How 'Should' Tech Do in Recruiting Rank - Analysis

[GTNavyNuke]

I did consider that, but I'm afraid that would get too circular. Suffice it to say, recruiting rankings and on the field results correlate very strongly.

As you say, everything is cross-related. But I think talent and winning are so interrelated as to be nearly cause and effect. My goal was to find variables that weren't directly tied to recruiting outcomes and see how they correlated. Appreciate the suggestion though, always open to more ideas on this.

Heck, you could use the prior year recruiting rank as an input... 'kids like to go where they'll be surrounded by other good players.' It would correlate very strongly. But, then you'd just be making a numerical tautology...

One other thought. Correlation is not causation.

I know you know that and think this is a great post. But for the example of recruiting and performance, they are highly correlated and have a positive feedback causation. I don't know how they can be statistically isolated in the real world. (There are people on here who are a lot smarter statistically than I am.)

...... On the bright side: We have seen a shocking transformation in recruiting performance here on the flats before. It just wasnt in this sport. Bobby Cremins came on campus and with out a budget hitch hiked across the country to find Joseph, John Sally, Mark Price and history was made. . By the way, there was talk of him loosing his job over spending money that wasn't there. As you say, time will tell.

I agree there is reason for hope. We also saw it in baseball. Our baseball "program" was pathetic until Jim Morris started building the program and then Danny Hall took it to another level with recruiting and results. Yes that was a while ago, but the record is in here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Tech_Yellow_Jackets_baseball What is down can go up and in football, we can go up in the rankings. Alabama can eventually only go down.

 

[stech81]

Question

What can a Head Coach do recruiting ? Home visits only talk to players on visits , make calls , I really don't know but would like to know just what they can do.

 

[Techster]

A few things I'd like to point out in this whole discussion:

The whole recruiting rankings phenomenon is only 10-15 years old. When Chan Gailey was first hired, recruiting services were in their nascent stages. There were not all these recruiting camps to scout players. Guys had to literally go to games and scour game films. It was hard to grade all the recruits because recruiting wasn't as "sexy" as it is now. Services are staffed up now. Chan's rankings early on were not an accurate indication of the talent (as I've pointed out in another thread) quite a few of the recruits were given the auto designation of 2 stars. Those 2 stars went on to have a big impact. In fact 3 of Chan's classes ended up being top 15 classes in retrospective rankings.

Let's get back to the recruiting services. One thing that we're becoming more aware of now is the "recruiting bump" phenomena were recruits are at time artificially ranked higher than they really are. CPJ has certainly benefitted from that. Those who follow recruiting can vouch for this. There's also the issue of recruiting services inflating recruiting in order to stay on the good side of football staff or fans. It exists, and everyone knows it exists: https://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/02/does_a_bama_bump_exist_in_recr.html

"Keep in mind that a lot of these recruiting websites and resources are reliant upon revenue of a fan signing up for a team site," Luginbill says. "When that's the case and you have to drive up (subscription) sales, what do you think those sites are going to do? They are going to start pumping and priming players that are committed to their school or considering their school and place them above other players because they are trying to drive subscription sales.

"Anyone who says that isn't true is full of baloney."

Last thing I'd like to touch on. This is NOT a knock on CPJ and his staff. The events with CPJ and recruiting was actually a confluence of factors that actually ended hurting GT during the last 11 years.

-First APR. Let's get that out of the way. APR is a factor, and anyone that denies it needs to leave the discussion. That means GT can't take chances on some of the guys we probably would have during the O'Leary years.

-Social media. If anything, social media had a LARGE part in the perception of our offense, and kids not wanting to play in it.

-The pure option offense. This has been discussed ad nauseum. Elite kids that have NFL aspirations simply were turned off by this offense. It also turned off some defenders that didn't want to get "chop blocked" everyday (so goes the negative recruiting).

