NCAA Tournament & COVID-19

[MWBATL]

Well, it is a bit more complicated than that. For most pathogens, there is the element of 'herd immunity'. We have acquired a degree of resistance through years of exposure. And, even if the vaccines for the flu are imperfect in some years, they will still lessen the severity of the disease. Essentially, this virus is new. It just jumped species. So far, there are no vaccines, and 'herd immunity' is a ways away. Matters are further complicated by the fact that it is twice as contagious as the typical strain of influenza, and it has a much, much higher mortality rate. The threat is very real. Social distancing is flattening the curve, but it would be a mistake to believe that a 'return to normalcy' will take place overnight.

The other aspect is whether there will be treatments developed in the interim, before a vaccine is available. I think I heard that there are now 59 sanctioned tests begin run of different drug combinations. One would hope that we would get some successful treatment out of all that testing.

Successful treatment would not prevent you from getting the virus, but would mitigate its effects enormously, hence making it far less deadly. How effective the treatment is will determine how quickly we can lift social sanctions, imho.

 

[73CAV]

Didn’t say overnight. Nice straw man.

You don’t know, nor does anyone, that it has a much, much higher mortality rate. Won’t be known for a while.

You say it is twice as contagious, but that we are a ways away from herd immunity. This is also impossible to know. We could be closer than you think already, if it is, in fact, as contagious as most think.

The major unknown is the denominator, how many total cases.

Sorry. I inferred from your post (and the one to which you were responding) that you were suggesting that things might be back to normal by autumn (football season), and if that were to happen, to my way of thinking, it would amount to being 'overnight'.

 

[MWBATL]

Sorry. I inferred from your post (and the one to which you were responding) that you were suggesting that things might be back to normal by autumn (football season), and if that were to happen, to my way of thinking, it would amount to being 'overnight'.

I'm waiting for Vegas to post the odds.....

 

[RamblinRed]

This is a nice article on the countries in Europe that are getting close to re-opening.
Some good information on what that means in each of those countries.
A couple of points. First, all of these countries attacked this very early and were able to get it under control quickly before it spiraled out. So very different than Italy, Spain, France, UK, US.
Next, re-opening probably doesn't mean what alot of people think. This is very controlled, very cautious opening. Not going full throttle. Denmark is keeping all cinemas, shopping centers, and church services closed. Large gatherings still banned until at least August.
Austria is requiring masks to be worn.
in Czech Republic, some stores are allowed to re-open but not alot of them.
The key is everything is being done slowly and carefully so if they start to see spikes they can hopefully isolate quickly and hold things in check.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html

We will have something similar for most places in the US. it is known that there are Fed Government committees trying to figure out what metrics areas have to meet in order to start re-opening. And once an area meets those metrics it probably doesn't mean everyone goes back to work. it means there will likely be a controlled re-opening where certain industries are given preferential slotting to re-open. i'd also expect that if you have a job where you can work from home, you will likely be asked to continue to do that. I wouldn't expect large scale gatherings to be allowed for months yet. CA is talking as if they aren't going to allow large scale gatherings until at least Thanksgiving.
Also, in order to start re-opening you are likely going to have to show you have a plan for managing the virus and any outbreaks.
I expect that some areas will require businesses to maintain social distancing rules.

I expect to start to see sporadic opening in early May but it will be weeks after that before we likely see any significant ramp up. One metric talked about is that an area/state etc. is going to have to show 14 straight days of declining numbers before being allowed to start to open. Alot of places aren't going to hit that for some time.

 

[MWBATL]

This is a nice article on the countries in Europe that are getting close to re-opening.
Some good information on what that means in each of those countries.
A couple of points. First, all of these countries attacked this very early and were able to get it under control quickly before it spiraled out. So very different than Italy, Spain, France, UK, US.
Next, re-opening probably doesn't mean what alot of people think. This is very controlled, very cautious opening. Not going full throttle. Denmark is keeping all cinemas, shopping centers, and church services closed. Large gatherings still banned until at least August.
Austria is requiring masks to be worn.
in Czech Republic, some stores are allowed to re-open but not alot of them.
The key is everything is being done slowly and carefully so if they start to see spikes they can hopefully isolate quickly and hold things in check.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html

