NC paper prediction

[Peacone36]

During the Braves' slugfest last night I played around with this a bit. I think we agree on the top 3 and bottom 5. Unless something unusual happens, that prediction is probably solid. It's the middle 7 teams that I am having trouble sorting. I think ND could be right in the middle of this pack, not #4 overall. How we fare in our games with them could determine our position in the league. If I were placing them now, NC State would be my #4, with UVA maybe #5. Six through ten could be in any order.

This is probably the safest and most logical stance.

 

[RamblinRed]

I hear ya. I knew I would take some heat for ND and I have. I am actually higher on them than some of the Slap the Sign guys. I really like Dane Goodwin as a sophomore and prentiss hubb couldn’t possibly be that bad again.

Also, Rex’s mom was dealing with a serious medical issue last year prior to his injury, which could explain his early struggles.

The Harvey transfer doesn’t bother me. Laz should step into that 3/4 spot and provide a better outside option. I’m also a huge Mooney and Gibbs fan.

I am high on us as well. When the 3MW guys said Syracuse would definitely be better I thought that was a head scratcher. Jalen Carey needs to be spectacular if Cuse is going to be anything and he underwhelmed last season.

Maybe cuse will weigh in on Syracuse, but i'm with you on them. I'm not convinced Battle and Brissett made their teammates better in any way - but losing Battle, Brissett, Howard and Chukwu is an awful lot of production to have to replace. That's 4 of the top 6 guys on the team in my metrics. Chukwu might be a bigger loss than people think as his length really helped defensively. I don't see them being as strong defensively as they usually are with being both less experienced and not really as long as usual. I like both Guerrier and Goodine coming in and Girard put up video game numbers against weak competition in NY (the kid can definitely score, can he do anything else though). Both Edwards and Ajak are long term big man plays who probably won't contribute alot as FR.

That could mean alot of Dolezaj at C and as you mentioned carey has to absolutely live up to his HS billing or this team may really struggle to make the NCAA. Of the guys that played significant min last year really only Dolezaj, Boeheim and Hughes return and Dolezaj will probably have to play significant min out of position at C (especially if Sidibe continues to be limited by injuries). They feel like an NCAA bubble team right now and one if one or two guys don't pan out will be on the wrong side of the bubble.

 

[Peacone36]

Maybe cuse will weigh in on Syracuse, but i'm with you on them. I'm not convinced Battle and Brissett made their teammates better in any way - but losing Battle, Brissett, Howard and Chukwu is an awful lot of production to have to replace. That's 4 of the top 6 guys on the team in my metrics. Chukwu might be a bigger loss than people think as his length really helped defensively. I don't see them being as strong defensively as they usually are with being both less experienced and not really as long as usual. I like both Guerrier and Goodine coming in and Girard put up video game numbers against weak competition in NY (the kid can definitely score, can he do anything else though). Both Edwards and Ajak are long term big man plays who probably won't contribute alot as FR.

That could mean alot of Dolezaj at C and as you mentioned carey has to absolutely live up to his HS billing or this team may really struggle to make the NCAA. Of the guys that played significant min last year really only Dolezaj, Boeheim and Hughes return and Dolezaj will probably have to play significant min out of position at C (especially if Sidibe continues to be limited by injuries). They feel like an NCAA bubble team right now and one if one or two guys don't pan out will be on the wrong side of the bubble.

Agreed on all accounts.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, if you had ND at 6th or 7th I likely wouldn't have given it much thought. Going to 4th just feels like a bridge too far. Brey is an excellent coach, and i'm expecting a bounce back season, but bouncing back from last place to top 5 is just incredibly hard unless you have some serious talent coming in and ND doesn't really have that. They are more like GT in that they recruit solid talent guys that they plan to coach up and allow to develop.

 

[Peacone36]

FWIW, if you had ND at 6th or 7th I likely wouldn't have given it much thought. Going to 4th just feels like a bridge too far. Brey is an excellent coach, and i'm expecting a bounce back season, but bouncing back from last place to top 5 is just incredibly hard unless you have some serious talent coming in and ND doesn't really have that. They are more like GT in that they recruit solid talent guys that they plan to coach up and allow to develop.

Ha, it’s what I do brother.....

 

[alagold]

What body part do I need to sacrifice for a 7th place ACC finish?

now that is funny--but oh so true

 

[CuseJacket]

Maybe cuse will weigh in on Syracuse, but i'm with you on them. I'm not convinced Battle and Brissett made their teammates better in any way - but losing Battle, Brissett, Howard and Chukwu is an awful lot of production to have to replace. That's 4 of the top 6 guys on the team in my metrics. Chukwu might be a bigger loss than people think as his length really helped defensively. I don't see them being as strong defensively as they usually are with being both less experienced and not really as long as usual. I like both Guerrier and Goodine coming in and Girard put up video game numbers against weak competition in NY (the kid can definitely score, can he do anything else though). Both Edwards and Ajak are long term big man plays who probably won't contribute alot as FR.

