Is it Possible

[upwgdrb]

Not to be trite, but your beliefs are wrong. Performance in close games is largely a function of luck. The best teams aren't magically better in close games; they just play fewer of them.

Not a believer in luck, you make you own luck by having coaches that:

Can analyze and exploit the other team's weakness and or
Coach their players to execute better.

There are a few teams with more talent in the college game that can truly out talent their opponents but most are about equal after the top 8 or so. Between this and #50 Coaching makes the difference.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

There are more than 8 programs that "should" be able to out talent 80% of their schedules...maybe closer to 20.

 

[JorgeJonas]

Not a believer in luck, you make you own luck by having coaches that:

Can analyze and exploit the other team's weakness and or
Coach their players to execute better.

There are a few teams with more talent in the college game that can truly out talent their opponents but most are about equal after the top 8 or so. Between this and #50 Coaching makes the difference.

That's a cool cliché, but it's silly. There is no world in which this isn't luck.

 

[B Lifsey]

That's a cool cliché, but it's silly. There is no world in which this isn't luck.

A lot of luck in that play but also a lot of credit to players for staying alert and believing that something good might happen. That effort word again...

 

[Sideways]

I'm a CPJ fan and the thing that disappoints me is that he didn't seem to step in and "help" with the OL issues seemingly as it appeared that proper instruction was lacking. These are smart young men so I have a hard time believing they can't comprehend the instructions they were given.

I am beginning to believe that the O Line problems go far deeper than coaching or injuries or inexperience. They are a symptom of a fatal malady known as "poor recruiting". The symptoms are inadequate depth, poor leadership from seniors, and are nearly always fatal to the patient unless remedied by a tonic common to successful coaches known as "getting your butt on the recruiting trail and beating the bushes for guys that want to play football and not sit around smoking dope". Just my two cents.

 

[RonJohn]

Can you separate the quality of the HC's performance from the won-loss record?

In the NFL you cannot. The only thing the coach is responsible for is wins.

In high school, you definitely can. They coach has to teach. The coach has no control over who the players are. Many times the coach has to be the only father figure in some of the boys lives. In my opinion, a high school coach teaching kids about life is much more important than winning football games.

I college, it is a mixture. The coach recruits players and decides which ones he wants on the team. The coach is responsible for the academic performance of his players. The coach has to take responsibility for the off the field actions of his players.(Fisher has taken a lot of heat over the last couple of years for boneheaded actions by some of the FSU players) The public perception of the integrity of the program and the institution are clearly affected by the HC.

Even in high school and college, you can judge the HC's "football" performance solely based on the win-loss record. I don't agree with judging a college coach's performance based solely on football. I definitely don't agree with judging a high school coach's performance based solely on football.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I am beginning to believe that the O Line problems go far deeper than coaching or injuries or inexperience. They are a symptom of a fatal malady known as "poor recruiting". The symptoms are inadequate depth, poor leadership from seniors, and are nearly always fatal to the patient unless remedied by a tonic common to successful coaches known as "getting your butt on the recruiting trail and beating the bushes for guys that want to play football and not sit around smoking dope". Just my two cents.

I thought we've done well recruiting OL lately.

 

[FatPat]

To turn the tide from the coaches- think about this-- you have a starter that has to travel to an away game, the Saturday of the game is when the class, put in groups, will go to another college and do a debate. The proffessor ask him, "can you just miss the game". After the appropriate response he is told the following week he needs to write a paper because he could not make the debate!! My opinion- PJ has done wonders with what he is up against. His school support has improved over the years- but, still is not even of a high school level as of now- much less a factory!

 

[Sideways]

There are more than 8 programs that "should" be able to out talent 80% of their schedules...maybe closer to 20.

You are speaking of the "factories". Alabama, Georgia, Florida, FSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, USCw, LSU, Notre Dame, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and the newest member long time wanna be, Clemson. Maybe others and some of those listed above are debatable but yes, it is about 15 or so with some dropping out e.g. Texas from time to time and others taking their place. It is a coveted designation, no?

 

[Sideways]

I thought we've done well recruiting OL lately.

Your point about recent recruiting is well taken but offensive line along with quarterback are the two positions most notorious for being difficult to forecast success based upon high school. At any rate, flopping on the ground and blocking matador style is not what blocking is about on any level.

 

[Skeptic]

Yes, if he coaches players to their ability. It's all he can ask of them. Recruiting, injuries, luck, what have you, aside: did the players he put on the field perform as well as they could? I would feel a lot better about Georgia Saturday had they not, in the 12th game of the season, committed horrendous mistakes. Putting individuals and personalities aside, a good coach can have a bad record in a good year of coaching.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Texas should always be on that list....not so much Mich St though they are on a very good run right now

 

[JorgeJonas]

I thought we've done well recruiting OL lately.

