NCAAT Bubble and Looking to Next Year

[CuseJacket]

For the umpteenth season in the row, "The bubble is weak." I swear, this is said every year.

Maybe experts and fans need an expectations adjustment. Regardless, since the field of 68 started, the bubble has been, shall we say, "reasonably attainable" if you don't screw up too much and knock off a couple ranked teams.

This year we screwed up too much (Gardner-Webb, Georgia, ND, and mind-blowing offensive ineptness in some expected losses). We also haven't beaten a team receiving votes, let alone a ranked team.

Looking to next year, we'll have an older team. We lose Alston and Gueye for sure. It's possible we lose a guy or two with remaining eligibility that aren't currently getting minutes. We add Jordan Usher and maybe (fingers crossed) another impactful transfer or recruit.

So, three questions:
1) What do you see as the profile of a team that is bubble-worthy?
2) How likely is it that we'll get there next year?
3) What changes are necessary for us to get there next year?

 

[SteamWhistle]

With Sjolund and Moses’s play recently I’m not as worried about losing AD as I was earlier in the year. I think CER can help out KS low post offense and defense and he is our best 3pt Shooter IMO. Next year for us to make the tournament Devoe and Jose have to be able to play Good in the same games. For some reason whenever Jose has a good game it seems like Devoe struggles and vise versa. Jester should be an Upgrade from Alston and I’m hoping CJP wakes up and realize Moore is the answer not Haywood. There’s so many different lineups we could go with next year because of Moses being versatile and hopefully he will continue to add range and be able to knock down 3s with some what consistency. Next years team is really starting to remind me of the 2011 Shump, Glenn Rice Jr., Brian Oliver, Mo Miller, Udofia team with a lot of good guard play. Jester should get us over the hump at Forward I’m hoping he is a good defender.

 

[GTJake]

For next year, besides the obvious that has been beaten like a dead horse (shooting, go-to guy, better production in the paint), hopefully we can find some consistency and have an upward overall trajectory ... this year they give you hope one game and then the next game(s) your left dumbfounded.

 

[GT_EE78]

1) What do you see as the profile of a team that is bubble-worthy?
2) How likely is it that we'll get there next year?
3) What changes are necessary for us to get there next year?

1) Clemson,Syracuse , NC State
2) None if we continue clogging the roster with 3star projects who have limited likelihood of ever becoming average quality acc starters.
3) a fifth starter. recycling through the same roster to find who is least bad this week , will generate about the same results next year. A grad transfer who shoots 43% from three (that's after he gets here not before) might give us a 50% chance optimistically. If another spot opens up then a 4/5 star big needs to magically appear who can be ready by acc play to give us some quality rotation minutes at the 4 & 5.

 

[mstranahan]

Believe we get 11 OOC games due to expanded ACC slate. We know two opponents for sure (Arkansas & UGA). We also get three games in Hawaii course of the fine folks at Hawaiian Airlines. Possible that we will get a B1G opponent, but not probable. I assume we will load up the rest of OOC schedule with the usual fodder (Gardner Webb, Furman, USC Upstate, etc)

Expanded ACC schedule looks like this
10 home (Clemson, Notre Dame, Louisville, NCSU, Pitt, Syracuse, Duke, Miami, UVA, VPI)
10 away (Clemson, Notre Dame, Louisville, NCSU, Pitt, Syracuse, UNC, FSU, BC, Wake)

In order to be in serious NCAAT bubble discussion, I think we have to win 10 OOC games and at least 8 ACC games. That would mean minimum of 18-13 going into ACCT. Anything less than that means NIT, I believe. Winning a game or two in the ACCT would help, obviously, as would wins over highly rated teams in the conference. (I think we can go 5-5 or 6-4 at home in conference and 5-5 on the road is doable with our schedule)

 

[GTJake]

... as for next year's NCAAT chances, maybe I'm wrong and will see vast improvement from some of the young guys but I just don't think the talent level is there yet and until CJP starts winning some recruiting battles I don't have much confidence.

