I don't think anyone is arguing that Tech does not face some recruiting challenges. I think it's obvious that we do. The question is are those challenges the chief culprit for our current state of recruiting or is it a coach that runs a wildly unpopular offense with high school recruits and combines that with a lack of personality? Could we, with another coach, bring in recruits that are capable of running a more modern offense and getting better results than we are currently seeing?
https://n.rivals.com/search#?formValues={"sport":"Football","recruit_year":2019,"prospect_profiles.stars":{"range":"gte","number":4},"prospect_profiles.prospect_colleges.college_common_name":["Georgia Tech"],"offer_and_visit_type":["Offer"],"prospect_profiles.prospect_colleges.offer":true,"page_number":1,"page_size":100}
I think it's essential when comparing the O'Leary classes with Johnson's to look at the percentage of recruits that we HAVE offered that we ultimately close on. An offer indicates the coaching staff has vetted the academic abilities of a recruit and believes they can make the grade here. The link above is a list of 67 4 star players that we have offered this year. To this point we have not received a commitment from a single one. Honestly, looking at the projections for these players I don't see any that I would say we are likely to get. He is closing on 0% of the 4 stars he is offering. If we give Johnson the benefit of the doubt this year and say he pulls 2 4 star players out of this class, that is still only a close percentage of 3%. So for O'Leary's classes to be chalked up simply to a larger recruiting pool that was expanded due to less restrictions, he would have had to offer over 300 4 star players to get to a close percent of 3%. That just simply wasn't the case. In 07 Gailey offered just 37 4 star players but closed on 8 of them. For the argument to be effective that the tougher academic restrictions under Johnson are the chief culprit for his recruiting troubles, he would have to be closing on a higher percentage of the players he can get in here than he currently is.
I researched some other schools from around the country that either have similar recruiting classes to us under Johnson or academic restriction that are more burdensome than your standard school. I didn't review schools like FSU or Alabama because they are getting an overwhelming majority of their players from this pool and can spend more time there. A school like us just can't waste time on prospects we are more than likely not going to sign in the first place. Ultimately I don't believe that the 67 4 star players we have offered are the only academically qualified 4 star players in the nation, rather they are the only ones we spent our time on recruiting. This is where I agree a larger budget would help. Here are the number of 4 star or higher players other schools have offered that I view as similar to us in modern recruiting in results or academics.
Indiana- 93
Vanderbilt- 93
Minnesota- 77
NC State- 64
UNC -103
Stanford- 45
While our offerings of 67 4 star or higher players is lower than the 79 average offerings by these schools, can we really say that that difference is the primary cause of us not recruiting at a higher level?
On this list you will find that Stanford has offered 22 less 4 star or higher players than we have yet they have closed on numerous of them. They have established a program that has done this consistently over the past decade where before that they recruited woefully. The change came when Harbaugh changed the culture of that program and Shaw has kept it going. And before anyone talks about the diversity of majors at Stanford please stop. One thing that the O'Leary years does unequivocally prove is that the limited curriculum at Georgia Tech can be overcome with the right leadership. Our curriculum options has not shrunk over the past 18 years. Faced with the same situation Johnson is in this regard, O'Leary won one big time recruiting battle after another over the national powers.
The discussion of whether Johnson is the right coach for our program requires the understanding that whether you believe he is or not, he will never reach the full potential of what Georgia Tech can have in terms of raw talent. That fact has been made abundantly clear.