Lost two commits today.

 

[iceeater1969]

I am beginning to believe that the O Line problems go far deeper than coaching or injuries or inexperience. They are a symptom of a fatal malady known as "poor recruiting". The symptoms are inadequate depth, poor leadership from seniors, and are nearly always fatal to the patient unless remedied by a tonic common to successful coaches known as "getting your butt on the recruiting trail and beating the bushes for guys that want to play football and not sit around smoking dope". Just my two cents.

My son coaches in texas- two of his friends - one won state champs 4a 2014 another playing this week in semi finals. Took them all (plus 5 others to shrevport bowl - they will help tech if we recruit.
Back in 10 Recruiter said got to win recruiting in ga.

I will see if they are looking. After a few weeks will advise. Tech is well respected outside of ga.

To quote what my coaching son says " most kids in small town east Texas and north la will do anything to get out. The idea they want play ball and go back home to stay a small shrinking town is no longer valid.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

While I am not a believer in "luck," per se, I am a believer in stats. Stats bear out that teams usually finish .500 or so in one TD games. (8 point differential) Vegas can realistically predict regression to mean based off your record in those games. For instance, in 2009 we went 5-1 in those games, IIRC. We then had a couple of years where we lost a lot more one possession games than we won. In 2014, we were 3-3 in those games. This year, we were 1-6 in those games. Regression to the mean would be an improvement for us next year. So yes, I think you can separate a coach from the W-L record, to a degree. This year was obviously a very bad year, but I think we'll see much improvement next year.

 

[Skeptic]

While I am not a believer in "luck," per se, I am a believer in stats. Stats bear out that teams usually finish .500 or so in one TD games. (8 point differential) Vegas can realistically predict regression to mean based off your record in those games. For instance, in 2009 we went 5-1 in those games, IIRC. We then had a couple of years where we lost a lot more one possession games than we won. In 2014, we were 3-3 in those games. This year, we were 1-6 in those games. Regression to the mean would be an improvement for us next year. So yes, I think you can separate a coach from the W-L record, to a degree. This year was obviously a very bad year, but I think we'll see much improvement next year.

Surely there is something called "luck", because it cannot be ascribed to any rational analysis. The punt lands on its nose and bounces forward into the EZ. Comes out to the 20. Lands on its nose and bounces backward to be downed at the 5. Pass bounces out of a WRs hands and into the hands of a defender who was in the wrong position, and even covering the wrong receiver. There are hundreds of examples and if it makes one feel better, call it fate. But those aren't skill-related. The real issue is counting on luck to win. Of course not. You may win because of a good bounce but don't go cashing any bonus checks betting on it.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Lost two commits today.

I'm talking about the last two classes. We got a bunch and we got the guys we wanted, for the most part.

 

[Skeptic]

Lost two commits today.

What worries me more than anything, other than both of them apparently are O-line, and we know the story there, is the effect it may have going forward. That was an ugly end to an ugly season and that could be a tough sell on the heels of the OB blowout. I assume the coaching staff is out there right now -- whatever contact the rules allow now -- shoring up commits and offers. I'd sure like to be a fly on the wall to hear the pitch. The coach or coaches who make it work ought to quit and start selling annuities to nursing home patients. Forward to February is going to be touchy.

 

[JorgeJonas]

Surely there is something called "luck", because it cannot be ascribed to any rational analysis. The punt lands on its nose and bounces forward into the EZ. Comes out to the 20. Lands on its nose and bounces backward to be downed at the 5. Pass bounces out of a WRs hands and into the hands of a defender who was in the wrong position, and even covering the wrong receiver. There are hundreds of examples and if it makes one feel better, call it fate. But those aren't skill-related. The real issue is counting on luck to win. Of course not. You may win because of a good bounce but don't go cashing any bonus checks betting on it.

I think this is the point I tried (and failed) to make. Thanks for putting it into words better than I.

 

[JorgeJonas]

What worries me more than anything, other than both of them apparently are O-line, and we know the story there, is the effect it may have going forward. That was an ugly end to an ugly season and that could be a tough sell on the heels of the OB blowout. I assume the coaching staff is out there right now -- whatever contact the rules allow now -- shoring up commits and offers. I'd sure like to be a fly on the wall to hear the pitch. The coach or coaches who make it work ought to quit and start selling annuities to nursing home patients. Forward to February is going to be touchy.

As I understand it, one of the kids decommitted (you won't believe the autocorrect suggestions I get on that non-word), and one of them we parted with because of an incident with campus PD. I certainly share your concern, but I won't allow myself to be too worried about the whims of a 17 year old. Worrying about the performances of 19 year olds has proven stressful enough!