We will have something similar for most places in the US. it is known that there are Fed Government committees trying to figure out what metrics areas have to meet in order to start re-opening. And once an area meets those metrics it probably doesn't mean everyone goes back to work. it means there will likely be a controlled re-opening where certain industries are given preferential slotting to re-open. i'd also expect that if you have a job where you can work from home, you will likely be asked to continue to do that. I wouldn't expect large scale gatherings to be allowed for months yet. CA is talking as if they aren't going to allow large scale gatherings until at least Thanksgiving.
Also, in order to start re-opening you are likely going to have to show you have a plan for managing the virus and any outbreaks.
I expect that some areas will require businesses to maintain social distancing rules.

I expect to start to see sporadic opening in early May but it will be weeks after that before we likely see any significant ramp up. One metric talked about is that an area/state etc. is going to have to show 14 straight days of declining numbers before being allowed to start to open. Alot of places aren't going to hit that for some time.

I generally agree with this. Not only that it is the way it will happen, but that it is also (mostly) the right way to approach the process. The trick will be to have balance, especially as our medical defenses get better and better to combat this virus. There are many positives to getting back to "normal" and we should not forget the costs associated with continued lockdowns.

I don't believe it is correct to think in terms of Thanksgiving for large scale gatherings...my own opinion is that is taking caution much too far.

 

[orientalnc]

I generally agree with this. Not only that it is the way it will happen, but that it is also (mostly) the right way to approach the process. The trick will be to have balance, especially as our medical defenses get better and better to combat this virus. There are many positives to getting back to "normal" and we should not forget the costs associated with continued lockdowns.

I don't believe it is correct to think in terms of Thanksgiving for large scale gatherings...my own opinion is that is taking caution much too far.

I think we will be under very restrictive policies until there is a vaccine widely available. Here is a sobering video talking about what has to happen before the vaccine is ready and how much protection people might have once they recover from covid-19.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/how-close-are-we-to-a-covid-19-vaccine/

 

[gdamian]

I don't believe it is correct to think in terms of Thanksgiving for large scale gatherings...my own opinion is that is taking caution much too far.

I hate to even suggest this, but the bad guys already know it... The risk of terrorism due to mass gatherings related to COVID-19 is high given how simple it would be to infect large numbers of people at mass gatherings prior to vaccinations or herd immunity. How many people could be intentionally infected at just 14 NFL football games and 20 of the largest college football games?

You don't even need terrorists. The nature of the virus, is enough. People don't know that they are infectious. If there were massive testing (everyone once a week) and quarantine/tracing that would be one thing, but this is obviously not going to happen.

I think the calculus is pretty simple. Without immunity or at the bare minimum a viable, available treatment, no large events are likely to occur.

 

[RamblinRed]

I don't know how quick it will be, but it is likely to be slow and with forward and backward steps.

On of the largest pork processing plants in the US (in SD) has been shut down indefinitely due to a COVID breakout (so far 293 employees have tested positive). Third meat processing plant in the US to shut down in the last week. That is what is going to be the hard part and why the testing is going to be so important. All it takes is one person to slip through and all of a sudden you have to shut down a whole plant (or a whole business) for at least 2-3 weeks, possibly longer.

The model that the greater DC is using (MD, DC, N. VA) has them with their peak hospitalization needs not happening until June.
VA has already shut down through June 10th. Alot of the NE states have extended their stay at home through at least Mid-May and CA doesn't seem to have any current plans to start opening up soon. I don't expect GA to open in early May. Hopefully by Memorial Day though.

I expect it to be sort of stop and go.

 

[73CAV]

I don't know how quick it will be, but it is likely to be slow and with forward and backward steps.

On of the largest pork processing plants in the US (in SD) has been shut down indefinitely due to a COVID breakout (so far 293 employees have tested positive). Third meat processing plant in the US to shut down in the last week. That is what is going to be the hard part and why the testing is going to be so important. All it takes is one person to slip through and all of a sudden you have to shut down a whole plant (or a whole business) for at least 2-3 weeks, possibly longer.

