Haynes King Update: How Do We Feel About Him?

slugboy

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@slugboy, you are the stats guru. Looking at the above list, all those guys are on solid to great teams. How much of this statistic is a team stat vs. an individual player stat? I asked this bc in watching some of those guys and teams, they really don't pass the eyeball test imo as "great" qb's. How effective would the top 10 guys be for insance playing on Vandy or East Carolina's squad? Or, asked differently, would our guy be in the top 2 or 3 if he played at Bama or OSU? I think it is feasible.
One question is easier—Dart would look worse at East Carolina. The upside is harder to figure out. Sanders was better when Colorado could block; now, he might be the most sacked QB in the NCAA.

For top 5-10, you have players in a system for a while that have built up a relationship with their teammates, and know what they’re going to do. We’re 1 year into this offense, and we’re adjusting it now, too. We can get there; especially if the blocking gels.
 

roadkill

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@slugboy, you are the stats guru. Looking at the above list, all those guys are on solid to great teams. How much of this statistic is a team stat vs. an individual player stat? I asked this bc in watching some of those guys and teams, they really don't pass the eyeball test imo as "great" qb's. How effective would the top 10 guys be for insance playing on Vandy or East Carolina's squad? Or, asked differently, would our guy be in the top 2 or 3 if he played at Bama or OSU? I think it is feasible.
@slugboy can probably give you a better answer, but according to ESPN's definition, Total QBR attempts to rate QBs based on how much credit the QB should be given for the success of each play, adjusted for strength of defense. So in theory it should somewhat level the field regardless of the skill of the surrounding players, but in practice, I'm sure it matters some.

Edit to add: Haynes has "won" the ACC QBR in the last two weeks, and it wasn't particularly close. He scored 94.0 and 94.7 on a 100-point scale, so he couldn't have done much better.
 

Oldgoldandwhite

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Long shot, but could wind up being the all time passing single season record holder for Tech. I haven’t read all 33 pages, so I’m sure someone may have mentioned it.
 

roadkill

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Long shot, but could wind up being the all time passing single season record holder for Tech. I haven’t read all 33 pages, so I’m sure someone may have mentioned it.
This was posted before Saturday's game:
Folks, let's just set aside all the lame systems with their lame subjective parameters we've seen above for a moment. If Haynes continues to produce at the same rate as he has to date, which I think he will, he should average about 265.25 yards per game. 265.25 ypg x 4 games = 1,061 yds + 2,122 yds to date = 3,183 yards passing for the season. That, brothers and sisters, surpasses the best season passing yards set by both Joe Ham and the Goose as the most in GT history.
I'm not sure if our records count bowl games as part of the "season". If they do, breaking the record is quite likely. If they don't, it's still not a stretch but he would need to do it against a couple of elite defenses.
 

Techster

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Starting to change my mind a little bit here. Maybe the Falcons could use King right now.

There's different degrees to being "NFL good". Is King a 1st round draft pick and surefire NFL starter? He's got a lot of work to get there. Is he NFL material? 100%. Physically, he's every bit as talented as a guy like Taylor Heinicke, Josh Dobbs, Tyson Bagent, Jake Fromm, and the myriad of NFL backups and practice squad guys. King actually reminds me a lot of Ryan Tannehill...extremely athletic QB that has an above average NFL arm, but is athletic enough to hurt you with his legs.

IMO, if King can improve on this season next year, I'd be surprised if he isn't drafted in the mid to later rounds. The NFL doesn't overlook production at the QB position...especially production at the P5 level.
 

roadkill

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One of King's distinguishing attributes is his running ability. The NFL doesn't tend to value that as much as college teams unless you are Cam Newton or Lamar Jackson level. Elusiveness definitely helps, but the NFL can be hard on running QBs. Regardless, if he continues to put up numbers like he has been, he will get the attention of NFL scouts.
 

slugboy

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@slugboy can probably give you a better answer, but according to ESPN's definition, Total QBR attempts to rate QBs based on how much credit the QB should be given for the success of each play, adjusted for strength of defense. So in theory it should somewhat level the field regardless of the skill of the surrounding players, but in practice, I'm sure it matters some.

Edit to add: Haynes has "won" the ACC QBR in the last two weeks, and it wasn't particularly close. He scored 94.0 and 94.7 on a 100-point scale, so he couldn't have done much better.
QBR uses EPA, but that’s more to give a higher score to the QBs that drive you to the end zone vs the ones that throw hitches all day.

Player grades like PFF will factor the other 10 players out, but the stats don’t. If a QB throws 10 hitches and the receivers run for a bunch of 80 yard TDs, the QB has an awesome QBR. If you’re Gino Torretta for Miami in 1992, you take 45 seconds to pass behind a line that literally gives you all day, and you get a Heisman trophy (pre QBR, but he would have been highly rated). Then, you suck in the pros.

Receiver makes a circus catch, and the QBs QBR goes up.

On the other hand, you can dodge 4 rushers and throw a 60 yard dime and have it go right through the receiver’s hands. That just shows up as an incomplete.

@ibeattetris and a bunch of others are great at stats. I used to do more myself with R and Python, but I don’t have that kind of time, and just get by with spreadsheets these days.
 

cpf2001

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ESPN's QBR does fun thing like, pre-game yesterday, having UVA's freshman Colandrea nearly as highly scored as King, and much higher than their SR Muskett, so I always look at it a bit sideways. (Colandrea still scores much better than Muskett, so imagine the beatdown we could've seen if Muskett hadn't gone out. ;) )
 

iceeater1969

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I saw a week 10 qb scatter shot chart like slug hss shown before. I think this shows King has MOVED way up and to the right. I think this is a very good thing as it matches my ete ball.


The chart had the Clemson qb is about level and some what to the left.

Does this say who will be better this Saturday
 

stinger78

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The best thing is he’s above the regression line for offensive production. So then, as good as he is, the offense is producing well also. IOW, it’s not just him, head leading the O overall to good performance.
 

jojatk

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The best thing is he’s above the regression line for offensive production. So then, as good as he is, the offense is producing well also. IOW, it’s not just him, head leading the O overall to good performance.
YES! I’ve said a number of times that one of the things I really like about Haynes is that he is not only playing well but he’s leading on the field. Everyone has been steadily improving their play especially of late and it appears they are figuring out, together, what they do well and how to get better at it every week.
 

reckrider

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What I like about HK is his ability to pass and run (mobility) effectively out of the quarterback position in running the RPO offense. KId is a leader and is the best quarterback Tech has had in some time.
He is a great representative of Key’s culture. Last player off the field Saturday after an appreciation round of high fives with the fans that made the trip.
 
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