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roadkill

roadkill

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Root4GT said:
Injuries are part of every team's season. To make a fair comparison on where we would stand you would have to do the same for the other 16 Conference teams.

Our Defense has clearly improved more than I thought possible. The offense, for whatever reason, injuries included, has not.

If we beat NCST we will have had a good season in my view! No bad losses and a couple of good wins!
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Our defense has shown remarkable improvement starting with the VT game. Our offense’s ranking is undoubtedly affected by our poor showings against ND and VT. Also, it's not as explosive as last year, but more methodical. It’s probably a result of the trade-offs we made to limit turnovers.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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roadkill said:
Our defense has shown remarkable improvement starting with the VT game. Our offense’s ranking is undoubtedly affected by our poor showings against ND and VT. Also, it's not as explosive as last year, but more methodical. It’s probably a result of the trade-offs we made to limit turnovers.
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The defense improvement should let
A faulkner be less methodical?
B.faulkner be more methodical
AND STILL WIN.
 
4shotB

4shotB

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UgaBlows said:
i’m really impressed by how much Santucci has improved us on 3rd down efficiency, we are top 10 in that category iirc
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It seemed like we have gone 15 years with seeing our opponents punt team 4 or 5 times during an entire season. Teams didn't bring their punters to BDS to save on travel expenses. Now we occasionally see that in the same game!!!!!!!
 

TechPhi97

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MountainBuzzMan said:
Wow! Who would have expected this going into the season? It is a true Bizarro World this year. football and everywhere else

"Georgia Tech ranks No. 40 in the nation and No. 2 in the ACC in scoring defense (21.9 points per game), while the offense (27.7 points) ranks No. 70 in the nation and No. 11 in the league."
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First, let me say that it's pretty amazing to see the defense as #2 in the ACC in scoring defense. That's really strong, and an amazing improvement over the past years. I can't say that I'm surprised that we're improved, but I will say that I'm surprised at being #2.

Because I'm a believer in FEI as a measure of performance over raw stats, especially rank comparisons like "2nd in ACC in Scoring Defense", I also took a look to see how we are progressing this year. Here's a comparison between last year (end of year) and this year (to date).

[Metric]: [2023] vs. [2024]
FEI: 50 vs. 44
Offensive FEI: 31 vs. 29
Defensive FEI: 77 vs. 51
Special Teams FEI: 64 vs. 112

The other thing that the bcftoys.com website does is break down the unadjusted metric and the opponent adjusted for each of the areas. For instance:

[Year] [Metric]: [Raw Score] vs. [Adjusted Score]
2024 OFEI: 35 vs. 29 (5th in the ACC)
2023 OFEI: 43 vs. 31 (4th in the ACC)

2024 DFEI: 81 vs. 51 (22nd hardest competition - 7th in the ACC)
2023 DFEI: 109 vs. 77 (24th hardest competition - 15th in the ACC)

The other thing that's interesting, if you're trying to quantify the impact of King being out, is the offense game ratings: https://www.bcftoys.com/2024-ogr#georgia-tech

The OGR metric is the opponent-adjusted game rating, and the Pct after it is the specific game's percentile rank against all others. You can see that our percentile rank was above 80% in most games before King's injury (except Louisville - ugh). Then we went down to .619 against ND and .224 against VT. Back up to .804 against Miami.

Lots to absorb in the numbers, but it looks like our offense is performing about the same as last year with an improvement in defense. To be a Top 25 team we really need both of those components to be below 30, or to have a Top 10 offense or defense. For instance, Indiana is #9 with the 3rd ranked offense and the 30th ranked defense. Miami is #12 with the 1st ranked offense and the 63rd ranked defense. As one gets better the other can get worse.
 
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Heisman's Ghost

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TechPhi97 said:
First, let me say that it's pretty amazing to see the defense as #2 in the ACC in scoring defense. That's really strong, and an amazing improvement over the past years. I can't say that I'm surprised that we're improved, but I will say that I'm surprised at being #2.

Because I'm a believer in FEI as a measure of performance over raw stats, especially rank comparisons like "2nd in ACC in Scoring Defense", I also took a look to see how we are progressing this year. Here's a comparison between last year (end of year) and this year (to date).

[Metric]: [2023] vs. [2024]
FEI: 50 vs. 44
Offensive FEI: 31 vs. 29
Defensive FEI: 77 vs. 51
Special Teams FEI: 64 vs. 112

The other thing that the bcftoys.com website does is break down the unadjusted metric and the opponent adjusted for each of the areas. For instance:

[Year] [Metric]: [Raw Score] vs. [Adjusted Score]
2024 OFEI: 35 vs. 29 (5th in the ACC)
2023 OFEI: 43 vs. 31 (4th in the ACC)

2024 DFEI: 81 vs. 51 (22nd hardest competition - 7th in the ACC)
2023 DFEI: 109 vs. 77 (24th hardest competition - 15th in the ACC)

The other thing that's interesting, if you're trying to quantify the impact of King being out, is the offense game ratings: https://www.bcftoys.com/2024-ogr#georgia-tech

The OGR metric is the opponent-adjusted game rating, and the Pct after it is the specific game's percentile rank against all others. You can see that our percentile rank was above 80% in most games before King's injury (except Louisville - ugh). Then we went down to .619 against ND and .224 against VT. Back up to .804 against Miami.

