New formations..

[vamosjackets]

I kinda disagree with you recruit talent and train to fit the O. At some positions, yes. Hate to bring up SEC, you won't see Bama recruit a scrambling QB, doesn't fit the O.
Lee is a prime example. Sure, he ran the offense and moved the ball but how effective was it? Honestly?

Using your example: Bama runs a "pro-style", power running offense. Certainly not a spread-out passing offense. So, you would say that they shouldn't recruit a QB from a pass-first, spread offense, because he isn't used to their offense ... even if he is the best throwing QB in the nation.

But, Nick Saban and Bama would definitely recruit that QB from the pass-first spread offense because his skill set fits what they want their QB to do. Then they would teach the concepts of their offense to him.

 

[ilovetheoption]

I've previously agreed with you in principle that starting field position can be a factor (I'm not persuaded it's as deciding a factor as your post suggest). However, I've been offering ppd as a simple and fairly direct way of measuring efficiency. I can calculate scrimmage scores, rushing TDs, passing TDs and FGs (as distinguished from special teams and defensive TDs). I can calculate drives by summing failed scrimmaged TDs, FG atts, punts, turnovers and failed 4th downs. I can easily get all of these stats for all D1 teams from cfbstats.com.

Where do you get average starting field position?

Football Outsiders already tracks this stat. The OE is the non-SOS adjusted stat (basically points per possession compared against expected points per possession when factored against field position)

IMO, it's the single best measure of offensive productivity.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2013

For Reference sake, when adjusted for SOS, GT offense has ranked:
2013: 38 (59 raw)
2012: 26 (19 raw)
2011: 16 (8 raw)
2010: 41 (52 raw)
2009: 2 (9 raw)

 

[vamosjackets]

Fair enough..

Serious question.
What was it with Lee? I have read that he didn't run hard, wasn't aggressive etc...
I will admit I didn't watch him much last year.

With Lee's departure after the season and his explanation that he wanted the offense to be more pass-oriented, it appears that he quit believing in the offense. His heart wasn't in it, and thus it affected his performance in running it. He didn't run as hard because that's not what he wanted to be doing.

Many of us still think he could've been a VERY effective QB for us had he stayed with it and his heart been in it.

 

[bravejason]

Fair enough..

Serious question.
What was it with Lee? I have read that he didn't run hard, wasn't aggressive etc...
I will admit I didn't watch him much last year.

I suspect that vamosjacket is right and the issue was that Lee's heart just wasn't in it, for whatever reason.

 

[Techster]

With Lee's departure after the season and his explanation that he wanted the offense to be more pass-oriented, it appears that he quit believing in the offense. His heart wasn't in it, and thus it affected his performance in running it. He didn't run as hard because that's not what he wanted to be doing.

Many of us still think he could've been a VERY effective QB for us had he stayed with it and his heart been in it.

From the interview on 790, it seems Vad pretty much decided his fate after the Duke game. It was one of the better all-around games a CPJ QB has played at GT (8/16 175 yards 4TDs/1INT, 76 yards rushing 1 TD), but afterwards CPJ hammered the team for not running the option well. Now, CPJ a coach, wasn't wrong and we did have some problems with some of our core plays...but that Vad took that message to mean that what happened in the passing game didn't mean much to CPJ. I don't doubt Vad had people in his ear telling him if CPJ can say that after one of the best passing performances for a CPJ QB at GT, then there probably wasn't hope for more passing in the future.

I think Vad would have been spectacular both this year and next year had he stayed around. We saw the growth Tevin had each year in the passing game from the standpoint of understanding our concepts and manipulating the defense, and I don't doubt Vad could have had the same mental progress. Tevin also grew in his understanding of our base offense...as did Josh over the years. Vad was ten times more physically gifted than Tevin...but Tevin stuck it out and grew. Vad decided he would try his hand elsewhere. Let's hope JT and MJ have the career Vad should have had here.