-Weak recruiting staff. CPJ's staff was not a strong recruiting staff, add to that they had to sell against the backdrop of the pure option offense, and mix of the two was not good. Sure Andy Mac, CTR, and Lamar Owens were good, but GT did not have an elite recruiter. Let's face it, CPJ wasn't the best recruiter either. He's not a salesman on the level of James Franklin or Dabo Swinney. CPJ begrudgingly got on social media...quite possibly the biggest recruiting tool ever invented. IMO, CPJ put a premium on coaching and familiarity as opposed to recruiting when choosing staff.

-The rise of spread passing offenses, and consequently, the demand for dual threat QBs. Remember when CPJ first got here? The popular refrain was: It's going to be easy to get Dual Threat QBs because most other schools will want to move them to other positions. Unfortunately, right about the time CPJ was hired to GT, every other offense became a spread system, and the good coaches understood the advantages of getting a dual threat QB to run their system. Guys like David Cutcliffe, Nick Saban, Bobby Petrino...guys who use to prefer those 6'3+ drop back passers, began putting a premium on dual threat guys. CPJ could never capitilize (with the exception of JeT) on explosion of Dual Threat QBs...a lot of whom were from the same state.

The interesting thing with CGC is he comes in and immediately takes away some of the factors that have held us back the last 11 years. No more pure option offense, GREAT social media presence/game, CGC is known as a strong recruiter and several on his Temple staff (who I assume some will come to GT) are known as strong recruiters, and a system that will attract those elite offensive (and defensive) recruits.

IMO, CGC's tenure will be a more accurate litmus test for GT's recruiting ability versus CPJ's tenure as there were too many events that worked against GT with CPJ.

Proof is in the pudding. We'll see over the next few years.

 

[Madison Grant]

A few things I'd like to point out in this whole discussion:

The whole recruiting rankings phenomenon is only 10-15 years old. When Chan Gailey was first hired, recruiting services were in their nascent stages. There were not all these recruiting camps to scout players. Guys had to literally go to games and scour game films. It was hard to grade all the recruits because recruiting wasn't as "sexy" as it is now. Services are staffed up now. Chan's rankings early on were not an accurate indication of the talent (as I've pointed out in another thread) quite a few of the recruits were given the auto designation of 2 stars. Those 2 stars went on to have a big impact. In fact 3 of Chan's classes ended up being top 15 classes in retrospective rankings.

Let's get back to the recruiting services. One thing that we're becoming more aware of now is the "recruiting bump" phenomena were recruits are at time artificially ranked higher than they really are. CPJ has certainly benefitted from that. Those who follow recruiting can vouch for this. There's also the issue of recruiting services inflating recruiting in order to stay on the good side of football staff or fans. It exists, and everyone knows it exists: https://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/02/does_a_bama_bump_exist_in_recr.html

"Keep in mind that a lot of these recruiting websites and resources are reliant upon revenue of a fan signing up for a team site," Luginbill says. "When that's the case and you have to drive up (subscription) sales, what do you think those sites are going to do? They are going to start pumping and priming players that are committed to their school or considering their school and place them above other players because they are trying to drive subscription sales.

"Anyone who says that isn't true is full of baloney."

Last thing I'd like to touch on. This is NOT a knock on CPJ and his staff. The events with CPJ and recruiting was actually a confluence of factors that actually ended hurting GT during the last 11 years.

-First APR. Let's get that out of the way. APR is a factor, and anyone that denies it needs to leave the discussion. That means GT can't take chances on some of the guys we probably would have during the O'Leary years.

-Social media. If anything, social media had a LARGE part in the perception of our offense, and kids not wanting to play in it.

-The pure option offense. This has been discussed ad nauseum. Elite kids that have NFL aspirations simply were turned off by this offense. It also turned off some defenders that didn't want to get "chop blocked" everyday (so goes the negative recruiting).