Lots to absorb in the numbers, but it looks like our offense is performing about the same as last year with an improvement in defense. To be a Top 25 team we really need both of those components to be below 30, or to have a Top 10 offense or defense. For instance, Indiana is #9 with the 3rd ranked offense and the 30th ranked defense. Miami is #12 with the 1st ranked offense and the 63rd ranked defense. As one gets better the other can get worse.
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I know that there are lots of stat freaks, math nerds, and what not on this forum. As a 50 plus year Tech fan I can remember when a 3 point lead was good as gold at Grant Field. This Thursday, just win by one point if need be. The only stat that really counts is the scoreboard everything else is window dressing.
 
Bogey

Bogey

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If we win Thursday night, it will be an outstanding season for this season with all the injuries to our key players, successful season even if we lose the last two in my opinion. It is scary to think we actually could be 8-3 going into the UGA game if we win and if we had beat VT which, in hindsight, we very possibly could have if Philo had played most of the game rather than an injured Pyron, again just my opinion.
 

Root4GT

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Bogey said:
If we win Thursday night, it will be an outstanding season for this season with all the injuries to our key players, successful season even if we lose the last two in my opinion. It is scary to think we actually could be 8-3 going into the UGA game if we win and if we had beat VT which, in hindsight, we very possibly could have if Philo had played most of the game rather than an injured Pyron, again just my opinion.
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Philo completed 42% of his passes against VT. That is not a winning formula when we couldn’t run the ball worth a lick.

VT played ultra conservative on offense as our offense clearly was not going to score.

Hard to say the outcome would have been different. Anything is possible but VT was the better team that game. Neither team were overly impressive.
 
Bogey

Bogey

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Root4GT said:
Philo completed 42% of his passes against VT. That is not a winning formula when we couldn’t run the ball worth a lick.

VT played ultra conservative on offense as our offense clearly was not going to score.

Hard to say the outcome would have been different. Anything is possible but VT was the better team that game. Neither team were overly impressive.
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I figured you would reply. 🙂
IMO, Philo became more confident in his first time with serious minutes in college football as he played and moved the ball well as he adjusted. If he had played more of the game, his percentage would have been higher for sure. VT was not impressive at all to me, and we should have won that game, just my opinion.
 

Root4GT

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Bogey said:
I figured you would reply. 🙂
IMO, Philo became more confident in his first time with serious minutes in college football as he played and moved the ball well as he adjusted. If he had played more of the game, his percentage would have been higher for sure. VT was not impressive at all to me, and we should have won that game, just my opinion.
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You have to look at the game as a whole. Was VT ever threatened by GT's offense? NO! Did VT need to play a "safe" offensive game to make sure they won the game - yes! They did which was the correct approach. There is nothing in the way GT played that game to suggest we would have won unless VT turned the ball over or screwed up majorly on Special Teams. They players safe and won easily!

Could the game have been different with Philo all game? Sure, but you cannot assume VT would have played the same offensive game if Philo was actually getting us more than 2 FGs. Games are dynamic and changing one variable and assuming the other variables don't change is not a valid way to look back at a game!
 
Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

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Root4GT said:
Injuries are part of every team's season. To make a fair comparison on where we would stand you would have to do the same for the other 16 Conference teams.

Our Defense has clearly improved more than I thought possible. The offense, for whatever reason, injuries included, has not.

If we beat NCST we will have had a good season in my view! No bad losses and a couple of good wins!
Click to expand...
Agree.

Winning by QB & RB committee against Miami was brilliant. I’m not sure we can pull that off again this year. We can hope to be well by bowl season.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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Bogey said:
If we win Thursday night, it will be an outstanding season for this season with all the injuries to our key players, successful season even if we lose the last two in my opinion. It is scary to think we actually could be 8-3 going into the UGA game if we win and if we had beat VT which, in hindsight, we very possibly could have if Philo had played most of the game rather than an injured Pyron, again just my opinion.
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To good to just like
Ditto.
The defense in first half of Syracuse was our wtf. The offense got it close. Straight up we should have won that game.
After getting roughed up by ND dl, Vt showed me the team is full of fight. Post miami for all the talk about the clever offense, the defense is the story.
We need HK to be some what dangerous against ncst and key has the tools for gt to have a dominating performance.
Being optimistic about gt plaging a total game is a great feeling.
 
Ramble1885

Ramble1885

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Heisman's Ghost said:
I know that there are lots of stat freaks, math nerds, and what not on this forum. As a 50 plus year Tech fan I can remember when a 3 point lead was good as gold at Grant Field. This Thursday, just win by one point if need be. The only stat that really counts is the scoreboard everything else is window dressing.
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this. I don't care how it happens if I see (7-4) next to our record come Friday morning I will be happy.
 
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