Ncaa chances

slugboy

slugboy

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This year is going to be weird, and I'm not sure how many will be invited--if we stick with 68, there are only 37 at large bids. We need to see if we even hold the tournament, and how many teams are capable of playing.

If it's 68 teams with 37 at large bids, winning the ACC tournament is our sure shot, with a regular season championship also working. Right now, that doesn't look like us, unless we develop some more offensive firepower. I think 5-7 ACC teams can get in. We don't have a lot of top 10 programs, but if there are teams that can't play because of COVID, which might still be the case in March, more mid-tier programs might get in.

I think the bare minimum winning percentage, even in COVID days, is 50%, and is probably closer to a 55% winning percentage. You should have a quality (upset) win in there, or two. If we're around 55% winning percentage, we have a shot at the NCAA taking us as a sixth or seventh ACC team. That means a winning conference record, since we're 4-3 right now.

We'd also have to look good as a basketball team. Our RPI is #139 right now. Our KenPom ranking is #77. I'd expect an NCAA at-large team to be top 40 or thereabouts in one or both polls. If ten teams fall out because of COVID, then it could be top 50 or 55, but that still needs a significant uptick in our play.

We've played 7 games so far. If we play 25 games this year, I think 13 wins would be on the bleeding edge of the bubble. If we play about 30, then 16 wins is minimum, and 17 is a little safer. To get to 17/13, we'd need to win 13 out of 23--so about 60ish percent, which would be a great conference record for us.

Right now, I think we're looking at:
  1. Duke
  2. Virginia
  3. North Carolina
  4. Florida State
  5. Syracuse
  6. Virginia Tech
We have to be better in our record than at least one of those teams.

FWIW, Mercer and Ga State have a great shot at the tournament right now.

2021 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament - Wikipedia
 

Deleted member 2897

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slugboy said:
This year is going to be weird, and I'm not sure how many will be invited--if we stick with 68, there are only 37 at large bids. We need to see if we even hold the tournament, and how many teams are capable of playing.

If it's 68 teams with 37 at large bids, winning the ACC tournament is our sure shot, with a regular season championship also working. Right now, that doesn't look like us, unless we develop some more offensive firepower. I think 5-7 ACC teams can get in. We don't have a lot of top 10 programs, but if there are teams that can't play because of COVID, which might still be the case in March, more mid-tier programs might get in.

I think the bare minimum winning percentage, even in COVID days, is 50%, and is probably closer to a 55% winning percentage. You should have a quality (upset) win in there, or two. If we're around 55% winning percentage, we have a shot at the NCAA taking us as a sixth or seventh ACC team. That means a winning conference record, since we're 4-3 right now.

We'd also have to look good as a basketball team. Our RPI is #139 right now. Our KenPom ranking is #77. I'd expect an NCAA at-large team to be top 40 or thereabouts in one or both polls. If ten teams fall out because of COVID, then it could be top 50 or 55, but that still needs a significant uptick in our play.

We've played 7 games so far. If we play 25 games this year, I think 13 wins would be on the bleeding edge of the bubble. If we play about 30, then 16 wins is minimum, and 17 is a little safer. To get to 17/13, we'd need to win 13 out of 23--so about 60ish percent, which would be a great conference record for us.

Right now, I think we're looking at:
  1. Duke
  2. Virginia
  3. North Carolina
  4. Florida State
  5. Syracuse
  6. Virginia Tech
We have to be better in our record than at least one of those teams.

FWIW, Mercer and Ga State have a great shot at the tournament right now.

2021 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament - Wikipedia
Click to expand...

Mercer and Georgia State are a combined 13-2. Their 2 losses are to each other, where they split a 2-game set. LOL. Sitting pretty.

In case you didn't see it, our game tonight was canceled due to COVID/contact tracing on the UAB team. Next game is UNC 12/30. Shame, because UAB was 7-1 with their only loss being by a bucket at the very end the other night...they couldn't hit the broadside of a barn from 3PT and still nearly won.
 