-Weak recruiting staff. CPJ's staff was not a strong recruiting staff, add to that they had to sell against the backdrop of the pure option offense, and mix of the two was not good. Sure Andy Mac, CTR, and Lamar Owens were good, but GT did not have an elite recruiter. Let's face it, CPJ wasn't the best recruiter either. He's not a salesman on the level of James Franklin or Dabo Swinney. CPJ begrudgingly got on social media...quite possibly the biggest recruiting tool ever invented. IMO, CPJ put a premium on coaching and familiarity as opposed to recruiting when choosing staff.

-The rise of spread passing offenses, and consequently, the demand for dual threat QBs. Remember when CPJ first got here? The popular refrain was: It's going to be easy to get Dual Threat QBs because most other schools will want to move them to other positions. Unfortunately, right about the time CPJ was hired to GT, every other offense became a spread system, and the good coaches understood the advantages of getting a dual threat QB to run their system. Guys like David Cutcliffe, Nick Saban, Bobby Petrino...guys who use to prefer those 6'3+ drop back passers, began putting a premium on dual threat guys. CPJ could never capitilize (with the exception of JeT) on explosion of Dual Threat QBs...a lot of whom were from the same state.

The interesting thing with CGC is he comes in and immediately takes away some of the factors that have held us back the last 11 years. No more pure option offense, GREAT social media presence/game, CGC is known as a strong recruiter and several on his Temple staff (who I assume some will come to GT) are known as strong recruiters, and a system that will attract those elite offensive (and defensive) recruits.

IMO, CGC's tenure will be a more accurate litmus test for GT's recruiting ability versus CPJ's tenure as there were too many events that worked against GT with CPJ.

Proof is in the pudding. We'll see over the next few years.

Excellent analysis. I'd like to add I think Buzz Preston was a pretty good recruiter for us. The recruiting abilities of our staff have to be tempered against the reality of them trying to sell against the negative recruiting pitch of the option and stringency of our academics. CPJ may have done a better job of hiring recruiters than we realize, and this, much to the chagrin of option fans, may have been concealed by the limitations of the system.

 

[COJacket]

I still believe that Tech needs a nationwide recruiting program. Target the private schools. Sell the uniqueness of Tech to northern kids. Their are a dozen or so private schools in the metro area that consistently place kids in D1 football. ( Did a tour a couple of weeks ago of one. I was dumbfounded by the size of their weight room). I had previously posted about years ago sitting next to a BYU recruiter on a plane in Ohio. That was his territory. Tech needs a similar plan....at least targeting the football hot spots around the country.

It takes people and budget. That is what. BC is showing here. CPJ did the best with the smalllest recruiting resources in the ACC. TStan has to come through with more recruiting budget or CGC will be hampered

 

[Animal02]

It takes people and budget. That is what. BC is showing here. CPJ did the best with the smalllest recruiting resources in the ACC. TStan has to come through with more recruiting budget or CGC will be hampered

Exactly .....but according to many posters here, just the mere presence of the new coach is going to dramatically change recruiting and we will be competing for a NC in no time.

 

[COJacket]

I read a post the last week which said that Tech has (I think) the second highest degree of separation between the SAT scores of the general student body and the scholarship athletes. And yet we have an outstanding APR score. That tells me the tutoring team is doing one helluva job. I have read that Admissions was more lenient in the O'Leary years. With a new coach coming in, could we revisit the number of exceptions? Geof seems to be something of a salesman. Could he talk them into it? Haven't we earned some trust here?

Now realize I don't want to read one morning that the rush end I have been dreaming of has flunked out.

AND the recruiting team did a hell uva job finding those SAs that would work their butt off with the tutors! Tutoring + Effort = increased APR

 

[takethepoints]

One other thought. Correlation is not causation.

Yes, but, on the other hand, supportable causal relationships show strong correlations between the factors involved. It's whether you can submit such relationships to a "severe test" that make the difference. Going into that is a definite TL/DR.

 

[ATL1]

Top 25 consistently.

