NCAA Tournament & COVID-19

[RamblinRed]

I’m guessing that Harvard doesn’t dip into the principal of the endowment, and uses the yearly growth and dividends, but that’s simplistic. Six months ago, the S&P 500 was at ~3000, and now it’s back up between 2700-2800. It seems like their endowment would be pinched somewhat (and the article says it shrank), but maybe the bigger story is that they still have to maintain the facilities, plus they have to support more eLearning and other increased expenses, plus corporate grants and research dollars aren’t coming in.
The article mentions new expenses rising and other financial channels shrinking, but doesn’t say much about either.
I’ve seen corporations lock down and postpone expenses that can be postponed, and that might be hitting Harvard harder than not getting dorm fees and student dining.
For athletic departments, I’m not sure how much big donors are affected, but I’m sure recent graduates are watching their pennies and dimes more than ever, and the middle donors are watching their jobs and companies to make sure they can make it through. I was glad to see Stansbury say we were still on track for AI 2020, but you’d think that donations are getting pinched a lot, in addition to ticket sales.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I did read an article a few days ago about this. From an AA standpoint (this is not GT specific), they are losing revenue due to lower ticket sales, lower donations, and they expect they will lose revenue even with games as they expect fewer people to attend games if they have them and spend less money at them.

I'll freely admit I didn't take this virus seriously enough at the beginning. I remember talking to colleagues at lunch back in Jan and we just brushed it off, didn't think it would be a big deal. And that was even though one colleauge has a Chinese wife who was saying her relatives in China were telling her that the reality was alot worse than the Chinese were reporting and another colleague has a wife who works at the CDC and she was scared about what would happen in the US if it wasn't contained early - even by mid-January the researchers at the CDC were working really long hours trying to figure this one out. It wasn't until it hit Italy that I started to take it seriously and frankly at that point it was already probably too late for the US as it was already circulating in the US by then just waiting to explode on us. And just like most, it was Conference Tournament week that it finally hit home that the US was in a serious bad place.

My opinion is this could end up being a bigger jolt to the economy than the financial crisis of 2008. That was a man-made financial disaster caused by Financial companies (I work for a financial services company, but not one of the Wall Street ones that were engaging in the derivatives game) being greedy and dishonest. This is a natural, world-wide disaster that is going to be alot harder to fix than the financial shenanigans of 2008. At first I thought this would be a minor economic blip, but I no longer believe that. All the data I see now suggests this is going to be a really hard, sustained recession even with everything the Federal Government and the Fed have done to try to prop things up. We're not going to get anywhere close to 100% economic activity in the country for the rest of this year. Frankly imo we won't get close to 100% until we have a combination of both medical therapies and a vaccine. This one is worse because people are not just scared about their jobs, they are scared about their health -that is very different than 2008 and leads to different behaviors.

One economist said if we open up the economy right now it will fail. His take is right now people are scared about being in any size groups with other people, whether that be in a store or at work. Recent polls suggest the majority of citizens right now would rather sit at home and deal with lost wages than go into an office and possibly contract a disease that they worry could kill them or their family.

 

[684Bee]

One economist said if we open up the economy right now it will fail. His take is right now people are scared about being in any size groups with other people, whether that be in a store or at work. Recent polls suggest the majority of citizens right now would rather sit at home and deal with lost wages than go into an office and possibly contract a disease that they worry could kill them or their family.

This is certainly the case with a lot of people, and my point has been that a lot of the fear is overblown. I have compassion and understanding towards people that feel this way, but I just disagree about the threat that it poses to people other than the elderly with underlying issues and those with serious obesity or hypertension. Yes, you can get sick and feel very bad, no doubt, but the fear of this killing you should not be so prevalent for the people not in the groups I just listed. I'm choosing to focus on the positives, which is WAY more people have had mild cases or cases they recovered from (also without ever going to the hospital) than people have died. That is my belief, so, with that, I'm trying hard to understand why we all need to continue to be holed up in our homes?

 

[kg01]

I, for example, have two kids under 3 at home. My other kids have asthma. Even though I could probably be fine if I got sick, I'm terrified to take the chance that they'd be ok if I accidentally gave it to them.

 

[684Bee]

I, for example, have two kids under 3 at home. My other kids have asthma. Even though I could probably be fine if I got sick, I'm terrified to take the chance that they'd be ok if I accidentally gave it to them.

I think you are smart to do everything you can to protect your children, especially if they have a condition that would exacerbate things if they got it. I would do the same.

I've still been working (as best I can...things have slowed way down), and I've been keeping my distance from others and washing and sanitizing my hands like a madman. I don't want to get it, and I certainly don't want to spread it to my wife and daughter.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, this is a really good article on actions that 4 countries that have done a good job of controlling the outbreaks in their country and what they did.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html
This was written by individuals based in London so it has a European focus but it applies everywhere. It focuses on Taiwan, Iceland, South Korea, and Germany (where there are alot of cases but a small death toll per capita - though that might be changing).

The biggest takeaways are this
1. You have to be aggressive before it gets bad (unfortunately we are way too late for that). You have to have a plan and implement it before your cases skyrocket.
2. You have to test like madmen. Test and trace.
3. You have to quarantine (not just self quaratine, we are talking about monitoring) anyone who tests positive. You must quarantine people who are traveling.
4. When you do start to ease up on restrictions you have to test even more.

FWIW, the article has 12 lessions.

 

[griffin mizell]

If you wait until you are in the hospital it is to late for HCQ to have its best effect

 

[lauraee]

Not enough studies to come to your conclusions sir. It helped my friend....which is one person saved .

Could be a coincidence that he turned the corner while taking it. Might have had the same outcome without the drug.

