How do we get better at 3rd and long?

[CuseJacket]

...when we're already one of the best?

 

[TampaBuzz]

How can that be...."we're not built for 3rd and long!"

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Don't forget that's when we're "out of our comfort zone." How many times have we heard those worn out cliches that lazy commentators throw around while calling our games?

Maybe we need to resurrect the "myths busted" thread?

Actually to be honest, 3rd and long typically meant "3rd and Smelter". We need to find somebody to fill those huge shoes next season.

 

[GTJoeBrew]

Actually to be honest, 3rd and long typically meant "3rd and Smelter". We need to find somebody to fill those huge shoes next season.

That's exactly what I was thinking. I bet if they increased it to between 7 and 15 yards, we would still be in top 5 or so.

 

[ilovetheoption]

Avoid them.

 

[LibertyTurns]

C'mon some stats geek can figure out how to turn this around. Surely we're not good at some down and distance like 11, 13 yds or 17yds or something so we can extend the narrative. Nuke?

On the other hand, I've never heard an announcer say the coach is glad Team X got that 15yd penalty to make it 3rd and 25 because they're so efficient converting those. They'd have a much worse time converting if it was 3rd and 4 or 3rd and 1 because their offense just isn't built for that.

 

[IEEEWreck]

...when we're already one of the best?

Two words: Grizzly Bears.

Their defense is just not built to withstand rampaging bears. Maybe if they'd gone with the 'shotgun' defense they'd be better at dealing with that situation.

 

[reubenjet]

a few more "second and short"s ought to do the trick!

 

[DC Bee]

I recall us being 1 for 2 on 4th and long (5 or more yards)....

 

[Sean311]

I always found so much joy when the opposing crowds try to get really loud on 3rd down like we're going to punt it if we don't make it. Bahahaha fools!!

 

[Boomergump]

When you think about it, our offense is built BETTER than most for 3rd and long, when defined as between 7 and 9 yards like that. Think about it. Our RBs have some obscene per carry averages. I'll bet half of our runs go for 7 yards or more. This makes the threat of the run a reality in this situation. A defense who still has to truly respect the run will be easier to convert against than one that doesn't respect it at all. Additionally, we tend to go for it on 4th down a lot more than most teams, so that opens up the run (on 3rd down) even more as well. In short, we are still a two dimensional offense at 3rd and 7-9, when the vast majority are not.

If we are talking 3rd and 15 like situations, then one could argue that some other spread passing schemes might be more advantageous. We have some play makers who have helped us convert in these 3rd and extremely long situations, but schematically, we may be at a slight disadvantage to some.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

According to Suguira Tech tied the NCAA record this year for third down conversion percentage.

So how do we get better? Next year the team sets a new NCAA record.

(I am channeling Paul Johnson here since there is always a way to do better, right? )

 

[stinger 1957]

I've often thought that many commentators think our offense is the wishbone and that is where the comments originate in their minds

 

[GTpdm]

I've often thought that many commentators think our offense is the wishbone and that is where the comments originate in their minds

And then, after they've pulled up the "can't handle 3rd and long" mantra, you can almost hear what they are thinking after we convert and make them look foolish:

"Dadgum wishbone..."

 

[gtrower]

The VT board had a thread on CPJs offense earlier this week. The original poster questioned if CPJ had hit his ceiling this year at #7 in the country or if we could actually contend for a title. A few mentioned that we could with a better defense. But most answered as you'd expect: "they'll run into defenses that will just flat out stop it." (As if other offenses don't have that problem).

But my favorite comment was from a guy who wrote a few paragraphs with an armchair breakdown of our offense. The clincher was "but when you get these option offenses into 3rd and long, they just look lost out there." I had myself a good laugh over that stemming from these stats being posted. People really will regurgitate what they read and hear like its fact without ever seeing it firsthand. That kid actually thinks he has a firm grasp of what's happening on the field.

 

[reubenjet]

And then, after they've pulled up the "can't handle 3rd and long" mantra, you can almost hear what they are thinking after we convert and make them look foolish:

"Dadgum wishbone..."

"Dadgum, dadgum"

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

But Mark May said it, so it must be true.

 

[Eastman]

Have to admit that typically when we have third and long I don't think "we must make it or have to punt" I typically think "I hope we get at least most of it so we don't have to punt"
First and 15 didn't bother me as much this year either whereas last year a five yard penalty had me worried.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

C'mon some stats geek can figure out how to turn this around. Surely we're not good at some down and distance like 11, 13 yds or 17yds or something so we can extend the narrative. Nuke?

On the other hand, I've never heard an announcer say the coach is glad Team X got that 15yd penalty to make it 3rd and 25 because they're so efficient converting those. They'd have a much worse time converting if it was 3rd and 4 or 3rd and 1 because their offense just isn't built for that.

I looked at this once - probably Football Outsiders stats. As I recall we are about 25th best on 3rd and more than 7. Still pretty damn good. What we did different from other teams was run (and make a first) on 3rd and long more than other teams.

For us though, fourth down is more expected than unexpected.

Anyway, the best way to get better is never get into third and long. That means you didn't do well on first or second down. Ohio State was phenomenally (lucky) at converting on third and long against Alabama and Oregon. But they were only abloe to do that due to poor first and second downs. That is not the way to win consistently.....

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Bunches of ways you can mutilate the stats, but here are some stats with the links .... we aren't the best but we don't get behind schedule a lot. And we do go for it on fourth ..... 9th best in 4th down conversion % http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category26/sort01.html

Passing 3rd & 10+ we were 89th. http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/situational15/category02/sort03.html

Rushing 3rd & 10 we were 33rd. http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/situational15/category01/sort01.html

Passing 3rd & 7-9 we were 47th.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/situational14/category02/sort03.html

Rushing 3rd & 7-9 we were 4th.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/situational14/category01/sort02.html