My way too early, possibly problematic look at potential GT Hoops roster management

[Backstreetbuzz]

Forrest is averaging 7.2 PPG on 33% shooting for South Plains College. However, he is only playing 10 minutes per game, so i guess that is pretty good. He has not started any of their 12 games. South Plains is 12-0 and averages about 85 PPG.

 

[YlJacket]

Do we know Forrest is a scholarship player?

 

[dtm1997]

I waited for a while to reply to this, but here goes!

First off, I share your concerns that we are facing a “good problem” in roster management next year. We have a lot more players than we have scholarships to offer. And none of us know how it will all shake out. But I do disagree a little with a couple of your assumptions.

i think Deebo is just as likely to stay as he is to leave. Next year he is a senior, and will be a leader of our team. And next year our team could be very high-profile. Deebo needs to do whatever he thinks will best position him to showcase his skill set to hopefully get to the NBA. I’m not sure transferring (especially transferring down) will be his best option.

Also you assume Souare will go and provide an “obvious spot to upgrade talent”. You certainly might be right, but how can we know that? He has not played in a game, and I personally have not been to a practice this year. His talent is an unknown so far.

On your “incoming” list you left off Forrest (which makes our “problem” even worse). Over the Holidays his Dad told me Jalen is coming next season. And there are a couple of other studs we are actively recruiting.

So thanks for getting us thinking about the roster for next year, and for writing down your assumptions and guesses. It will be an adventure!

I think you make some great points. You always do.

I like Deebo, but if we look at the roster, who we're recruiting, etc. does he potentially have a lesser role for us next year? I think yes is a possible answer across the 3 backcourt spots he may get minutes at.

Deebo nails some great, timely 3s reasonably often, but his defense hasn't improved, maybe he's not built for man to man, his FT% has always been surprisingly less than ideal, hasn't stepped up in REB or AST.

I don't know. I think he is what he is at the high major level and can go down a level, be the guy, and have a long career in Europe. I could be way off, but that's my take.

Re: Jalen - I believe what you're saying. Maybe they'll choose to have him in as a PWO. I just think a scholarship spot will go elsewhere.

Maybe Souare is something in practice, but you kinda nail the thesis. There are no unknowns in today's college hoops. You're either productive now or you're gonna get recruited over by someone coming out of the portal who is.

It can all go wonky, so who knows. I'm just reading tea leaves from what I see out there and making things up as I go along.

Just wanted to provide a response to your well thought out response. Appreciate you taking the time.

 

[dtm1997]

Do we know Forrest is a scholarship player?

We don't know if he is or isn't.

 

[Connell62]

Maybe Souare is something in practice, but you kinda nail the thesis. There are no unknowns in today's college hoops. You're either productive now or you're gonna get recruited over by someone coming out of the portal who is.

Great discussion..bolded part above is key. I can’t remember where I saw it or who said it, but when people are dropping big bags, and it sounds like some of donors are, people want to see a return.

If a kid isn’t developing or putting in the work, they’re likely to be encouraged to move on. Some call it being processed. That’s the nature of the game today (unfortunately).

Coaches - most of them at least - are under extreme pressure to win and win soon. Look no further than this board.

 

[orientalnc]

Been bouncing this concept around in my head for a while. I'm all for supporting our student-athletes, but with NIL, it's now a performance driven enterprise. Especially when you need about $1.5MM-$2MM minimum to compete at the High Major level.

I don't get worried about game to game this season. This week sucked, but I'm not yet worried about it's impact on the long-term view.

With that said, here are my initial thoughts on how roster management may unfold in the off-season.

Out of eligibility:
Kyle Sturdivant
Tyzhaun Claude

Transfer Out:
Deebo Coleman (I think he might enjoy a fresh start, possibly at a lower level)

Processed:
Amaree Abram (Writing appears to be on the wall)
Ebenezer Dowouna (Just doesn't bring enough to the table)
Ibrahim Souare (Pretty obvious spot to upgrade talent)

Too early to tell:
Lance Terry (Could very well set up for a nice Super Senior season at GT or might just be keeping his eligibility to transfer)
Miles Kelly
Tafara Gapare (I think he stays and we try to develop him. Still too raw today)
Baye Ndongo (I think he'll end up 1 & done)
Ibrahima Sacko (Could go either way, but could be a nice developmental wing)

Staying:
Kowacie Reeves
Nait George

Incoming:
Jaeden Mustaf
Darrion Sutton
Cole Kirouac
Net net - we could easily see 6+ spots turn over this year with 3 already filled. Looking forward how the talent is managed & upgraded.