That could mean alot of Dolezaj at C and as you mentioned carey has to absolutely live up to his HS billing or this team may really struggle to make the NCAA. Of the guys that played significant min last year really only Dolezaj, Boeheim and Hughes return and Dolezaj will probably have to play significant min out of position at C (especially if Sidibe continues to be limited by injuries). They feel like an NCAA bubble team right now and one if one or two guys don't pan out will be on the wrong side of the bubble.

Hard to summarize it any better. Well done, @RamblinRed .

I think this is they key: "I'm not convinced Battle and Brissett made their teammates better in any way". And you can safely throw Howard into that sentence. In other words, the hope is there is addition by subtraction in some ways.

Agree and have said before that Chukwu might be the biggest loss, not only for his contribution but due to what's left behind.

Here's the glass half full view... not necessarily what I think will happen, but what I believe is in the realm of possibility:

• Guerrier > NBA-auditioning Brissett
• Carey/anyone with a pulse > Howard
• No Battle = less one-on-one and more team ball
• Girard + Buddy Boeheim + Hughes + Guerrier + Dolezaj = the distinct possibility of a rotation that can shoot 3's from any position
• Jim Boeheim often rises to the occasion when doubted

I am hopeful it'll be a more enjoyable offensive team to watch, at the least, simply with the premise that the players and the ball might move again.

 

[orientalnc]

• Guerrier > NBA-auditioning Brissett
• Carey/anyone with a pulse > Howard
• No Battle = less one-on-one and more team ball
• Girard + Buddy Boeheim + Hughes + Guerrier + Dolezaj = the distinct possibility of a rotation that can shoot 3's from any position
• Jim Boeheim often rises to the occasion when doubted

The key phrases here are "NBA-auditioning ..." and "Jim Boeheim ...."

Brissett could have meant so much more had he played for the team. That said, he, Battle, and Howard all performed better the previous year. It seemed the team chemistry was not there for Cuse. But, I am not as certain Cuse will be better without these guys. Howard busted his butt in the ACC tournament. Cuse missing the dance should not be put on his shoulders.

Boeheim is clearly a great coach and he usually gets a lot more from his players than most people expected. Maybe that was the case last year and if it was, Cuse may be in for a tough season because they lost some good players. I do not see Cuse getting into the top three or falling into the bottom five. The stew in the middle still needs stirring.

 

[RamblinRed]

Thanks Cuse. I do think it will at least be a little more pleasing to watch offensively. So much of last year was either Battle or Brissett trying to play hero ball or audition for the NBA.

The second point may be the largest. They really need a guard step up and be a solid distributor and runner of an offense.

 

[YlJacket]

The better get a lot of player improvement if they want to run Dolezaj at the 5. I still remember AD lighting him up and Boeheim subbing Chukwu as fast as he could. He needs 20+ lbs to play there all year and he really doesn't have the length or mindset for it. When you really extend the zone like Syracuse does - and we do - you have to have a true rim protector in the middle or teams will really take advantage of you.

 

[Peacone36]

Hard to summarize it any better. Well done, @RamblinRed .

I think this is they key: "I'm not convinced Battle and Brissett made their teammates better in any way". And you can safely throw Howard into that sentence. In other words, the hope is there is addition by subtraction in some ways.

Agree and have said before that Chukwu might be the biggest loss, not only for his contribution but due to what's left behind.

Here's the glass half full view... not necessarily what I think will happen, but what I believe is in the realm of possibility:

• Guerrier > NBA-auditioning Brissett
• Carey/anyone with a pulse > Howard
• No Battle = less one-on-one and more team ball
• Girard + Buddy Boeheim + Hughes + Guerrier + Dolezaj = the distinct possibility of a rotation that can shoot 3's from any position
• Jim Boeheim often rises to the occasion when doubted

I am hopeful it'll be a more enjoyable offensive team to watch, at the least, simply with the premise that the players and the ball might move again.

I do reeeeeealllly like Guerrier. One of my favorite ACC freshman.

My concern, similar to Duke, is how much Boeheim actually wants to coach any more. His assertiveness, especially on the offensive end, has been...lacking.

 

[orientalnc]

I do reeeeeealllly like Guerrier. One of my favorite ACC freshman.

My concern, similar to Duke, is how much Boeheim actually wants to coach any more. His assertiveness, especially on the offensive end, has been...lacking.

I think he would have gone but for his son playing. He has some health issues.