 

[ESPNjacket]

The bubble is weak mostly because of the Pac-12. As a Big 6 conference it should have 5 or 6 legitimate tournament candidates at a minimum each year. Those extra 4 or so slots essentially move the top 4 bubble teams into the tournament. Add in a weak Mountain West and no depth in the American and it is more like the top 6-8 bubble teams are in, hence the soft bubble.

Regarding GT, the returning team's core of Alvarado, Devoe, Banks, and Usher with another year of experience looks like the core of a bubble team. Most of them having played together this year is a positive as well. Among the projects, we need at least two to step up to an average ACC 5th or 6th man level. I'd put the odds of this happening at about 25%. I'd like to put it higher but here are the things that need to improve for it to happen:

- A coherent offensive approach. The staff should know the players well enough next year to figure out what they can and can't do. Fiddling with different approaches during the season doesn't work at this level very well.

- If we stay a primarily zone defensive team, rebounding is going to remain a problem. In order to minimize that problem we must take better care of the ball. See above.

- No bad losses in the early games. A team with as much experience returning should not have a mid-major home game loss.

 

[tsrich]

The increase to 20 conference games hurts our chances. We've seldom come close to .500 in the conference, much less exceeded it. We would have been better off with the 18 game schedule and picking up (hopefully) 2 more mid-tier wins.

Unless we have some fantastic wins and great schedule strn, I think we'll need to win 10 OOC and have 9 conference wins. That gets us to the bubble. Then we'll need some wins in the tournament to make it in.

 

[vadimivich]

The number of wins OOC isn't really what matters, it's who those wins are over. We would need to get one noteworthy win in Hawaii and then at least 1 more quality win before conference play starts (maybe Arky or UGa will be good?). 10 wins against our recent garbage OOC filler won't matter at all. Just empty calories.

 

[AUFC]

Jose is there. Michael is there. James is there.

We'll need Usher to turn out best case scenario and at least 2 underclassmen to make the leap to ACC level in order to see the bubble next year.

 

[Peacone36]

The number of wins OOC isn't really what matters, it's who those wins are over. We would need to get one noteworthy win in Hawaii and then at least 1 more quality win before conference play starts (maybe Arky or UGa will be good?). 10 wins against our recent garbage OOC filler won't matter at all. Just empty calories.

Unless they are double digit wins, which will help our NET rankings ala NC State this year

 

[tbglover]

With Sjolund and Moses’s play recently I’m not as worried about losing AD as I was earlier in the year. I think CER can help out KS low post offense and defense and he is our best 3pt Shooter IMO. Next year for us to make the tournament Devoe and Jose have to be able to play Good in the same games. For some reason whenever Jose has a good game it seems like Devoe struggles and vise versa. Jester should be an Upgrade from Alston and I’m hoping CJP wakes up and realize Moore is the answer not Haywood. There’s so many different lineups we could go with next year because of Moses being versatile and hopefully he will continue to add range and be able to knock down 3s with some what consistency. Next years team is really starting to remind me of the 2011 Shump, Glenn Rice Jr., Brian Oliver, Mo Miller, Udofia team with a lot of good guard play. Jester should get us over the hump at Forward I’m hoping he is a good defender.

Sjoland is going to need to add a good amount of strength to be much help in the low post on either end besides as a help defender. Banks is also going to have to add strength and he needs to follow AD's lead as far as battling for low post position. Right now he seems afraid to get physical and establish himself to get available inside. I agree about Jose and Devoe. I like how Devoe has gotten better over the course of the season in knowing how to get penetration. Hopefully we can consistent backup play at the 5 and then Sjoland, Usher and Moore can get the bulk of the frontcourt minutes. The length could really help with the zone and if Moses can play with poise that becomes an even bigger strength. Team has to play smarter which should come with experience and with it Pastner has to be more confident with his lineups.

As for making the tourney the team needs to at least split with at least 4 or 5 of the 6 home and away opponents. If they can then win at Wake they'll be in pretty good shape. May they make the most of their summer trip.