 

[Mack]

The problem with the triple option (IMO) is that hardly anyone is HS runs it. So when you get guys to GT, it is not what they are used to and takes time to learn. I also think the TO is outdated. IF* run correctly, it is unstoppable, but how many seasons will it take to cut your losses and try something else? How many winning teams (NC) run the TO?

Zero..

I think that is the problem, but I don't get paid to be a coach.

I think you are spot on....Nesbitt was not a under center qb at Green County and neither was Vad...they ran from the gun or the spread and did well.JN I will say did do well with his time in the option but again he was a horse who could take the hits time after time.Lee never looked comfortable running the pitch but yes it does take time to get the option offense under control.

 

[Mack]

From the interview on 790, it seems Vad pretty much decided his fate after the Duke game. It was one of the better all-around games a CPJ QB has played at GT (8/16 175 yards 4TDs/1INT, 76 yards rushing 1 TD), but afterwards CPJ hammered the team for not running the option well. Now, CPJ a coach, wasn't wrong and we did have some problems with some of our core plays...but that Vad took that message to mean that what happened in the passing game didn't mean much to CPJ. I don't doubt Vad had people in his ear telling him if CPJ can say that after one of the best passing performances for a CPJ QB at GT, then there probably wasn't hope for more passing in the future.

I think Vad would have been spectacular both this year and next year had he stayed around. We saw the growth Tevin had each year in the passing game from the standpoint of understanding our concepts and manipulating the defense, and I don't doubt Vad could have had the same mental progress. Tevin also grew in his understanding of our base offense...as did Josh over the years. Vad was ten times more physically gifted than Tevin...but Tevin stuck it out and grew. Vad decided he would try his hand elsewhere. Let's hope JT and MJ have the career Vad should have had here.

Of course this is what the Marine Corps called scuttlebutt ,yet my understanding Is PJ told or hinted very hard that he wanted Lee to open up the offense and to me that meant passing.I was surprised to see a lack of balls in the air but again dont have any idea if Vad felt he was not used correctly or if PJ found out later that Vad was not a option qb.

 

[Rock]

Using your example: Bama runs a "pro-style", power running offense. Certainly not a spread-out passing offense. So, you would say that they shouldn't recruit a QB from a pass-first, spread offense, because he isn't used to their offense ... even if he is the best throwing QB in the nation.

But, Nick Saban and Bama would definitely recruit that QB from the pass-first spread offense because his skill set fits what they want their QB to do. Then they would teach the concepts of their offense to him.

I am saying that.
Bama does not primarily recruit QB's that are dual threat... trust me.
They recruit them as ATH and usually they switch to DB or something else.

 

[Rock]

I think you are spot on....Nesbitt was not a under center qb at Green County and neither was Vad...they ran from the gun or the spread and did well.JN I will say did do well with his time in the option but again he was a horse who could take the hits time after time.Lee never looked comfortable running the pitch but yes it does take time to get the option offense under control.

Yep..
I like Auburn's version of the TO too... it is effective.

 

[vamosjackets]

I am saying that.
Bama does not primarily recruit QB's that are dual threat... trust me.
They recruit them as ATH and usually they switch to DB or something else.

You're misunderstanding me. I'm not saying they would recruit a dual-threat QB. I'm saying they would recruit a passing QB who ran a pass-happy spread offense in high school, even though Bama doesn't run the pass-happy spread offense.

... Because they don't care what offense the guy's high school coach ran (the pass-happy, air-raid in my example). They care that the guy is a great throwing QB who can do what they want him to do in their offense, which is hand the ball to the RB 60% of the time and make great throws the other 40% of the time.

 

[Rock]

You're misunderstanding me. I'm not saying they would recruit a dual-threat QB. I'm saying they would recruit a passing QB who ran a pass-happy spread offense in high school, even though Bama doesn't run the pass-happy spread offense.

