King Injury Factual Updates

[RamblinRed]

I’m thinking you think we lose, Red?

I think that is the most likely outcome. But you play the games for a reason.
Games can be strange. The game against UNC in MBS was one of those.
Miami is hardly unbeatable but it would be shocking to beat them unless you score alot of points. Their lowest scoring game of the season was against FSU - 36 points, and they only had 8 possessions in that game. They scored on 7 of them, but FSU held them to FG's 3 times.

It also feels like Miami just sort of flicks a switch in the 2nd half of games alot. We certainly can't have a game like most of our where we don't score for large stretches of the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

 

[RamblinRed]

Tech is #39 in the country in scoring defense, allowing 21.78 points per game:

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Our scoring defense has been alot better than last year.
Improved by over a TD.

Do keep in mind that against power conference teams GT has allowed 26 ppg (not all of that is on the defense).
Miami has the #1 scoring offense in the country. The highest ranked we have seen so far has been ND at #18 who scores 11 less points per game.
I do not expect to hold them to under 30. I think we can hold them under 40.
On the other side of the ball our scoring offense is 72nd in the country.

 

[bobongo]

Our scoring defense has been alot better than last year.
Improved by over a TD.

Do keep in mind that against power conference teams GT has allowed 26 ppg (not all of that is on the defense).
Miami has the #1 scoring offense in the country. The highest ranked we have seen so far has been ND at #18 who scores 11 less points per game.
I do not expect to hold them to under 30. I think we can hold them under 40.
On the other side of the ball our scoring offense is 72nd in the country.

Gonna be hard to win Saturday, but it will help that it's Homecoming. Gotta get this offense moving.

 

[57jacket]

I think that is the most likely outcome. But you play the games for a reason.
Games can be strange. The game against UNC in MBS was one of those.
Miami is hardly unbeatable but it would be shocking to beat them unless you score alot of points. Their lowest scoring game of the season was against FSU - 36 points, and they only had 8 possessions in that game. They scored on 7 of them, but FSU held them to FG's 3 times.

It also feels like Miami just sort of flicks a switch in the 2nd half of games alot. We certainly can't have a game like most of our where we don't score for large stretches of the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Good post. We need 2-3 turnovers to stay close.

 

[stinger78]

Good post. We need 2-3 turnovers to stay close.

We need a healthy Haynes King, Jamal Haynes, and Malik Rutherford to stay close.

 

[RonJohn]

The spread the line opened at and the movement makes me think Vegas knows something we don't. I think HK is back baby

The ONLY purpose of the spread is to even out the money. They don't change the spread with information, they change the spread when more people are putting money on one side. Too many people think that the casinos gamble. They do not gamble, they move a lot of money and take the vig. If I could take millions of dollars from one group of people, give it to a different group of people, and keep 5% I would do that too.

 

[stinger78]

I've never understood the old "he will be rusty" line when someone returns from injury. To me it sounds like someone making excuses in case he doesn't play well. I mean he has been playing quarterback his whole life. Just because he hasn't played in a few weeks I doubt he has forgotten how to play his position. In addition, he will have gotten plenty of reps in practice before he plays. If he is going to be rusty would't that show up in practice as well? And if he looks bad in practice why would the coach decide to start and play him? That would seem to indicate that he is not ready to play and any coach worth a damn would not play him.

He might not be back to game speed for a possession or two, but there are ways to help him there by the play calling.

 

[TampaBuzz]

We need a healthy Haynes King, Jamal Haynes, and Malik Rutherford to stay close.

Kyle Efford

 

[swampsting]

Kyle Efford

If I'm Miami, I put a RB in motion and make Efford cover him every time. Wheels, flares, anything to get a RB matched up on Efford in pass coverage.
And if we blitz Efford, that RB is going to be the hot route every time.
The Canes have the best offense - in terms of points and yards per game - in the nation. We'll need much more than a healthy Efford.

 

[TooTall]

Efford is our clean-up guy. Whenever the first man to the ball hits the ball carrier, Efford is close behind to finish the tackle, either as an assist or solo. He is the true definition of a "Ball Hawk". He is our most important defensive piece.

 

[bigrabbit]

The ONLY purpose of the spread is to even out the money. They don't change the spread with information, they change the spread when more people are putting money on one side. Too many people think that the casinos gamble. They do not gamble, they move a lot of money and take the vig. If I could take millions of dollars from one group of people, give it to a different group of people, and keep 5% I would do that too.

Definitely how it works, I just figured enough active gamblers might have somehow heard the same info I’ve heard, and that was shifting the spread.