 

[AE 87]

Top 25 consistently.

Well Done! I like the bold expectation without knowing whether/how-much spending will increase.

I have a couple questions:
1) Do you think GT should start to process under-performers so that we can have larger signing classes every year? (larger classes can be a big factor in getting to top 25)
2) At what point (2 years? 5 years?) do you decide that CGC is under-performing as a recruiter if he has not pulled in a top 25 class?

Thanks

 

[Boaty1]

Well Done! I like the bold expectation without knowing whether/how-much spending will increase.

I have a couple questions:
1) Do you think GT should start to process under-performers so that we can have larger signing classes every year? (larger classes can be a big factor in getting to top 25)
2) At what point (2 years? 5 years?) do you decide that CGC is under-performing as a recruiter if he has not pulled in a top 25 class?

Thanks

Year 3 for me. And I’m with ATL in believing we will be signing top 25 classes in the near future. Time will tell.

 

[AE 87]

Year 3 for me. And I’m with ATL in believing we will be signing top 25 classes in the near future. Time will tell.

What about the first question?

 

[Boaty1]

What about the first question?

Not at all my friend. And you are correct in that it could cost a few spots in the rankings.

 

[AE 87]

Not at all my friend. And you are correct in that it could cost a few spots in the rankings.

Thanks!!!!

 

[southernhive]

Yes, yes, and more yes......I have several times that the biggest mistake CPJ made was thinking he was going to out recruit in the south.

CPJ may have thought he would have the funding to recruit in the South. I also think he did not expect the level of negative recruiting he would get. When he was at GSouthern, everyone loved his offense, but when he came to GT, everyone was against his offense, including the media.

 

[stech81]

CPJ may have thought he would have the funding to recruit in the South. I also think he did not expect the level of negative recruiting he would get. When he was at GSouthern, everyone loved his offense, but when he came to GT, everyone was against his offense, including the media.

I don't think that was true at the start. The last 4 years some want to move on.

 

[knoxjacket]

CPJ may have thought he would have the funding to recruit in the South. I also think he did not expect the level of negative recruiting he would get. When he was at GSouthern, everyone loved his offense, but when he came to GT, everyone was against his offense, including the media.

Who wouldn't love the offense when you are scoring 40ppg and smashing the competition? CPJ was basically coaching an FCS version of Bama except instead of playing the FCS version of the SEC he was playing tiny private schools, military academies, and suitcase colleges that didn't give a flip about football.

 

[Techster]

CPJ may have thought he would have the funding to recruit in the South. I also think he did not expect the level of negative recruiting he would get. When he was at GSouthern, everyone loved his offense, but when he came to GT, everyone was against his offense, including the media.

I touched on this earlier. This is where CPJ being slow to embrace social media hurt us in recruiting. Especially since we had multiple skill guys drafted early in CPJ's tenure (though they weren't recruited by him...but, that's where a savvy social media presence comes in handy). CPJ and GT could have gotten ahead of the narrative, instead we let the narrative get dictated to us by other coaches and ignorant media members. Our inaction REALLY hurt the perception of the system.

That's why CGC is breath of fresh air. He's taking the negative connotations of GT and turning them on their heads. GT is tough academically? You know what's really tough? Life...specifically, the rest of your life without a degree that's worth a dang. The NFL career is about 3.5 years...then what?! GT is what! Elite kids don't go to GT...the heck they don't. When I was at GT, we had the elite of the elite, and we were ranked every year. Why not GT?

The guy is a master at using social media, and the media itself as a tool for advancing GT and our program. Guess what? That stuff is FREE! Why not leverage a free tool that's as powerful as anything else we could do for recruiting.

Love it.

 

[Animal02]

I don't think that was true at the start. The last 4 years some want to move on.

I remember talking to friend that was in semi pro, about CPJ when his hiring was announced.....he poo pooed the offense as easy to defend etc......this was before he even arrived at Tech.

