Armchair analysis has the problem about frankly not understanding what the heck is going on, but I’m gonna try it anyway.
If you’re a startup and you’re trying something new or innovative, one of the hardest things to figure out is when to “pivot” and when not to. Pivoting can range from making minor adjustments to what your plan is, to major adjustments, to wholesale starting over.
One thing that makes it hard is trying to figure out when to push ahead harder because “we’re smart, we can make this work with more brains or more effort” vs “it’s time to make a small change” vs “it’s time to make a big change.
Collins is not running an innovative offense. He’s not running an innovative defense. What he is trying to do is innovate in “culture” and that shows up in recruiting, training, practice, and on gameday. He’s trying to attract and develop a winning football team through fun and positive feedback. Some of that is enthusiastic 5 am workout sessions. Some of it is DJs at practice. Some of that is the Juice Crew and Money Down. Some of that is the constant use of phrases like “high level”.
He gets players to aspire to be their best and put all their energy into being their best and giving maximum effort. In that, I think he’s been successful.
The problem is, players are blowing coverages and missing blocks with high energy. They’re unfocused and undirected and making fundamental mistakes. Players are bought in on playing at 100%, but they’re freelancing instead of following the system and doing their assignments; they’re trying to strip the ball instead of making a tackle; they’re trying to bring down a player with a big hit instead of wrapping up and gang tackling; they’re trying to make up for their teammate’s errors and getting out of position.
We are “all gas, no brakes, and not much steering”.
Collins keeps giving the players a big jolt of confidence, and it backfires sometimes. They walked into the Citadel game a couple of years ago, and were overconfident. Probably the same thing against NIU and Syracuse and a lot of other games.
He needed to make a pivot in year 1, but he didn’t “have his players yet”. He needed to pivot in year 2, but there was COVID and it disrupted his system, and he still didn’t have his players yet. It’s year 3, and he should have his players by now. He really does have his players by now. But Stansbury is saying that we need to get in more talent.
We have as much or more talent that Wake or BC or Pitt or UVA or VT. Outside of FSU, Miami, Clemson, and UNC, our guys should match up favorably against our opponents. I get that the recruiting rankings are kinda bogus, but if you look at the 247 “talent composite”, we’re 5th in the ACC and we’re 33rd in the country. That’s enough to have a winning conference record and go to a good bowl, and be “getting votes” in the top 25.
By the way, the teams leading the ACC in the “talent composite” are not having good years. Possibly FSU is not below their preseason expectations, but that’s only because they had massively lowered expectations. Clemson, UNC, and Miami are definitely below their preseason top 25 expectations.
When things go wrong, there’s no “one problem”. Problems come in bunches, and I’m just writing about one of them.
Confidently giving 110% in the wrong way isn’t going to win you many games. Getting more athletic players confidently giving 110% will get us to a Miami Hurricanes level of going 6-6 with a top 15 recruiting class.
In the past, I’ve called it “attention to detail”, but there needs to be a pivot to doing the basics before trying to do the fancy stuff. In Collins’ system, I don’t know if that’s a substantial adjustment or a major overhaul or a complete abandonment, though.
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@bke1984 I found the “10 points” comment to be ridiculous. My hope is for good coaching to make a positive 2 point swing. If you’ve fallen to needing a 10 point swing, you’re in the ditch with your car on fire.
