot ourselves in the foot repeatedly near the goal line - could have very easily had another 14+ points. I think the
key will be how our d line does. If they can keep pressure on the qb and force bad decisions, the secondary will cover well and get some turnovers and I expect our offense will be able to roll pretty easily. Don't think Sims needs to do much this game, let the RBs grind their defense up.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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Techster said:
UCF will be MUCH tougher to play against than FSU. I think we score more points against UCF, but we will need to put more points up against them as well. That offense is GOOD. Their QB is gonna be a star (BTW, interesting tidbit: Gabriel's father played QB for CPJ in Hawaii. He's the QB GT fans use to refer to when saying CPJ can coach passing QBs. Life is just one big circle).

IMO, this one is on our defense. Can our defense slow down UCF's offense enough to help our offense? If we can't slow down UCF's offense, it could be a LOOONG day. I like the direction our offense is going, but we're not explosive by any means...and it's not like we lit the scoreboard up against FSU. UCF has an explosive offense.

The good news is that our defense also looks better. We can get to the QB a little better, and we have more size along the defensive front.

This is an interesting matchup. I think our offense can hurt UCF...but their offense can hurt us as well.

Of course, now that I say that, it'll probably be a low scoring field goal fest.
Click to expand...

Pretty much spot on Techster. This team is explosive. Averaged over 500 yards a game last year and scored about 42 points a game. Both were good enough for first in the AAC. They lost 3 games: to Pitt on a last minute trick play after coming from three touchdowns down in the second half, they lost to a very ordinary Tulsa team by a point in a wild shootout, and they lost to conference champion Cincy in a game that we should try to imitate. The score was 27-24. Unlike most teams in the AAC, Cincy is a Big Integer style physical smash mouth kind of team that plays good defense. They beat UCF by slowing the game down and running the ball effectively enough to play keep away. That is a blueprint for us to use as well. Run the ball with Mason and make them drive the length of the field. This is a team that thrives on big plays, take those away by shutting down their all purpose back Anderson and it becomes manageable.
 
slugboy

slugboy

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For stats nerds, ESPN has updated their "Football Power Index", and we moved up, but are still way behind UCF.

They have an efficiencies metric that has us 10th of teams that have played, 2nd defensively, 16th offensively, and 40th in special teams. It doesn't mean much--it's just one game, but holding an opponent to 13 and low yardage just did wonders for that. It's a little funny to me that I'm seeing and hearing more about the offense after Saturday, but the numbers--such as they are--really liked our defense. (Seriously, it's just a number and just week #1, and meaningless at this point)

From what I've seen against UCF, most teams don't slow the game down against them--they've traded scores and gone for turnovers. Getting the turnover advantage was huge in the wins over them in the past two years. Getting Swilling back out at corner might be huge for this game.

Thacker has a big job this week, and Burton's got to figure out how to keep their receivers in check.

I would have expected UCF to have a nice turnover ratio--they're barely in the top 30 at +0.4/game. On defense, they were getting 1.6 turnovers per game, but they were giving up 1.2/game. They have a lot of interception highlights, so that sticks with you when you watch them. We were -0.5 per game last year (losing more than we got).

If you want to go run-heavy, our run blocking on Saturday wasn't our strength. Our pass blocking was better.

Here's a "depth chart" from their SBNation blog. CBS has UCF's roster sorted by position. They have a couple of defensive linemen close to 300 lbs, but mostly they're not a heavy crew. They're supposed to be able to move, though. I can safely say that FSU had bigger DTs.
 
Fatmike91

Fatmike91

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Heisman's Ghost said:
and they lost to conference champion Cincy in a game that we should try to imitate. The score was 27-24. Unlike most teams in the AAC, Cincy is a Big Integer style physical smash mouth kind of team that plays good defense. They beat UCF by slowing the game down and running the ball effectively enough to play keep away. That is a blueprint for us to use as well. Run the ball with Mason and make them drive the length of the field. This is a team that thrives on big plays, take those away by shutting down their all purpose back Anderson and it becomes manageable.
Click to expand...

So our strategy is:

Bend don’t break defense. Run the ball. Control the clock. Limit possessions. Here comes another dive... oh boy!

We’ve watched this strategy every game for a decade with CPJ... Maybe that old cat knew something about the game?

/
 
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