 

[ncjacket79]

A few things I'd like to point out in this whole discussion:

The whole recruiting rankings phenomenon is only 10-15 years old. When Chan Gailey was first hired, recruiting services were in their nascent stages. There were not all these recruiting camps to scout players. Guys had to literally go to games and scour game films. It was hard to grade all the recruits because recruiting wasn't as "sexy" as it is now. Services are staffed up now. Chan's rankings early on were not an accurate indication of the talent (as I've pointed out in another thread) quite a few of the recruits were given the auto designation of 2 stars. Those 2 stars went on to have a big impact. In fact 3 of Chan's classes ended up being top 15 classes in retrospective rankings.

Let's get back to the recruiting services. One thing that we're becoming more aware of now is the "recruiting bump" phenomena were recruits are at time artificially ranked higher than they really are. CPJ has certainly benefitted from that. Those who follow recruiting can vouch for this. There's also the issue of recruiting services inflating recruiting in order to stay on the good side of football staff or fans. It exists, and everyone knows it exists: https://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/02/does_a_bama_bump_exist_in_recr.html

"Keep in mind that a lot of these recruiting websites and resources are reliant upon revenue of a fan signing up for a team site," Luginbill says. "When that's the case and you have to drive up (subscription) sales, what do you think those sites are going to do? They are going to start pumping and priming players that are committed to their school or considering their school and place them above other players because they are trying to drive subscription sales.

"Anyone who says that isn't true is full of baloney."

Last thing I'd like to touch on. This is NOT a knock on CPJ and his staff. The events with CPJ and recruiting was actually a confluence of factors that actually ended hurting GT during the last 11 years.

-First APR. Let's get that out of the way. APR is a factor, and anyone that denies it needs to leave the discussion. That means GT can't take chances on some of the guys we probably would have during the O'Leary years.

-Social media. If anything, social media had a LARGE part in the perception of our offense, and kids not wanting to play in it.

-The pure option offense. This has been discussed ad nauseum. Elite kids that have NFL aspirations simply were turned off by this offense. It also turned off some defenders that didn't want to get "chop blocked" everyday (so goes the negative recruiting).

-Weak recruiting staff. CPJ's staff was not a strong recruiting staff, add to that they had to sell against the backdrop of the pure option offense, and mix of the two was not good. Sure Andy Mac, CTR, and Lamar Owens were good, but GT did not have an elite recruiter. Let's face it, CPJ wasn't the best recruiter either. He's not a salesman on the level of James Franklin or Dabo Swinney. CPJ begrudgingly got on social media...quite possibly the biggest recruiting tool ever invented. IMO, CPJ put a premium on coaching and familiarity as opposed to recruiting when choosing staff.

-The rise of spread passing offenses, and consequently, the demand for dual threat QBs. Remember when CPJ first got here? The popular refrain was: It's going to be easy to get Dual Threat QBs because most other schools will want to move them to other positions. Unfortunately, right about the time CPJ was hired to GT, every other offense became a spread system, and the good coaches understood the advantages of getting a dual threat QB to run their system. Guys like David Cutcliffe, Nick Saban, Bobby Petrino...guys who use to prefer those 6'3+ drop back passers, began putting a premium on dual threat guys. CPJ could never capitilize (with the exception of JeT) on explosion of Dual Threat QBs...a lot of whom were from the same state.

The interesting thing with CGC is he comes in and immediately takes away some of the factors that have held us back the last 11 years. No more pure option offense, GREAT social media presence/game, CGC is known as a strong recruiter and several on his Temple staff (who I assume some will come to GT) are known as strong recruiters, and a system that will attract those elite offensive (and defensive) recruits.

IMO, CGC's tenure will be a more accurate litmus test for GT's recruiting ability versus CPJ's tenure as there were too many events that worked against GT with CPJ.

Proof is in the pudding. We'll see over the next few years.

Great post!