The model that the greater DC is using (MD, DC, N. VA) has them with their peak hospitalization needs not happening until June.
VA has already shut down through June 10th. Alot of the NE states have extended their stay at home through at least Mid-May and CA doesn't seem to have any current plans to start opening up soon. I don't expect GA to open in early May. Hopefully by Memorial Day though. I
I expect it to be sort of stop and go.

A friend on the VCU faculty provided me with this link. It's from the University of Washington. If you click on the box 'United States of America', you will get a drop down menu for other countries as well as all the states. Also, if you click on any point of the curves in the graphs, you will get that day's data, real or projected.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

[RamblinRed]

A friend on the VCU faculty provided me with this link. It's from the University of Washington. If you click on the box 'United States of America', you will get a drop down menu for other countries as well as all the states. Also, if you click on any point of the curves in the graphs, you will get that day's data, real or projected.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I go to that regularly, that is the IHME model.
It gets a ton of press because it is the only model provided to the government that has been made public. Fed Government reportedly has about a dozen different models they are looking at.

 

[orientalnc]

A friend on the VCU faculty provided me with this link. It's from the University of Washington. If you click on the box 'United States of America', you will get a drop down menu for other countries as well as all the states. Also, if you click on any point of the curves in the graphs, you will get that day's data, real or projected.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Here is a very important caveat that is stated on their website:

"COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, this is a good read about the Boselli family's experience with COVID19.
Obviously Tony had a really bad case. His son who is a Sr football player at FSU also came down with it.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...d-father-tony-boselli-faced-against-covid-19/

I think one thing that has probably been underplayed over the last month is the serious of the illness. Not from a death standpoint - just by how hard it can knock you down if you get it.
First off, if you do get it, even if you are asymptomatic that means 2 weeks that you cannot go into work. Since asymptomatic patients are contagious just like symptomatic patients, and at least one study found asymptomatic people were actually more contagious (had a higher concentration of COVID 19 in their system).

If you are symptomatic you are likely going to be knocked down for weeks. Our neighbor, the 25 yr old nurse, was in the hopsital for 3 days and at home for 14. We have another 26 yr old who got something in early March that we now believe was probably COVID19 (flu test was negative) and he is in great shape and couldn't get out of bed for 5 days.

People under 40 are extremely unlikely to die from it (though a few will), but if they are symptomatic, it is likely going to be the hardest, longest lasting illness they have gone through in their life. I've also seen there is some concern in the medical community, that we probably won't know the answer to for years, of whether it does permanent damage to your lungs.

Finally, read an article on Marijuana and COVID19. Basically it said if you don't use it, don't start. If you do, try to stop for now. There are signs that smoking weed puts you at a higher risk of more severe COVID19 symptoms and a higher chance of needing a ventilator.

 

[gameface]

I saw an article this morning on a study done by the Langone medical center in NY. It said the most common co morbidity is not age or heart disease but a BMI over 30. Obesity causes
inflammation and it is inflammation of the lungs that is most deadly about Covid 19.

 

[MWBATL]

I understand this model was way, way off in its estimated number of hospital admissions and ICU beds and ventilators needed. And of course, the death estimates have dropped considerably since its earlier projections. It seems to be settling in to an estimate of mid-60,000 as a total number of deaths.

Honestly, as long as the health system is not being overwhelmed by hospital admissions and ventilator needs, I think it will become a very interesting question as to how severe an economic disruption you have a right to cause to save ??? lives. That may sound harsh or unfeeling, but in running large groups (like nations) those are in fact the calculations that our leaders have to make. And we do make them. We all make them, in fact. We decide that the risk of the airplane crashing is so low that we are willing to use it to save time in our travels. But people still die from time to time flying. (The list goes on, but I suspect you get the point.)

There is still much to learn, but one has to consider all of the data and not just one single model. Iceland, for example, has not shut any of its businesses, and yet has only 7 deaths. Perhaps the people of Iceland have very few underlying health conditions, as we are constantly being told that 95% plus of those who die from the China coronavirus have underlying health issues. In the UK, the Imperial College study went so far as to describe those dying from coronavirus as in many cases being people who would be expected to die anyway within the next 12-24 months.