... Because they don't care what offense the guy's high school coach ran (the pass-happy, air-raid in my example). They care that the guy is a great throwing QB who can do what they want him to do in their offense, which is hand the ball to the RB 60% of the time and make great throws the other 40% of the time.

10-4... I got ya now.

 

[LongforDodd]

Of course this is what the Marine Corps called scuttlebutt ,yet my understanding Is PJ told or hinted very hard that he wanted Lee to open up the offense and to me that meant passing.I was surprised to see a lack of balls in the air but again dont have any idea if Vad felt he was not used correctly or if PJ found out later that Vad was not a option qb.

Vad, unfortuntely had some of the worst blocking last year out of everyone - line, edge, wherever - that never allowed him to feel comfortable at whatever he was asked to do. His head was rarely in the game.

 

[Techster]

Vad, unfortuntely had some of the worst blocking last year out of everyone - line, edge, wherever - that never allowed him to feel comfortable at whatever he was asked to do. His head was rarely in the game.

Not many like to acknowledge the OL play in Vad's (lack of) production last season. That line last year, in my opinion, was the worst OL play I've seen since CPJ has been here. I can't count how many times Vad was caught in the backfield on an option before he could make it to the corner. It goes with CPJ chastising Vad for knowing when to go down and take a loss instead of fighting through it and losing the ball. People forget that CPJ ORDERED Vad to go down if he was caught behind the LOS. In fact, given how bad our OL was, passing plays at least gave Vad the chance make a play with his legs if the receivers weren't open...not sure you could say that Vad had many options on run plays when the defender was in the backfield immediately after the snap.

 

[AE 87]

As in every exercise of drawing knowledge from observations, there's the danger of Observation Bias. For example, those who believe that women are poor drivers will see any error made by a woman driving as evidence in support of this conclusion and every error of a man driving as a knock against that individual. Humans tend to see what they want to see. I say that as preface to my own observations which were that it seemed to me that our pass blocking has never been that good and that blocking for Vad was not noticeably worse than for Tevin or Joshua. Also, it seemed to me that TW suffered from a lot more drops from WRs and Vad from more over thrown or under thrown passes. That's what it seemed like to me, but I don't claim that my observations were more free from bias than those of @Techster or anyone else.

Some stats, fwiw:
VL 2013: 45.6% comp, 8.7 ypa, 50% and 7.8 vs Duke
TW 2012: 56.4% comp, 9.2 ypa, 60% and 10.2 vs Duke
TW 2011: 49.3% comp, 11ypa, 46.2% and 14.2 vs Duke

I would hope that as ypa go down, we'd see completion % go up since shorter passes tend to have a higher completion %. I think that's what we see, to some extent with TW from 2011 to 2012. More shorter passes led to higher completion %. However, with VL, we got both lower completion %, significantly, and lower ypa. I don't see justification for saying that Vad was that much better a passer, even in the Duke game.

GT Sacks Allowed; Passes thrown
2013: 14; 203
2012: 14; 194
2011: 13; 167
2010: 16; 168
2009: 12; 168
2008: 15; 165

I don't know if it's the best measure of pass protection; I thought of looking at it after I typed the passing stats for VL and TW. However, fwiw, our 2013 sack to pass thrown ratio is the lowest in the CPJ era. I guess it's possible that Vad threw more away to avoid sacks, thus also hurting his passing numbers, but I don't know how to find that. It seems unlikely to me that this occurred enough to justify calling our OL protection that much worse this year than previous years.

 

[AE 87]

that help?
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fpa

Thanks. The team with the best average starting field position was Tulane at 66.9 (~the 33) and the worst was UT San Antonio, at 75.4 (~25). We typically started at about the 30. I'm also not entirely sure how to use the starting field position without doing an iteration based on some expectation factor, see @ilovetheoption here:

Football Outsiders already tracks this stat. The OE is the non-SOS adjusted stat (basically points per possession compared against expected points per possession when factored against field position)

IMO, it's the single best measure of offensive productivity.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2013

For Reference sake, when adjusted for SOS, GT offense has ranked:
2013: 38 (59 raw)
2012: 26 (19 raw)
2011: 16 (8 raw)
2010: 41 (52 raw)
2009: 2 (9 raw)

Fwiw, I referred to the footballoutsiders efficiency stats in my response to @dressedcheeseside the last time he responded to my reference to ppd by mentioning starting field position. I agree that their efficiency stats are the best, though complex, measure of offense.

