Haynes King Update: How Do We Feel About Him?

[Northeast Stinger]

From a schematic standpoint, the swings and screens tend to fit nicely with the deep balls. Depending on the blocking, the swings and screens force the LB's, corners and safeties to change where they're looking (aka eye discipline). They'll start to overplay the short throw and then you gash them with a deep post or whatever. Kinda the same idea as run game and play action.

Sure, but virtually every team we face ends up adjusting and taking away the deep ball and the wr screens and leaves the middle wide open. This is about the time we seem to have only two other plays -hitting the tight-end, which only works if it’s a perfect throw, or an out pattern, which other throwing teams seem to utilize more.

Something about our route tree seems to get truncated, no pun intended. Alabama and Clemson, when they are good, make a killing over the middle when teams take away the deep ball.

 

[AugustaSwarm]

Sure, but virtually every team we face ends up adjusting and taking away the deep ball and the wr screens and leaves the middle wide open. This is about the time we seem to have only two other plays -hitting the tight-end, which only works if it’s a perfect throw, or an out pattern, which other throwing teams seem to utilize more.

Something about our route tree seems to get truncated, no pun intended. Alabama and Clemson, when they are good, make a killing over the middle when teams take away the deep ball.

Yeah, I agree. I think our struggles running the ball exacerbate this too. But, we're only 5 games into a new offensive system with a new QB and nearly all new skill players. The early results are FAR better than I expected.

The one thing I'd disagree with your post is that if it takes a perfect throw to hit the TE in the middle, then what's the difference in hitting a WR or RB in the middle? Wouldn't that also require a perfect throw? I personally don't care who the play is designed for, as long as we're moving the ball. Whether it's on the outside or running the option, it makes no difference to me. I guess your complaint is more about the aesthetics of it?

 

[AugustaSwarm]

I'll also add that I don't think there's anything "truncated" about our route tree. I've seen us run quite a wide variety of route combinations this year. The fact that King is able to spread the ball to do many different receivers every game is a good thing IMO and bears testament to this. It also shows his ability to read the defense and hit the open man.

It's been a long, long time since we've had such a quality QB on the Flats. The fact that we have King AND Pyron is an absolute blessing! It gives me hope that we're moving in the right direction as a program.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Yeah, I agree. I think our struggles running the ball exacerbate this too. But, we're only 5 games into a new offensive system with a new QB and nearly all new skill players. The early results are FAR better than I expected.

The one thing I'd disagree with your post is that if it takes a perfect throw to hit the TE in the middle, then what's the difference in hitting a WR or RB in the middle? Wouldn't that also require a perfect throw? I personally don't care who the play is designed for, as long as we're moving the ball. Whether it's on the outside or running the option, it makes no difference to me. I guess your complaint is more about the aesthetics of it?

No, the effectiveness of it. A wide receiver or slot back crossing in the middle is far more likely to get spacing from a defender than a tight-end running a drag route over the middle. Hence the throw to the tight-end has to be perfect or it’s incomplete.

But I like that you are optimistic that the QB and receivers are still learning. That’s a hopeful way to look at it and means the pass options will increase and it will be harder to shut our QB down in critical quarters.

 

[slugboy]

Oi was asking u , since u posted it and because u use lots of different ones.

Only use stats to calibrate eyes as it relates to whats changed.

MY Eyes ask is the ol any better so thats why passing yards.
Or are they the same not so good ol? The running says they are the same. They are true freshman lt, walk on lg, center who has lots of starts, rg senior transfer and rt back up. Its ethier the qb and the scheme. (.Could be that pyron would look good) . Fact is stats show our passing bette


i just like how the site works at theacc.com stats.

THEIR I Can see IN ONE TABLE ACC qbs only. MY STAT IS TDS VERSES INT WHEN U ADD IN THE RUNNING GAME.
Seems like qbr us very tough on int.

Passer Rating is just passing. It’s “Passing Efficiency” in CFB. It’s a good and useful stat. It’s the granddaddy of advanced stats.