Thanks. I mostly agree with this. A couple of points:

100% agree that Abram and Dowouna are gone after this year. I thought Abram might leave during the holiday break.

Kelly is not going to be a draft pick unless he goes off the charts really soon. Transfer? Maybe, but how does that help him?

Deebo is an odd mix of potential and disappointment. He's a decent player, but never imposed his game at any time. He just takes what comes. Fair defensive player, but lacks quickness. Transferring to a mid-major is possible, but how does that help him? Fresh start, perhaps. But he would still have the same skills and weaknesses.

Our international players (Ndongo, Sacko, George, Souare) who might stay are in a unique situation. They could lose their visas if they accept NIL and basically forfeit what they worked hard to achieve. Ndongo might be one & done, but where does he play? He's not a 5 in the NBA and he doesn't have an NBA level game outside the paint. That said, he is not likely to be here two years from now.

CDS is still recruiting for 2024. So he clearly has plans that affect which of these guys leave the program.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I think you make some great points. You always do.

I like Deebo, but if we look at the roster, who we're recruiting, etc. does he potentially have a lesser role for us next year? I think yes is a possible answer across the 3 backcourt spots he may get minutes at.

Deebo nails some great, timely 3s reasonably often, but his defense hasn't improved, maybe he's not built for man to man, his FT% has always been surprisingly less than ideal, hasn't stepped up in REB or AST.

I don't know. I think he is what he is at the high major level and can go down a level, be the guy, and have a long career in Europe. I could be way off, but that's my take.

Re: Jalen - I believe what you're saying. Maybe they'll choose to have him in as a PWO. I just think a scholarship spot will go elsewhere.

Maybe Souare is something in practice, but you kinda nail the thesis. There are no unknowns in today's college hoops. You're either productive now or you're gonna get recruited over by someone coming out of the portal who is.

It can all go wonky, so who knows. I'm just reading tea leaves from what I see out there and making things up as I go along.

Just wanted to provide a response to your well thought out response. Appreciate you taking the time.

Thoughtful response.

I’m ignorant about European bb. Do they allow zone defense?

Struggling to learn how to play man to man is going to be a problem for any player if they want to play for Stoudamire and/or go pro.

 

[gte447f]

Pastner was an anomaly with not only the amount of zone defense that his teams ran, but also some of the zone schemes they ran, particularly the “amoeba” 1-3-1 zone. Most teams play man to man defense most of the time. I don’t see that CDS is doing anything particularly unique or different on defense that should be difficult for the players in the least.

 

[Steverc]

Pastner was an anomaly with not only the amount of zone defense that his teams ran, but also some of the zone schemes they ran, particularly the “amoeba” 1-3-1 zone. Most teams play man to man defense most of the time. I don’t see that CDS is doing anything particularly unique or different on defense that should be difficult for the players in the least.

Agreed. Even I can explain man-to-man defense. Guard the guy you are assigned to guard and box him out when a shot is taken.

 

[MtnWasp]

Pastner strived to engineer a schematic advantage. He was an X's & O's guy. Stoudamire is fundamentally different. Our new coach is all about "want to." He wants a roster of guys who want it at least as much as the competition. He is recruiting long rangy athletes who have big upside on the defensive end. But in terms of what he spends his time preaching a program identity, it is about competitive toughness and "want to."

The last two games we have seen two teams, not highly rated, come in to our place and snatch our lunch money. So, we're not there yet.

 

[LargeFO]

Baye isn't on '24 or '25 mock drafts I see. Not the end-all-be-all, but just interesting data point.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Agreed. Even I can explain man-to-man defense. Guard the guy you are assigned to guard and box him out when a shot is taken.

Not all players have good horizontal movement or even decent on ball defense capabilities. Our PGs seem especially poor at defending ball handlers, which is not good. The break down at the point of attack leads to easy layups by the opposing team's big man or wide open threes. This team needs a stopper at the point who can stay in front of the other team's ball handler and fight through picks. No, the defense is not complex, but we do not have the players to defend man to man well.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Thanks. I mostly agree with this. A couple of points:

100% agree that Abram and Dowouna are gone after this year. I thought Abram might leave during the holiday break.