I think that when you look at our 2011, and 2012 offensive efficiency numbers compared to our recruiting rankings, it's hard to deny the value of our base offense.

 

[Eastman]

I believe another factor in Vad's ultimate disillusionment or lack of "buy in" was due to his exceptional athletic ability. Tevin knew he wasn't the most gifted athlete and therefore focused on mastering the offense. He was content to be the Jackets starting QB and lead them. in other words his PERSONAL expectations weren't that lofty. Vad no doubt worked very hard but also knew he was an exceptional athlete and heard constant praise reinforcing his abilities. (The exceptional 2012 UNC game probably set his expectations higher) Reality hit in 2013 when, for many reasons, some not his fault, his level of success was "Tevin-like", no doubt far less than his expectations. To rationalize the results, he could basically blame himself, the team or the system. I think the easy mental choice is to decide that the less than stellar results were because of the system. Once he started to tell himself that it was system was holding him back....the solution is to leave it.
Of course this is my pop psychology and my degree was in math so ....

 

[forensicbuzz]

I kinda disagree with you recruit talent and train to fit the O. At some positions, yes. Hate to bring up SEC, you won't see Bama recruit a scrambling QB, doesn't fit the O.
Lee is a prime example. Sure, he ran the offense and moved the ball but how effective was it? Honestly?

I think if VD had bought into this offense, [lock, stock and barrel], he would have been tremendously effective. I believe his reluctance to fully engage this year was a significant contributor to the efficiency and effectiveness of our offense. He had all the tools he needed to be successful.

 

[BUZZ NATION]

I think TW was a heck of a QB. He played with 100% effort with a 60% talent level. If VL cared about improving every week to be the best QB for Tech we would have been 10-2 (BYU, Miami) . TW practiced year round because he wanted to be the best he could be for Tech. I would hope that we never get a QB like VL again!!!!

 

[Techster]

As in every exercise of drawing knowledge from observations, there's the danger of Observation Bias. For example, those who believe that women are poor drivers will see any error made by a woman driving as evidence in support of this conclusion and every error of a man driving as a knock against that individual. Humans tend to see what they want to see. I say that as preface to my own observations which were that it seemed to me that our pass blocking has never been that good and that blocking for Vad was not noticeably worse than for Tevin or Joshua. Also, it seemed to me that TW suffered from a lot more drops from WRs and Vad from more over thrown or under thrown passes. That's what it seemed like to me, but I don't claim that my observations were more free from bias than those of @Techster or anyone else.

Some stats, fwiw:
VL 2013: 45.6% comp, 8.7 ypa, 50% and 7.8 vs Duke
TW 2012: 56.4% comp, 9.2 ypa, 60% and 10.2 vs Duke
TW 2011: 49.3% comp, 11ypa, 46.2% and 14.2 vs Duke

I would hope that as ypa go down, we'd see completion % go up since shorter passes tend to have a higher completion %. I think that's what we see, to some extent with TW from 2011 to 2012. More shorter passes led to higher completion %. However, with VL, we got both lower completion %, significantly, and lower ypa. I don't see justification for saying that Vad was that much better a passer, even in the Duke game.

GT Sacks Allowed; Passes thrown
2013: 14; 203
2012: 14; 194
2011: 13; 167
2010: 16; 168
2009: 12; 168
2008: 15; 165

I don't know if it's the best measure of pass protection; I thought of looking at it after I typed the passing stats for VL and TW. However, fwiw, our 2013 sack to pass thrown ratio is the lowest in the CPJ era. I guess it's possible that Vad threw more away to avoid sacks, thus also hurting his passing numbers, but I don't know how to find that. It seems unlikely to me that this occurred enough to justify calling our OL protection that much worse this year than previous years.

