New playoff model

[WreckinGT]

ND get an automatic bid?

Yes. Plus power 4 champs get auto bids. With NDs schedule, they are pretty much already in the playoff.

 

[g0lftime]

B1G doesn't want 16. All the other conferences want 16 . Since SEC and B1G run the CFP, the B1G can block expansion. Where was Phillips during the establishment of the CFP ?

 

[Richard7125]

The SEC/Big10 dispute between 16 teams and 24 teams is more between ESPN and Fox than it is between the SEC and Big10. From a financial backing perspective ESPN = SEC, Fox = Big10. Currently, ESPN owns the majority of the broadcasting rights for CFP games through 2031/32 season. Expanding to 24 teams would open new negotiations for CFP games giving Fox an opportunity to broadcast games. Bringing Fox into the picture would most likely cause ESPN to pay more for the inventory they currently own.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

The SEC/Big10 dispute between 16 teams and 24 teams is more between ESPN and Fox than it is between the SEC and Big10. From a financial backing perspective ESPN = SEC, Fox = Big10. Currently, ESPN owns the majority of the broadcasting rights for CFP games through 2031/32 season. Expanding to 24 teams would open new negotiations for CFP games giving Fox an opportunity to broadcast games. Bringing Fox into the picture would most likely cause ESPN to pay more for the inventory they currently own.

All true. But the path forward is known, now it’s just details and timing. A 24 team playoff is coming whether it starts in 2027 or we ride out the ESPN contract until 2030. In the scheme of the sport it’s a blip in time. Of course by the time we get to it I expect and hope the ACC either disappears or is relegated as schools leave. I hate to say it but certain schools have been hosed by the ACC in favor of others and the chickens will eventually come home to roost for the ACC.

 

[stinger78]

B1G doesn't want 16. All the other conferences want 16 . Since SEC and B1G run the CFP, the B1G can block expansion. Where was Phillips during the establishment of the CFP ?

Sipping tea with the TRM in Charlotte?

 

[Richard7125]

All true. But the path forward is known, now it’s just details and timing. A 24 team playoff is coming whether it starts in 2027 or we ride out the ESPN contract until 2030. In the scheme of the sport it’s a blip in time. Of course by the time we get to it I expect and hope the ACC either disappears or is relegated as schools leave. I hate to say it but certain schools have been hosed by the ACC in favor of others and the chickens will eventually come home to roost for the ACC.

That wasn’t the point of my post. I was trying to figure out why the Big10 and SEC couldn’t come to an agreement now not where the CFP might be in 7 years. It’s understandable if you look at it from Fox’s and ESPN’s perspective (vs the conferences’ perspectives).

 

[GT1990CHAMPS]

I truly believe that the entities are indeed one in the same, The SEC is to ESPN as the Big10 is to Fox.

 

[Richard7125]

I truly believe that the entities are indeed one in the same, The SEC is to ESPN as the Big10 is to Fox.

I don't go quite that far, but in many scenarios they are indistinguishable.

 

[1979jacket]

I definitely think ESPN and Fox are leading the conferences on their positions for # of teams. Must be hard for Sankey to take orders from somebody (ESPN) but he will do it for the almighty SEC and the dollar. The Big I guy is tied to the hip with TV execs so he is used to it.

I also am not as sure as others that ACC, and for that matter Big 12, are going to be raided and destroyed eventually. I just think SEC and Big I schools are not going to expand unless there is added value in it for them and right now I don't think Clemson, FSU UNC or any other team adds value. I think we may add as much value as any school because of Atlanta but still are dilutive to their payouts if added.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

That wasn’t the point of my post. I was trying to figure out why the Big10 and SEC couldn’t come to an agreement now not where the CFP might be in 7 years. It’s understandable if you look at it from Fox’s and ESPN’s perspective (vs the conferences’ perspectives).

