Looking ahead to Fall Camp - Offense

[Eric]

It's funny how assumptions are being trashed in this thread.

What assumptions?

 

[knox]

What assumptions?

Assuming we were in third in long more last year tha previous years then saying it was a higher percentage and being wrong both times.

 

[Boomergump]

Attempts at 3rd and 7+
2008 75
2009 78
2010 72
2011 63
2012 74
2013 71

Wow. Well 2009 and 2012 we played an extra game so those are a little skewed. In any case, I am surprised. I definitely had the feeling we were worse last year than any other. Thanks 87.

I guess I should have read the rest of the thread. I like the percent data. It is probably more meaningful. Still, It wasn't as bad as I thought.

 

[danny daniel]

Wow. Well 2009 and 2012 we played an extra game so those are a little skewed. In any case, I am surprised. I definitely had the feeling we were worse last year than any other. Thanks 87.

I guess I should have read the rest of the thread. I like the percent data. It is probably more meaningful. Still, It wasn't as bad as I thought.

I think that some of us thought that we "had the feeling we were worse last year" or "it seemed we did not have much chance on third and long" because of observing and anticipating three things which continually happened, or we expected to happen: (1) poor pass blocking protection (2) passer in desperation slinging the ball falling backward (3) the passer when forced to run did not seem to be committed to take the HIT to get to the sticks. The original remark made no assumptions about comparisons to any other year. IMO those three issues can be improved significantly and at least we will have a feeling of a better chance at third and long this coming season.

 

[AE 87]

The data I cited was for all games. I haven't looked at data for just FBS or wins vs losses. Here's another stat that came available from the previous data, 3rd downs as percent of all plays. So, for a team that only gets punts or 1st downs after 3rd downs, 3rd downs would be about 33% of their plays. For a team that always gets first downs or scores on 1st or 2nd down plays, 3rd downs would be 0% of their plays. While this stat ignores the impact of turnovers, I think it's pretty interesting. Last year, 16.6% of FSU's Off plays and 22.1% of their D plays were 3rd downs. For Bama, it was 17.8% and 22.8%.

Year ... 3rd% Off ... 3rd% Def
2008 ... 20% ............ 22.31
2009 ... 20.7% ......... 20.82
2010 ... 19.9% .......... 20.14
2011 ... 20.6% .......... 20.8%
2012 ... 19.5% ........... 19.9%
2013 ... 19.1% ........... 19.8%

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

You are correct; we don't need to throw more. We need to throw more effectively, though. Having more competent receivers will make it easier when we do plan to throw, so the defenses can't cheat.

One of the paradoxes of life: we need to be very effective running the football in order to be more efficient when we pass the football. We have to have success running the ball so that we decide when we pass. This offense (and this coach) is better when we pass only when WE CHOOSE, and not when forced to by the defense or by the score.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

I think there's something to be said for wanting to see something through, especially a commitment such as playing college football. Also it's not like these guys have never done anything in their career- pretty much they have all had a big game or big plays in their career that I bet in the back of their minds doesn't feel like forever ago.

Why wouldn't they want to finish their last season with the brothers they came in with? Too much position depth doesn't have be a valid reason to quit in your last season playing at GT, even if it has been done before. I was pretty surprised people on here were insinuating Bostic and/or Zenon were just gonna give it up this offseason. Obviously this late it would still really really surprise me if they did.

Absolutely, all your reasons. Another factor may be that most of the A backs probably see themselves as just as good as the other four or five. They can honestly evaluate that their potential to play is real. And guys like Zenon, Bostic, and even Snoddy are guys that have the real possibility of getting that one special block or one missed defensive assignment, and poof! they are gone to the house. It might be wishful thinking, but would anyone be dumbfounded if, by the end of the year, Bostic or even Snoddy had scored three or four times from 50 + yards? Remember, the fourth guy in the backfield is another burner that defenses have to account for. Justin and Bostic approaching the corner in space is a very daunting proposition if you are the defender.

 

[GT Man]

Every offense (and every coach) is better when they pass only when THEY CHOOSE, and not when forced to by the defense or by the score.

fify

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

fify

Gracias, mi amigo.

 

[alaguy]

IMO the O surprise will be third down efficiency. Last year we seemed to have very little chance on third and long. Thomas can be a real duel threat and I think he will deliver in the clutch much more so than our O in the recent past. I also believe Byerly can deliver those tough yards in short yardage needs. I hope CPJ takes advantage of the skills of both QBs. Home run plays are more likely from Thomas and the WRs. Grind out will come from the backs and I hope a lot of screens to Smelter. I predict O improvement!