Your observation has some flaws.

1. Vad was a full time starter in 2013 as a redshirt sophomore. Tevin's best season from a completion standpoint came as a 5th year Senior. Tevin had the benefit of also starting half a season (due to Nesbitt's injury) before he become a "full" starter in 2011. Vad played a decent amount of snaps in 2012, but not the amount that Tevin did. From a development standpoint, Vad was probably ahead of where CPJ's historical first time starters were.

2. A good portion of your argument is predicated on comparing two QBs against one opponent: Duke. My discussion point was that Duke was the turning point for Vad's decision to transfer. You're not talking about the same thing I am. BTW...VAd accounted for 5TDs during that game. When was the last time a CPJ QB passed for 4 TDs during a game? Thanks for leaving out some important components of a statistical analysis. (Tevin passed for 3 TDs and rushed for 1 in 2012)

3. Duke 2013 is a vastly superior team to the Duke of 2012 and 2011. Duke 2013 went to the ACC Championship Game and almost beat TX A&M in the Chikfila Bowl.

The OL's terrible performance in 2013 wasn't only prominent in our passing game, but also our rushing game...especially our rushing game. That's the gist...our OL was performing at such a bad level that it wasn't mainly Vad that caused CPJ to go away from certain plays, but the OL dictated it as well. CPJ has flat out said it in multiple interviews.

Anyhow, the point of my point (ahem) is that people like to use Vad as a scapegoat, but our offensive troubles were deeper than a QB not "fully buying into the offense" as so many people like to throw out there. Afterall, it was Vad's arm that was a big reason we were able to get up 20 points on UGA, it was his arm that made the throw to Smelter (and a great catch from Smelter) that help us seal the win against Pitt, it was Vad arm that help us race out to a big lead against Miami. For all the times we like to think Vad didn't run hard enough, there were quite a few times Vad's abilities also helped us out. Remember, last year was Vad's first year starting on this level. Joe Hamilton even struggled as a first year starter in an offense that was more pass oriented.

 

[daBuzz]

I think TW was a heck of a QB. He played with 100% effort with a 60% talent level. If VL cared about improving every week to be the best QB for Tech we would have been 10-2 (BYU, Miami) . TW practiced year round because he wanted to be the best he could be for Tech. I would hope that we never get a QB like VL again!!!!

Not picking on you specifically, but can you guys all please stop with the "Vad didn't buy into the offense" mantra?

Full disclosure: I have not spoken with Vad Lee personally. I don't know the kid and I'm not one of the stalker types, so I'm not going to befriend him on social media and ask him. So I don't have a way (or desire for that matter) to speak to the kid and ask his side of the story.

But I do happen to be friends with one of the assistant coaches on the team and I asked him about the whole Vad Lee situation and what happened. And I specifically asked him if he thought that Vad was playing soft due to a lack of "buying in" to the system. Here's what he said or WTTE:

"Hell no. As long as Vad was here, he was a vocal leader. A motivational guy. He worked harder on the field in practice than everyone else and tried to set an example. He busted his butt in the weight room and in film study. He was all we asked for as a QB. I personally think he just got hit so much back there because our line play was so atrocious that it got to the point he was mentally having a hard time fighting for that extra yard because he was taking a bunch of shots."

So then I asked, "well then why did he transfer"?

Answer: "He felt like he had a better shot at getting drafted to play professional football somewhere else. He told us that he thought we would open up the offense to throw the ball more and he didn't feel like we had done that or would do that. So he decided to go somewhere else so that he can get what he considers to be a better shot at getting drafted."

FWIW, he also doesn't think Vad plays his senior year at James Madison. He thinks Vad transfers to a D1 school to play his senior year but it will depend on how successful he is this year at JMU.