 

[CuseJacket]

I do reeeeeealllly like Guerrier. One of my favorite ACC freshman.

My concern, similar to Duke, is how much Boeheim actually wants to coach any more. His assertiveness, especially on the offensive end, has been...lacking.

I think he would have gone but for his son playing. He has some health issues.

Agree with both to an extent. The zone defense is the pride and joy, around which all other things revolve.

That said, it's obvious he's always been prideful/arrogant, which I think is good for W's.

And I imagine he's eager for big results with his son on the team for a number of reasons (scholarship validation, joint experiences, show the kid that the old man still has it, etc.).

 

[1979jacket]

I do not want to be Debbie downer. I actually think the football team will be better than some think. However, when I look at this team I don't have confidence. This team has had
1. only one player who shoots well regularly - Devoe. They were a bad shooting team last year.
2. After Banks who gets in foul trouble, like many big men. there is no other really big guy to protect the rim
3. This team has no one who is able to create his own shot

I agree several teams would seem to be down next year including BC, Syracuse, Clemson, ND that will help our chances. However I believe we break even with the middle to bottom tier and lose to the upper echelon. So maybe 7-13? I'll try to avoid talking about the coach.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, Clemson has been representing the US at the World University Games in Naples. They play for the Gold Medal tomorrow against Ukraine - who they beat by 1 point in a pool game.

They are 5-0.

From looking at the boxscores. Simms and Mack have been their 2 best players. Jemison hasn't played more than 10 min in a game so it looks like Simms is working as their primary big,

Both Dawes and Hunter are seeing consistent time. Honor is seeing alot of time too, we'll see if he gets a waiver - i'm not counting on it. Hunter's time fluxtuates depending upon his shooting. When he is hitting his shot he gets alot of time. When he doesn't he sits more. Over 80% of his shots have been threes.
Moore has been a complete non-factor. is avg about 7 mpg and has made 2 shots in 5 games, shooting under 15%.
If Honor does not get a waiver it looks like Newman will be the PG. He is getting alot of time.

Not sure the level of competition but good for Clemson. If they have to play Simms at C most of the year I don't think that is going to go well over the course of 20 ACC games. Simms and Mack have clearly been the 2 best players on that team for this Tourney. Hunter had one game of 15 where he hit 5 threes.
Looks like Clemson will be playing small ball alot.

 

[73CAV]

I don’t understand the Virginia love right now. I know Bennett is a great coach and that style levels the field a little bit but that roster was decimated. 78% of their made triples are gone, 56% of their free throws and 55% of their minutes played.

I have State and the Irish both ahead of the Wahoos right now until I see Morsell and the JUCO play at the D1 level.

My rankings:
1-Louisville
2-Duke
3-UNC
4-Notre Dame
5-NCST
6-UVA
7-FSU
8-GT
9-Miami
10-Syracuse
11-BC
12-Clemson
13-Pitt
14-Wake
15-VPI

 

[73CAV]

QUOTE="Peacone36, post: 595935, member: 1374"]I don’t understand the Virginia love right now. I know Bennett is a great coach and that style levels the field a little bit but that roster was decimated. 78% of their made triples are gone, 56% of their free throws and 55% of their minutes played.

I have State and the Irish both ahead of the Wahoos right now until I see Morsell and the JUCO play at the D1 level.

My rankings:
1-Louisville
2-Duke
3-UNC
4-Notre Dame
5-NCST
6-UVA
7-FSU
8-GT
9-Miami
10-Syracuse
11-BC
12-Clemson
13-Pitt
14-Wake
15-VPI[/QUOTE]
I'm a Virginia fan, and I am a bit unsure about the upcoming season. You're right that Virginia lost a lot, however the losses were primarily in the back court. Despite the graduation of Salt, the front court looks to be stronger. The return of Diakite is huge. Also, if the past is any indication, the RS 3rd year, under Bennett, is typically the one where players really emerge. It's an unknown, but Huff does appear to be on that threshold. Caffaro is intriguing as is Kadin Shedrick. The real key, as you note, will be the contributions of Woldetensae and Morsell. There's serious potential there, but is is unproven. The back court lacks depth. If those two aren't ready, the team will have issues. Clark, despite his starts, is still something of a situational role player. He is great between the foul circles, but has issues below them. Especially against some teams. Somehow, Bennett is going to have to cobble some sort of production in the back court from Stattmann, Badocchi, McKoy, and/or Key, but that will depend on Woldetensae and Morsell being firmly in the equation, IMO. All in all, no real reasons for despair, but lots of unknowns, too

 

[Bogey]

What body part do I need to sacrifice for a 7th place ACC finish?

I've always heard the left nut is the most common sacrifice.

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