ESPN’s QBR is proprietary, and it covers more than just passing, and it’s EPA-based. It’s built to measure how your QB helped your team win. Pick 6’s are really bad. Throwing a pick as you’re about to score is bad. Picking up 9 yards on 3rd and 8 is huge. Picking up 9 yards on 3rd and 20 isn’t. Wikipedia Article

At ESPN you can see QBR for all the ACC QBs—it’s what I pasted.

You can also sort by EPA, and see who contributes the most to putting points on the board

I’m glad we’re setting records. We’re also losing. We have an offense that slings it, so you’d expect good QB stats. Is King a good QB? yes. Does he have some issues that he needs to work out? yes. Is he in the same league with Riley Leonard at Duke? Maybe, depending on how you look at it. Is he in the same league with Maye, Travis, and Van Dyke? No, not right now. Maybe someday.

If the all-ACC teams got named this week, either Van Dyke or Travis would be first team (I think Van Dyke is way ahead of everyone). Maye would be third. Shrader and Leonard would get honorable mention. That’s your top 5 right now.

 

[AugustaSwarm]

No, the effectiveness of it. A wide receiver or slot back crossing in the middle is far more likely to get spacing from a defender than a tight-end running a drag route over the middle. Hence the throw to the tight-end has to be perfect or it’s incomplete.

But I like that you are optimistic that the QB and receivers are still learning. That’s a hopeful way to look at it and means the pass options will increase and it will be harder to shut our QB down in critical quarters.

Honestly, I'm not sure you can really gripe much about the effectiveness of the offense. We can move the ball. Perhaps the play calling in the red zone could improve? But overall, our offense is moving the ball and racking up yards. I feel like I'm missing your point?

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Honestly, I'm not sure you can really gripe much about the effectiveness of the offense. We can move the ball. Perhaps the play calling in the red zone could improve? But overall, our offense is moving the ball and racking up yards. I feel like I'm missing your point?

Sorry, did not mean to suggest I am dissatisfied with our passing game.

It was a side comment / issue based on an observation. Which is this. Right at critical moments in every game, when we need a completion to either score or keep a drive going, we go back to what worked before but it’s not there. Deep pass routes are now double covered and no longer open and wide receiver screens are blown up for a loss. It is almost like clock work. It suggests to me there are other routes that would be open since these are so consistently taken away.

But I sure don’t want this to be taken as a blanket criticism of our offense. I think most of us agree that the offense is not the problem. But since our defense needs to be bailed out in key situations I just wondered if there is another wrinkle in our passing game that needs looking at that might save our defense another down or two. Sure looks like it from watching replays.

 

[roadkill]

ESPN’s QBR is proprietary, and it covers more than just passing, and it’s EPA-based.

The pair of interceptions against BG totaled over 13 points of negative EPA. They were extremely costly from an EPA standpoint. And if you agree with the concept of EPA, those two plays cost us nearly two touchdowns of points differential in a game we lost by 11. Unfortunately, QBR probably assigned the second interception to Haynes even though there is an argument that he was not responsible.

While QBR certainly has flaws, Total QBR would seem to be useful to compare league QB's body of work across several games.

 

[cpf2001]

I am not fond of EPA-based metrics as predictive metrics or “talent indicators.” Too much of that is in the hands of everyone else on the field.

 

[roadkill]

I am not fond of EPA-based metrics as predictive metrics or “talent indicators.” Too much of that is in the hands of everyone else on the field.

Valid point. I'm new to looking at advanced stats - and it does seem like EPA is a useful metric for plays, not so much for players.

 

[slugboy]

I am not fond of EPA-based metrics as predictive metrics or “talent indicators.” Too much of that is in the hands of everyone else on the field.

On the other hand, offensive linemen win Heisman awards—for other people.

QB stats have always been dependent on other players. It’s the nature of the position, for good and bad. If the QB throws a 1 yard hitch that goes for a touchdown, they get credit for an 80 yard completion.

I think a QBs primary objective is wins, and points are the way they get there. EPA measures how the QB contributes towards points.

If you want individual stats, the PFF ratings fit that bill.