Jacketman99

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I don't understand the pessimism. We have played much better since we actually started real practice. I don't see a team in the ACC we cannot beat. We have really cut down on turnovers and our defense has picked up. We have a good shot to make the tournament if we play to our capability.
 

bke1984

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Jacketman99 said:
I don't understand the pessimism. We have played much better since we actually started real practice. I don't see a team in the ACC we cannot beat. We have really cut down on turnovers and our defense has picked up. We have a good shot to make the tournament if we play to our capability.
Click to expand...
We are playing better, but shooting is still a problem. And FSU is pretty close to an ACC team we can’t beat. That’s a matchup nightmare for us.
 

THWG16

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Jacketman99 said:
I don't understand the pessimism. We have played much better since we actually started real practice. I don't see a team in the ACC we cannot beat. We have really cut down on turnovers and our defense has picked up. We have a good shot to make the tournament if we play to our capability.
Click to expand...
We should’ve been having real practice to begin with
 

Deleted member 2897

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Jacketman99 said:
I don't understand the pessimism. We have played much better since we actually started real practice. I don't see a team in the ACC we cannot beat. We have really cut down on turnovers and our defense has picked up. We have a good shot to make the tournament if we play to our capability.
Click to expand...

Because we shouldn’t lose to Georgia State and Mercer no matter what. So, many of us are in a bit of a wait and see approach to see if we can recover from what may have been a damaging no contact approach originally.

UNC will tell us a lot. We shouldn’t win, but if we do or it’s close we know we have a good team. We still may have a good team if we lose bad, because sometimes you just have off nights. But 0-2 in the ACC gets to be a deeper and deeper hole to get out of.
 
GT_EE78

GT_EE78

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I think our chances of dancing are less than 50% but possibly doable.
Go one over .500 in Acc play,Win two in ACCT and we'll be 4 over .500 and on the bubble.
 
SecretAgentBuzz

SecretAgentBuzz

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I know none of us like excuses, but I think the GSU and Mercer games were more a product of when and how they were scheduled than anything else. Everybody knows GState is a good team with a good coach and that game really could have gone either way. But playing in our first game, after 4OTs, and being forced to play again in under 48 hours, you could tell our legs were tired against Mercer. That's the one we should have won, but they fought hard, and we were clearly tired. It was the worst set-up for a game--short turn around, no fans, tired legs, hungry opponent.

Things are looking up after our win against UNC last night. Let's hope we continue the winning ways.
 

Deleted member 2897

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Our KenPom is basically unchanged after beating the #21 team last night. 🤷‍♂️
 
Techster

Techster

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SecretAgentBuzz said:
I know none of us like excuses, but I think the GSU and Mercer games were more a product of when and how they were scheduled than anything else. Everybody knows GState is a good team with a good coach and that game really could have gone either way. But playing in our first game, after 4OTs, and being forced to play again in under 48 hours, you could tell our legs were tired against Mercer. That's the one we should have won, but they fought hard, and we were clearly tired. It was the worst set-up for a game--short turn around, no fans, tired legs, hungry opponent.

Things are looking up after our win against UNC last night. Let's hope we continue the winning ways.
Click to expand...

If we would have practiced normally as opposed to non-contact, no way we lose to GA State and we definitely don't go to overtime. No way we lose to Mercer either. Not taking anything away from them because they beat up us, but not practicing normally had a huge affect on us. You can tell with how we rotate defensively, and how we clogg the passing lanes the past few games that not being able to practice as we should have affected us on the defensive end. Our defense has always been something we could use as an advantage and get us through cold spells shooting.
 
slugboy

slugboy

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We’ve played 8 games and are 5-3. UNC is 5-4.

Pomeroy I believe factors in preseason ratings through most of January (https://kenpom.com/blog/what-happens-to-preseason-ratings-when-its-not-preseason-anymore/).

Those preseason ratings should hold us down for a while, and hold UNC up. UNC started at #23 (see https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp...ight-election-night/sq3tn9h39bz81f20t433c5e6s)

If we were 8-0, we’d maybe be approach top 30 KenPom status about now, but we haven’t done enough to overcome the pre-baked seeding of his model. One game won’t do it

BTW, we’re #74. Ga State is 6-1 and #104. Mercer is 7-2 and #159. Drake is 11-0 and #77.
Kentucky is 1-6 and #52–they haven’t plunged near as far as they should have

TL;DR: this cake ain’t baked yet, it’s too early to do anything with this model, and he overdamped it for the first two months. Otherwise, you’d see a lot more mid majors in his top 10.

Being top 50 in February would be a good thing, but that’ll take work
 
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