The SEC doesn’t want to expand past 16 because they know that will benefit other conferences more than them. They’ll have close to half the field in a 12 or 16 teamer like they did this year. They know that 24 will bring in more “others” due to auto bids which the SEC hates. They want the polls to continue to be the controlling factor because they know that benefits them (see the early preseason polls for next year that are more of the same for a conference that hasn’t won squat lately).

The BIG wants to expand into the south and eventually have pods in each part of the country so they want more teams in now because they know the minute they ask SMU, GT, UNC and others that they’ll jump so they are simply setting up the future system.

And the simple fact is the majority of fans want expansion. It’s always been that way but it’s always the vocal minority that gets the media attention which is why every step from voting, to the BCS, to 4, then to 12, has been struggle if you watch the media. But the fans have flocked to the games. This years numbers once again prove it. So it’s just a matter of time whether Sankey agrees or not.

 

[billga99]

I definitely think ESPN and Fox are leading the conferences on their positions for # of teams. Must be hard for Sankey to take orders from somebody (ESPN) but he will do it for the almighty SEC and the dollar. The Big I guy is tied to the hip with TV execs so he is used to it.

I also am not as sure as others that ACC, and for that matter Big 12, are going to be raided and destroyed eventually. I just think SEC and Big I schools are not going to expand unless there is added value in it for them and right now I don't think Clemson, FSU UNC or any other team adds value. I think we may add as much value as any school because of Atlanta but still are dilutive to their payouts if added.

I think this is the crux of why ESPN is driving the SEC to stay at no more than 16 teams. (this came from AI). Obviously Fox is pushing the Big Ten to 24 teams to figure out a way to be able to broadcast some of the College Football Playoffs.

If the College Football Playoff expands to 24 teams, it is likely that the existing media rights agreements, primarily with ESPN, would need to be renegotiated to accommodate the increased number of games and potential scheduling changes. This could lead to more broadcast opportunities and possibly additional networks being involved in the coverage.

Today ESPN has exclusive rights through 2032.
https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2024/3/19/espn-extension-2032.aspx

 

[LT 1967]

One other change to the 2026 playoff that might not have been noticed. See article and excerpt below.

he College Football Playoff is making a slight change to the 12-team format for the 2026 season.

The guaranteed Group of Six CFP bid no longer has to be a conference champion but will rather go to the highest-ranked non-Power Four program, The Athletic reported Jan. 27. The previous format included the five highest-ranked conference champions but now guarantees bids to the four Power Four conference title winners, while also granting Notre Dame a spot if it is anywhere in the top 12.

MSN

 

[yeti92]

One other change to the 2026 playoff that might not have been noticed. See article and excerpt below.

he College Football Playoff is making a slight change to the 12-team format for the 2026 season.

The guaranteed Group of Six CFP bid no longer has to be a conference champion but will rather go to the highest-ranked non-Power Four program, The Athletic reported Jan. 27. The previous format included the five highest-ranked conference champions but now guarantees bids to the four Power Four conference title winners, while also granting Notre Dame a spot if it is anywhere in the top 12.

MSN

So does Notre Dame have a shot at that spot then, even if they aren't in the top 12? Or are they considered P4 for these purposes?

 

[billga99]

So does Notre Dame have a shot at that spot then, even if they aren't in the top 12? Or are they considered P4 for these purposes?

I would guess they are still eligible but the math would really work against them. Assuming in most years Group of 6 teams are not in Top 12, they still get a bid. That means 12th ranked team gets bumped. If one of the Power 4 champs is not in Top 12, that means both the 11th and 12th ranked teams get bumped (like this year when 2 conference champs were outside of Top 12 - Tulane and JMU). What would be interesting is using one specific scenario. Imagine if one P4 conference champ and Group of 6 champ outside the Top 12. That means the 10th and 11th ranked teams get bumped while 12th ranked Notre Dame is in. I can't even imagine the outrage on that scenario.