 

[RamblinRed]

If you wait until you are in the hospital it is to late for HCQ to have its best effect

There are only a couple of issues with this.
First, there is no data that supports taking it early helps so this is just an argument that has no validity behind it right now(the French trial all patients started within 48 hours of arriving at the hospitals).
Second, the doses being administered are significantly higher than the doses that Lupus or RA patients take (up to 50% higher). The COVID19 patients are being given almost Toxic levels of the drug (literally being off in dose by 1-2 mg could kill a patient). So it is not something you could just take and frankly no legit doctor is going to prescribe a potentially toxic drug level to someone who isn't in serious distress.

 

[griffin mizell]

did not know you prescribed.what are yuor dosage recs?

 

[RamblinRed]

did not know you prescribed.what are yuor dosage recs?

I don't prescribe i'm not a doctor. But i've read what the prescription doses are for Lupus and RA and what the dosage for the COVID19 patients are.

 

[MWBATL]

FWIW, this is a really good article on actions that 4 countries that have done a good job of controlling the outbreaks in their country and what they did.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html
This was written by individuals based in London so it has a European focus but it applies everywhere. It focuses on Taiwan, Iceland, South Korea, and Germany (where there are alot of cases but a small death toll per capita - though that might be changing).

The biggest takeaways are this
1. You have to be aggressive before it gets bad (unfortunately we are way too late for that). You have to have a plan and implement it before your cases skyrocket.
2. You have to test like madmen. Test and trace.
3. You have to quarantine (not just self quaratine, we are talking about monitoring) anyone who tests positive. You must quarantine people who are traveling.
4. When you do start to ease up on restrictions you have to test even more.

FWIW, the article has 12 lessions.

I am finally getting a chance to read some of that article (I have not finished it as yet), but the first thing is noticed are:

1. Taiwan did NOT close implement a lockdown. Ever. They only implemented social distancing on April 1st. Their travel ban to and from Wuhan was only implemented 1-2 days earlier than the US travel ban (the article wasn't explicitly clear on Taiwan's date)
2. At first glance, it appears that what Taiwan did well was contact tracing and quarantining.

So, I am not quite getting what your point #1 is referring to, unless you mean the contact tracing and quarantining process. I would agree their response was impressive. I think the single biggest difference was that Taiwan chose not to believe what China was telling the world, while US Medical experts did believe the WHO and China. As a result, Taiwan initiated agressive contact tracing right away, while the US tried that approach, but failed.

What I found fascinating was that much of the argument today appears to be over social distancing and lockdown rules, which Taiwan never bothered with. It does rather undermine the idea that we need to lockdown until we have a vaccine in place. It does argue for much more aggressive quarantining approach for those who are infected.

I need to read the rest of the article, perhaps there is more in there, but I did find it fascinating that the lockdown approach was NOT what saved them....

 

[griffin mizell]

dose for malaria and covid are the same according to my colleagues.RA and lupus are lower dose and long term.

 

[orientalnc]

I am finally getting a chance to read some of that article (I have not finished it as yet), but the first thing is noticed are:

1. Taiwan did NOT close implement a lockdown. Ever. They only implemented social distancing on April 1st. Their travel ban to and from Wuhan was only implemented 1-2 days earlier than the US travel ban (the article wasn't explicitly clear on Taiwan's date)
2. At first glance, it appears that what Taiwan did well was contact tracing and quarantining.

So, I am not quite getting what your point #1 is referring to, unless you mean the contact tracing and quarantining process. I would agree their response was impressive. I think the single biggest difference was that Taiwan chose not to believe what China was telling the world, while US Medical experts did believe the WHO and China. As a result, Taiwan initiated agressive contact tracing right away, while the US tried that approach, but failed.

What I found fascinating was that much of the argument today appears to be over social distancing and lockdown rules, which Taiwan never bothered with. It does rather undermine the idea that we need to lockdown until we have a vaccine in place. It does argue for much more aggressive quarantining approach for those who are infected.

I need to read the rest of the article, perhaps there is more in there, but I did find it fascinating that the lockdown approach was NOT what saved them....

Because they jumped on this vigorously almost as soon as it began, the Taiwanese never experience community transmission. Everywhere there has been community transmission, the stay at home rules have been applied at some level.

 

[lauraee]

Because they jumped on this vigorously almost as soon as it began, the Taiwanese never experience community transmission. Everywhere there has been community transmission, the stay at home rules have been applied at some level.

Well since our testing & contact testing has been fairly nonexistent now we're stuck with this shut down. Too bad we didn't follow Taiwan's lead. Our goverment's response to this epidemic has been so underwhelming and inefficient.

 

[MWBATL]

Well since our testing & contact testing has been fairly nonexistent now we're stuck with this shut down. Too bad we didn't follow Taiwan's lead. Our goverment's response to this epidemic has been so underwhelming and inefficient.

I think that has some truth to it, but I don't really blame the government, whether it is Trump or DiBlasio or Fauci (none of whom said or jumped on this like Taiwan did). I blame the WHO and China for lying about it...had we understood it better form the beginning, we might have reacted differently. Taiwan either has tons more reasons to ignore their cousins across the Strait, or they knew stuff we did not know....(or both)

 

[orientalnc]

I think that has some truth to it, but I don't really blame the government, whether it is Trump or DiBlasio or Fauci (none of whom said or jumped on this like Taiwan did). I blame the WHO and China for lying about it...had we understood it better form the beginning, we might have reacted differently. Taiwan either has tons more reasons to ignore their cousins across the Strait, or they knew stuff we did not know....(or both)

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...onavirus-on-jan-5-who-says-in-response-to-u-s

 

[CuseJacket]

I'm going to lock this thread given we're no longer talking about NCAAT implications and re-point the discussion to the Coronavirus discussion in the lounge https://gtswarm.com/threads/coronavirus-thread.21189/unread