King Injury Factual Updates

[bobongo]

Edited to add, they absolutely change the spread with new information. This happens all the time. In football, a perfectly healthy QB that gets hurt right before a game will adjust the spread. In baseball, lines are very sensitive to starting pitchers… a solid pitcher that gets announced as not starting will affect the line. These will look like step changes - and are not based on action. They’re based on algorithms of how much each player is expected to contribute to the outcome.

They will adjust the line upon new information in anticipation of a change in the incoming bets - because the betting public has the same information and will adjust their bets accordingly.

 

[Thwg777]

They will adjust the line upon new information in anticipation of a change in the incoming bets - because the betting public has the same information and will adjust their bets accordingly.

I agree. Just the order for big news is almost always line movement first. I don’t think it’s materially different from stock trading algorithms that are faster to the draw than regular people reading the news.

I’ve never taken sports betting too seriously. It’s brutal grind on thin margins to make money. The people that are successful (not many), have usually a few tenants in common… forget being a ‘fan’ of any given team, ability to create sophisticated models that find subtle edges on how teams may matchup that often defies ‘public’ opinion, and access to a plethora of sports books to always find the best line at extremely low vig.

 

[RonJohn]

My statement that they do not adjust lines based on "information" was probably poorly stated. They have algorithms that project where the money will be placed. If the algorithm shows that some new information will move the betting significantly, they will change it.

I was responding to a post about the lines moving towards GT must mean that the betting sites and casinos had some top-secret information about King's availability. They do not know more than the general public. They might get information from reporters before it is published. Their systems might be monitoring all of the news and social media sites. However, there is no back room of cigar smoking people who have unlimited access to all college football information. Also, there are no rooms of people and computers that can accurately predict the future outcome of all games. Casinos and betting sites make gambling appear to be a lot more than it is, to get more people to participate. They however are run like boring businesses with predictable revenue and profits.

 

[Thwg777]

Apologies RonJohn if I took your statements out of context. I agree with your points. It’s very corporatized and a lot duller than portrayed.

The closest I ever got to true inside stuff was first hand reports of MLB players partying way too hard out of town before an afternoon game. Took the other team and won easy. But that was way before everyone had a computer in their pocket, hooked up to the world 24/7.