 

[IronJacket7]

 

[Richard7125]

I would guess they are still eligible but the math would really work against them. Assuming in most years Group of 6 teams are not in Top 12, they still get a bid. That means 12th ranked team gets bumped. If one of the Power 4 champs is not in Top 12, that means both the 11th and 12th ranked teams get bumped (like this year when 2 conference champs were outside of Top 12 - Tulane and JMU). What would be interesting is using one specific scenario. Imagine if one P4 conference champ and Group of 6 champ outside the Top 12. That means the 10th and 11th ranked teams get bumped while 12th ranked Notre Dame is in. I can't even imagine the outrage on that scenario.

This happens all of the time in Hoops. You typically need to be ranked 40 to 45 to make the 64 team field and even that isn't guaranteed.

 

[LT 1967]

So does Notre Dame have a shot at that spot then, even if they aren't in the top 12? Or are they considered P4 for these purposes?

Just my opinion, but I don't believe ND has a chance to get in unless they are ranked 12 or above. They are like an automatically qualified Conference Champ except they have to be ranked 12 or above.

I may be missing something, but I couldn't develop a scenario where they are ranked 13, 14 or 15 and still get in. If they are ranked 12 or above, we basically have 6 automatic qualifiers and 6 at large.

I certainly don't consider myself any kind of expert on this, strange things seem to develop as far as the CFP is concerned.

 

[Mandingo Finkelstein]

Just my opinion, but I don't believe ND has a chance to get in unless they are ranked 12 or above. They are like an automatically qualified Conference Champ except they have to be ranked 12 or above.

I may be missing something, but I couldn't develop a scenario where they are ranked 13, 14 or 15 and still get in. If they are ranked 12 or above, we basically have 6 automatic qualifiers and 6 at large.

I certainly don't consider myself any kind of expert on this, strange things seem to develop as far as the CFP is concerned.

Their schedule is so weak next year, their chances really boil down to needing to win at least 1 of 2 games - at BYU and home vs Miami. Even at 11-1 they should not be viewed as a "lock". I say "should not" though they probably get in at 11-1 because of their name. But, who knows anymore?

I know the weekly release of the CFBP rankings is a ratings win for ESPN so it will likely continue. But, when they have a team (ND) ranked in the top 12 week after week and in the final ranking before the selection and then leave them out...well, I shed no tears for ND, but it does seem kinda shady. Makes you wonder if they should not do the weekly rankings release (not going to happen as eyeballs want to see and know) or they keep ND with their soft schedule at #13. Of course, that first of two games I mentioned above next year is Oct. 17 at BYU with Miami a few weeks later Nov. 7. The first release of the CFBP rankings IIRC is perhaps around or just after that game at BYU.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Just a hunch, but I predict every conference champ will have at least one loss. This past year was an anomaly.

 

[stinger78]

Their schedule is so weak next year, their chances really boil down to needing to win at least 1 of 2 games - at BYU and home vs Miami. Even at 11-1 they should not be viewed as a "lock". I say "should not" though they probably get in at 11-1 because of their name. But, who knows anymore?

I know the weekly release of the CFBP rankings is a ratings win for ESPN so it will likely continue. But, when they have a team (ND) ranked in the top 12 week after week and in the final ranking before the selection and then leave them out...well, I shed no tears for ND, but it does seem kinda shady. Makes you wonder if they should not do the weekly rankings release (not going to happen as eyeballs want to see and know) or they keep ND with their soft schedule at #13. Of course, that first of two games I mentioned above next year is Oct. 17 at BYU with Miami a few weeks later Nov. 7. The first release of the CFBP rankings IIRC is perhaps around or just after that game at BYU.

There should be no weekly rankings, just an end of season ranking. The whole SOS thing, which is hard to get right any time, is completely ludicrous before the full cake is baked. Some schedules are front loaded, some are back loaded, and some are evenly distributed. And don’t get me started again on how “preseason rankings” (how can you even do that?) bias the SOS.