Kelly is not going to be a draft pick unless he goes off the charts really soon. Transfer? Maybe, but how does that help him?

Deebo is an odd mix of potential and disappointment. He's a decent player, but never imposed his game at any time. He just takes what comes. Fair defensive player, but lacks quickness. Transferring to a mid-major is possible, but how does that help him? Fresh start, perhaps. But he would still have the same skills and weaknesses.

Our international players (Ndongo, Sacko, George, Souare) who might stay are in a unique situation. They could lose their visas if they accept NIL and basically forfeit what they worked hard to achieve. Ndongo might be one & done, but where does he play? He's not a 5 in the NBA and he doesn't have an NBA level game outside the paint. That said, he is not likely to be here two years from now.

CDS is still recruiting for 2024. So he clearly has plans that affect which of these guys leave the program.

I was expecting significant improvement in Deebo's game this season, which has not materialized. A few things... He looks slow and unathletic. He gets very little elevation on his jumper. He is not quick. He cannot get separation or space to get the good looks he needs to be the impact player we need him to be. Unless he can transform his body and increase his athleticism, he is probably at best a role bench player.

 

[Peacone36]

Great discussion..bolded part above is key. I can’t remember where I saw it or who said it, but when people are dropping big bags, and it sounds like some of donors are, people want to see a return.

If a kid isn’t developing or putting in the work, they’re likely to be encouraged to move on. Some call it being processed. That’s the nature of the game today (unfortunately).

Coaches - most of them at least - are under extreme pressure to win and win soon. Look no further than this board.

While it may be an unfortunate situation at the time and a shot to the pride, it does produce happy endings as well. Drew Pember would be the most recent example that I can think of.

 

[orientalnc]

I was expecting significant improvement in Deebo's game this, which has not materialized. Two things... He looks slow and unathletic. He gets very little elevation on his jumper. He us not quick. He cannot get separation or space to get the good looks he needs to be the impact player we need him to be. Unless he can transform his body and increase his athleticism, he is probably at best a role bench player.

My wife says Coleman is pudgy. Pudgy guys are rarely great athletes.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I can see Baye staying. Especially if our record is as bad as I think it will be. He might not get the exposure to draw NBA interest with no one watching our games.

Even if he does stay, I do think we will see a massive turnover in roster. I think either Baye or Kelly might stay or go, but Deebo, Dowouna, Abram and a couple others are probably gone. I think CDS is looking for players with skill, athleticism, toughness and the will to win. Our current roster seems lack in this.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Agreed. Even I can explain man-to-man defense. Guard the guy you are assigned to guard and box him out when a shot is taken.

Yeah, but do you switch off on pick & roll, crash a screen, slack off to help a brother in the paint….? So complicated

 

[GaTech4ever]

Bacot supposedly getting 500k $ NIL at UNC. May not be NBA draft pick. Not a great outside shot and more power forward size.

It’s much more than $500k I believe

 

[Root4GT]

Not all players have good horizontal movement or even decent on ball defense capabilities. Our PGs seem especially poor at defending ball handlers, which is not good. The break down at the point of attack leads to easy layups by the opposing team's big man or wide open threes. This team needs a stopper at the point who can stay in front of the other team's ball handler and fight through picks. No, the defense is not complex, but we do not have the players to defend man to man well.

Bingo. Frankly most teams we play have multiple guys who can break down average defenders. We simply have no one on the roster who are really good on ball defenders right now. George may become one in a couple of years. He needs to get stronger. His instincts are good and he has reasonable quickness, just not ready for that role right now. Sadly no one else can fill the role either.

 

[684Bee]

Pastner strived to engineer a schematic advantage. He was an X's & O's guy. Stoudamire is fundamentally different. Our new coach is all about "want to." He wants a roster of guys who want it at least as much as the competition. He is recruiting long rangy athletes who have big upside on the defensive end. But in terms of what he spends his time preaching a program identity, it is about competitive toughness and "want to."

The last two games we have seen two teams, not highly rated, come in to our place and snatch our lunch money. So, we're not there yet.

I don’t think it’s due to our lack of want to. We just don’t have the horses yet.