As to 3rd and long-I predict we will see the QB draw as a MAINSTAY of our offense.

 

[vamosjackets]

fify

I agree with that sentiment. But... I am a huge fan of this offense, but I will admit that one of the main weaknesses is the ability to pass in obvious passing situations. Granted, most offense are going to be worse than normal in those circumstances, but it is going to be an even bigger deal in our offense. The main reason for this is just that we're not built that way. Our QB is going to be a better runner than passer. Our offensive line are going to be better run blockers than pass blockers. Our WR's aren't really affected. And finally, our practice reps are going to be more devoted to the things our offense is built for. Some QB's thrive passing when the pressure is on (Hamilton, Montana, Brady, etc) ... Our QB's thrive in other ways. Our QB needs to thrive in making reads when the pressure is on. And, our QB needs to thrive in getting tough yards with his legs, among other athletic things. And, if he can thrive in throwing too ... we'll be in the promised land.

BUT, on the other side of that coin, passing in our offense, when it's not an obvious passing situation, is often much MORE effective than in other offenses - thus our normally higher ypa, ypc, and high pass efficiency numbers. So, it's a give and take. As long as our defense is keeping us in the game, we can stay in our gameplan anyway, and we can run or pass the ball on 3rd and 8 and still pick up the first at just as good of a rate as a passing team.

Your strengths and weaknesses often come from the same place.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

In regards to Perkins, I felt that he had a good season last year when the ball was in his hands, albeit it was only a handful of times. What roadblock is Perkins facing for first string? Is he not a polished blocker or could his shoulder be a problem still that he only can get in a handful of times a game?

I remembered the same. Just checked Perkins stats and he averaged 8.8 ypc on 13 carries. http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/player/255/1031930/index.html

But that doesn't take blocking and fumbles into account.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Third down is hard to convert for ALL teams. GT was 4th in the country last year with a 51.4% conversion rate. http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category25/sort01.html

Looking at 3rd and 10+ yards, we converted 3 of 13 21 times. This number of conversions tied for 12th most in the country! And was the 11th highest % of conversions at 24%.

I was going to say it was because of our large number of short third downs inherent to our O. But then I looked at how we ranked in 2012 to 2008 --31st, 2nd, 56th, 2nd and 84th. So it's not just the style of offense. But then I looked at the breakdown of plays which were 3rd and 1-3 or 4-6 or 7-9 or 10+ yards and the situation is a bit more complex. I have more to think about later .....

 

[awbuzz]

Impressive work Nuke...
.thanks for doing it.

 

[ramblinvak]

Third down is hard to convert for ALL teams. GT was 4th in the country last year with a 51.4% conversion rate. http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category25/sort01.html

Looking at 3rd and 10+ yards, we converted 3 of 13 21 times. This number of conversions tied for 12th most in the country! And was the 11th highest % of conversions at 24%.

I was going to say it was because of our large number of short third downs inherent to our O. But then I looked at how we ranked in 2012 to 2008 --31st, 2nd, 56th, 2nd and 84th. So it's not just the style of offense. But then I looked at the breakdown of plays which were 3rd and 1-3 or 4-6 or 7-9 or 10+ yards and the situation is a bit more complex. I have more to think about later .....

I would like to call our success last year on 3rd and long the "Godhigh Affect"

 

[ramblinvak]

I remembered the same. Just checked Perkins stats and he averaged 8.8 ypc on 13 carries. http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/player/255/1031930/index.html

But that doesn't take blocking and fumbles into account.

I can't really speak to his blocking, but I don't recall him losing any major fumbles last year; I could be wrong though. 13 carries definitely is not enough with his talent level. Wonder if he is in the CPJ doghouse or something...

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I can't really speak to his blocking, but I don't recall him losing any major fumbles last year; I could be wrong though. 13 carries definitely is not enough with his talent level. Wonder if he is in the CPJ doghouse or something...

I don't remember any fumbles either. But there has to be a good reason. He had good stats against good teams too. And the stats weren't all from one or two runs.

I wish they kept fumble stats by player somewhere ...... any one know a source?

 

[danny daniel]

As to 3rd and long-I predict we will see the QB draw as a MAINSTAY of our offense.

I certainly hope so!

I don't remember any fumbles either. But there has to be a good reason. He had good stats against good teams too. And the stats weren't all from one or two runs.

I wish they kept fumble stats by player somewhere ...... any one know a source?

I believe Perkins got whacked pretty good on a play against Clemson and lost a fumble on a sweep right. I agree that he ran well in the few opportunities he had.