 

[roadkill]

On the other hand, offensive linemen win Heisman awards—for other people.

QB stats have always been dependent on other players. It’s the nature of the position, for good and bad. If the QB throws a 1 yard hitch that goes for a touchdown, they get credit for an 80 yard completion.

I think a QBs primary objective is wins, and points are the way they get there. EPA measures how the QB contributes towards points.

If you want individual stats, the PFF ratings fit that bill.

On this topic, can anyone share any PFF stats for ACC QBs?

 

[cpf2001]

On the other hand, offensive linemen win Heisman awards—for other people.

QB stats have always been dependent on other players. It’s the nature of the position, for good and bad. If the QB throws a 1 yard hitch that goes for a touchdown, they get credit for an 80 yard completion.

I think a QBs primary objective is wins, and points are the way they get there. EPA measures how the QB contributes towards points.

If you want individual stats, the PFF ratings fit that bill.

That’s a great point about the OL and all, and I was actually a bit mixed up, I was thinking more about win probability stats than expected points. And then it is dependent on the other team/your defense too. For EPA I have a more limited reservation around field position, unless I’m misreading the stat. I’m skeptical of how frequently, say, “most of his interceptions are in the red zone” is a skill or trend thing vs chance.

 

[slugboy]

On this topic, can anyone share any PFF stats for ACC QBs?

Scroll halfway down the page here https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/g...-football-advanced-stats-review-bowling-green

It’s just for Bowling Green, but it’s the first week that PFF was more favorable for King than QBR (PFF gave him a great report this week)

 

[Techster]

Good coaching matters.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[ibeattetris]

The pair of interceptions against BG totaled over 13 points of negative EPA. They were extremely costly from an EPA standpoint. And if you agree with the concept of EPA, those two plays cost us nearly two touchdowns of points differential in a game we lost by 11. Unfortunately, QBR probably assigned the second interception to Haynes even though there is an argument that he was not responsible.

While QBR certainly has flaws, Total QBR would seem to be useful to compare league QB's body of work across several games.

Espn QBR also includes rushing I believe, which is a large part of what modern CFB qb’s are responsible for. QB rating is only raw passing.

 

[1979jacket]

Sure, but virtually every team we face ends up adjusting and taking away the deep ball and the wr screens and leaves the middle wide open. This is about the time we seem to have only two other plays -hitting the tight-end, which only works if it’s a perfect throw, or an out pattern, which other throwing teams seem to utilize more.

Something about our route tree seems to get truncated, no pun intended. Alabama and Clemson, when they are good, make a killing over the middle when teams take away the deep ball.

i keep expecting more crossing patterns

 

[ibeattetris]

Scroll halfway down the page here https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/g...-football-advanced-stats-review-bowling-green

It’s just for Bowling Green, but it’s the first week that PFF was more favorable for King than QBR (PFF gave him a great report this week)

I guess if QBR is around EPA and PFF is eyeballs, then a pick six might get attributed differently. A pick six in epa is almost a guaranteed -9.5 (since you gave them 7 and average drives are around 2.5 expected points).

If PFF gives forgiveness for a bad WR route, a tipped ball, bad blocking, then epa is going to be way more unforgiving.

 

[1979jacket]

I don't disagree with any of your statements.

But there is an implication from some posters that our QB is above criticism, or that his actions played no part in our loss. I could be reading too much into those posts.

I concede that “bad” was a poor choice of a word to describe our QB’s overall performance on Saturday. “Below his usual standard” was the phrase I used later on in my post above, and I stand by that.

And perhaps I wasn’t clear in my point about how stats can sometimes be misleading. King is the ACC leader in yards and touchdowns. We should be ecstatic to have a QB with those stats. That doesn’t mean some of his decisions and actions Saturday had no negative impacts on the game or its outcome. Do you disagree with any of the specific examples I cited?

not really - but he had very few chances and you don;t mention that. The defense never let him get on the field and when he did the pressure was immense to score and score quickly. I think he pressed but may learn from it that you have to remain patient no matter how bad your team's defense is playing.