 

[LargeFO]

Banks is maddening near the rim. Hopefully by next year he will have learned to go straight up and with intent.

 

[alagold]

To get the tourney next yr a HUGE amount of things have to happen.
1.The core of Jose,Devoe and Banks have to improve in their weaknesses and meld..
2.We need to get a good grad transfer big to sub JB or offer 3pt help..
3. Usher needs to be everything we hope.
4. no injuries
5.One of the "other" guys needs to take a BIG step.
Simple, huh?

 

[GTHomer]

5.One of the "other" guys needs to take a BIG step.

Call me naive but I think Moses will surprise a lot of people next year. I like they way he has looked in the post in recent games. His defense is always there, he just needs to get under control on the offensive side.

With another offseason of workouts, I believe we will have a good rotation between the 3-5 with Moses, Cole, Moore, and Sjolund. If Haywood can shoot over 35% from the 3, he provides a great option between the 2-3.

A lotta ifs, but I think it is possible...

 

[Peacone36]

Call me naive but I think Moses will surprise a lot of people next year. I like they way he has looked in the post in recent games. His defense is always there, he just needs to get under control on the offensive side.

With another offseason of workouts, I believe we will have a good rotation between the 3-5 with Moses, Cole, Moore, and Sjolund. If Haywood can shoot over 35% from the 3, he provides a great option between the 2-3.

A lotta ifs, but I think it is possible...

I don’t see what some of you guys see with Moses’s defense. His rotations are slow and he puts others in bad positions. He might block a shot every now and again but he also might contribute to your pivot being in foul trouble.

I’d much rather see Moore or Sjolund

 

[gte447f]

I agree with peacone about Moses’ defense. He overplays the high side of the wing zone and is slow to recover.

 

[GT_EE78]

To get the tourney next yr a HUGE amount of things have to happen.
1.The core of Jose,Devoe and Banks have to improve in their weaknesses and meld..
2.We need to get a good grad transfer big to sub JB or offer 3pt help..
3. Usher needs to be everything we hope.
4. no injuries
5.One of the "other" guys needs to take a BIG step.
Simple, huh?

Sooo, you mean we may as well wish in one hand and crap in the other? (without a recruit surprise)

 

[YlJacket]

I hate to say it but I agree with Alagold that there are a ton of things that have to go right next year. I was not expecting a this year to be a great year record wise, but I was hoping/expecting that we would answer a lot of longer term questions and importantly be improving/establishing roles toward the end of the year. I thought this year was going to be the last year we had multiple major questions to answer / holes to fill but we are back in the same spot for next year.

Top of the list, we are now counting on another new transfer - Usher - to hold down a starting slot as no one has emerged. We also have the coach talking extensively about having to look for at least one and possibly 2 "bucket getters" in the spring period. The roster is unsettled.

The core of Jose, Devoe and Banks has each shown flashes individually but there has been no consistency in the group. And more importantly no real cohesion in their approach. They also as a group have to get back in the weight room and get stronger. It is a team wide issue.

We are going to be "old" at most positions next year. Jrs and Srs except for Devoe. Time for the experience level to show. They are not building to the end of the year as I hoped they would.

We are utilizing all 13 slots with the majority now being considered projects. This coaching staff has to turn into incredible development coaches in the offseason. Whether that is strength/conditioning, rewiring some brains with damaged confidence, improving shooting and footwork or looking really hard at what our schemes are and whether they fit our talent/skills. Results to date are mixed at best.

I am really jaded the way we are finishing this season. No roles, no rhythm, no consistency. Hard to believe we are going to turn around all the questions we have facing us in the offseason.

 

[alagold]

YLJ,
Good synopsis.
Also not what I hoped for.We are not finishing strong (Banks ONE pt in 30 min at uM, wow) although we could surprise someone I guess...Wake just beat somebody decent and ND took fsu to end there while we were beaten like a rented mule.
Hitting the weight room is obvious.From the start we looked light at almost every position.Alston looked Iike a grown man but that didn't get us much.
But really maybe got as much as possible out talent/exp here.