I believe these facts must be considered when considering the rules to use for societal re-opening. YOU may choose not to attend a large group gathering next Fall, but it is not at all clear to me as yet that this virus is such that we should continue to ban such activities. Those who say we should do so until we get a virus are (imho, of course) far too cautious. The economic cost to this country would be too severe.

I wonder sometimes if those who make such statements are suffering paycheck to paycheck as so many Americans are today. If you are secure in your retirement or social security checks (or both), then perhaps you should consider how you would feel about this whole issue if suddenly those stopped. There is a real cost to forcing continued severe social restrictions on the country.

This has been an unusual disease and an unusual situation. It has been exacerbated by bad information sent out by the Chinese government. But it certainly does not appear to be the black death. It is a nasty virus, but even as bad as it is, more Americans will likely die this year by suicide than by this virus. The frightening part of this virus is that you can make your own decisions about, flying, driving, or committing suicide...but you could get this virus because of decisions someone else makes, which indeed is frustrating. The same is true of influenza, but to a lesser extent than coronavirus. But, someone needs to be trying to do some calculus on the cost to society of continued mitigation versus relaxing the mitigation and moving forward.

 

[RamblinRed]

This is University related rather than AA specific, but if Harvard is having financial issues, I can't even imagine what it is going to be like for your typical state university.

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/4/14/harvard-coronavirus-hiring-salary-freeze/

 

[orientalnc]

This is University related rather than AA specific, but if Harvard is having financial issues, I can't even imagine what it is going to be like for your typical state university.

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/4/14/harvard-coronavirus-hiring-salary-freeze/

Harvard's endowment is worth over $40 billion, so there must be some serious limitation on how the money can be used. My guess is that it cannot be used for operating expenses.

 

[MWBATL]

This is University related rather than AA specific, but if Harvard is having financial issues, I can't even imagine what it is going to be like for your typical state university.

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/4/14/harvard-coronavirus-hiring-salary-freeze/

With respect, Harvard's pay scales are well beyond what state universities usually pay. And they spend a ton of money on non-academic support (mental health is a nice way of putting it).

 

[orientalnc]

My neighbor is trying to get a refund for the residence and meal cost she prepaid for her daughter at Carolina. Daughter is living with grandmother in Cary, so they do not have any direct cost associated with that. The university has a fund to help students who incurred additional expenses due to the campus being inaccessible, but are not willing to refund anything. The fund used to cover the extra cost is not part of UNC money. It is a fund supported by voluntary donations, but managed by the university. UNC denied my neighbor's request saying that she has to document the additional expenses to be eligible for any payment from the fund.

I think this will be in court as a class action very soon. UNC claims that they cannot refund resident hall or meal ticket money as those are committed to the cost of maintaining those halls and services.

 

[RamblinRed]

Most endowments have heavy restrictions -that is one thing that alums and fans seem not to grasp. (why can't we just take money from the endowment to pay off a coach we don't like?!)
The vast majority of endowment funds have restrictions on what that fund can be used for and how much of that fund can be used (often the principal cannot be touched and usually the money is only available for a specific college or student scholarship, etc).

So the issues for universities with smaller endowments will be similar. They will also be impacted by state budgets that are getting wrecked right now. very unlikely that the states will be able to provide their normal levels of funding to the colleges. If students cannot attend in person this fall the economic fallout to universities is going to be huge as they will not be able to charge anything other than Tuition and possibly some fees.

The idea of refunding money came up in a conversation I had when Harvard first made the decision to go online last month (they were one of the first to go this route). My question was whether any of the money the student (or more likely his/her parents are paying) will be refunded - particularly room and board. That individual's response was he didn't see schools doing anything like that, maybe a little small refund, but not nearly what parents will be expecting.

 

[RamblinRed]

Tour de France has been postponed indefinitely (was supposed to begin June 27th).
The Chinese Basketball Association has postponed its season until at least july. It is widely believed the NBA will not restart its season until it sees if its partner CBA can resume and watch it for a couple of weeks to learn from it. CBA was supposed to start originally in January.