 

[iceeater1969]

Efford is our clean-up guy. Whenever the first man to the ball hits the ball carrier, Efford is close behind to finish the tackle, either as an assist or solo. He is the true definition of a "Ball Hawk". He is our most important defensive piece.

On run plays he is solid.
On pass plays he is not so good at tight coversge of te or rb. The other lb are not good either.

The top hiesman candidate is miami qb.

Can we play extra safety to shadow Restropo (sic) ?

 

[MWBATL]

Can we play 13 on defense? It would help….

 

[cpf2001]

Can we play 13 on defense? It would help….

You can’t give up a TD if you take a penalty and give up half the distance to the goal every time. That’s math.

 

[AugustaSwarm]

You can’t give up a TD if you take a penalty and give up half the distance to the goal every time. That’s math.

If Santucci doesn't work out or gets poached, I nominate @cpf2001 for the new DC. Absolutely brilliant tactician!

 

[Bogey]

The ONLY purpose of the spread is to even out the money. They don't change the spread with information, they change the spread when more people are putting money on one side. Too many people think that the casinos gamble. They do not gamble, they move a lot of money and take the vig. If I could take millions of dollars from one group of people, give it to a different group of people, and keep 5% I would do that too.

We all know that. Big bettors/gamblers generally know more than the average fan and how they are currently betting is what moves the spread and is why some place value on how it moves.

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

You can’t give up a TD if you take a penalty and give up half the distance to the goal every time. That’s math.

Plus, you'll wear out the opposing offense by forcing them to keep running plays trying to score

 

[RonJohn]

We all know that. Big bettors/gamblers generally know more than the average fan and how they are currently betting is what moves the spread and is why some place value on how it moves.

I have talked to people who believe that Vegas casinos have super smart people in a room somewhere who are extremely accurate in predicting game scores.

Your belief is a mythical also. There are people who know more about every game and are able to beat the line every time? What do they do, put spies in every college football program? Do head coaches work with them for a cut? People who gamble like to believe that they somehow have an edge, or that there is someone out there with mythical powers who can predict the future that they can follow. In reality, it is much more boring. The casinos have historical data that allows them to put out the early lines. "Sharps" might influence that line up or down, but overall from the casino's standpoint it is all about having even betting. People who consider themselves sharps still only win slightly more than 50% of the time. The ads on the radio about "locks" and hitting 80-90 percent of bets are all just like old Saturday night get-rich-quick infomercials.

 

[Bogey]

I have talked to people who believe that Vegas casinos have super smart people in a room somewhere who are extremely accurate in predicting game scores.

Your belief is a mythical also. There are people who know more about every game and are able to beat the line every time? What do they do, put spies in every college football program? Do head coaches work with them for a cut? People who gamble like to believe that they somehow have an edge, or that there is someone out there with mythical powers who can predict the future that they can follow. In reality, it is much more boring. The casinos have historical data that allows them to put out the early lines. "Sharps" might influence that line up or down, but overall from the casino's standpoint it is all about having even betting. People who consider themselves sharps still only win slightly more than 50% of the time. The ads on the radio about "locks" and hitting 80-90 percent of bets are all just like old Saturday night get-rich-quick infomercials.

When the bets move significantly either way off 50% of the bets being on both teams, the spread moves to protect the bookies' margin. Whether the bettors are accurate or not matters only to persons who watch how the spread moves. They believe it matters. No big deal.

 

[Thwg777]

The ONLY purpose of the spread is to even out the money. They don't change the spread with information, they change the spread when more people are putting money on one side. Too many people think that the casinos gamble. They do not gamble, they move a lot of money and take the vig. If I could take millions of dollars from one group of people, give it to a different group of people, and keep 5% I would do that too.

I agree that attracting even money on both sides guarantees a profit. But in reality, there are plenty of ‘lopsided’ betting matchups. Books may adjust the line in an effort to ‘balance’ action by drawing new money on the other side.

If they keep the line unchanged, they risk exposure on one side, but if they move the line (potentially significantly), they risk arbitrage on the other side and even more exposure on middling opportunities.

In terms of how to best manage risk, that usually comes into play by reviewing who is taking the action. But they will absolutely take risks from time to time since exposure is seldom ever truly balanced.

The fact that nearly all the handle (at least at fanduel) is on Miami and the line is unchanged - actually slightly down from 11.5 to 10.5, I interpret that as they have respected action on GT and are willing to take the risk.

Edited to add, they absolutely change the spread with new information. This happens all the time. In football, a perfectly healthy QB that gets hurt right before a game will adjust the spread. In baseball, lines are very sensitive to starting pitchers… a solid pitcher that gets announced as not starting will affect the line. These will look like step changes - and are not based on action. They’re based on algorithms of how much each player is expected to contribute to the outcome.