Harvin Questionable

Adadu

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Harvin is questionable to play against Pitt with a lower body injury. Who the hell's gonna punt?
 
SteamWhistle

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IMG_1943.GIF

We don't plan on punting anyway.
 
deeeznutz

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Adadu said:
Harvin is questionable to play against Pitt with a lower body injury. Who the hell's gonna punt?
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I hope we don't need to find out. BTW it's funny watching NFL games and most other college teams now...I'm FULLY on board with Paul Johnson's "use all 4 downs" philosophy, and now it hurts my brain watching teams punt on 4th & 1. It always used to be something I'd question, but now there's no doubt in my mind. Also, does anyone doubt that Paul Johnson would become the first NFL coach to make going for two his SOP with the longer extra point attempts? It's still surprising to me that no coach has done this yet even though the stats tend to bear out that it's the smart play.
 
awbuzz

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lower-body injury...

" linebacker David Curry (lower body) and offensive linemen Andrew Marshall (lower body) and Brad Morgan (upper body). Defensive tackle Kyle Cerge-Henderson (lower body) is probable and is expected to play..."
 
jeffgt14

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deeeznutz said:
I hope we don't need to find out. BTW it's funny watching NFL games and most other college teams now...I'm FULLY on board with Paul Johnson's "use all 4 downs" philosophy, and now it hurts my brain watching teams punt on 4th & 1. It always used to be something I'd question, but now there's no doubt in my mind. Also, does anyone doubt that Paul Johnson would become the first NFL coach to make going for two his SOP with the longer extra point attempts? It's still surprising to me that no coach has done this yet even though the stats tend to bear out that it's the smart play.
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I don’t see it happening. 2pt conversion rates in the NFL generally sit at about the 50% mark. This is with 2pt plays that have been specifically drawn up in practice for a handful of situations with practically no film for the opponent to review beforehand. I can only imagine that number dropping when teams lose their “money” plays.
 
deeeznutz

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jeffgt14 said:
I don’t see it happening. 2pt conversion rates in the NFL generally sit at about the 50% mark. This is with 2pt plays that have been specifically drawn up in practice for a handful of situations with practically no film for the opponent to review beforehand. I can only imagine that number dropping when teams lose their “money” plays.
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If 2 point conversion rates sit around the 50% mark and extra points are ~90%, doesn't it then make sense to go for two? You'd think teams would also get better at running those plays, just as teams would get better at defending them. When it comes down to it, it's just basically goal line stand plays...every team has a whole lot of these in their playbooks. I almost had an aneurysm last night when the Niners scored a TD to put them down 2, I had walked out of the room for a minute and when I came back they showed a replay of a blocked XP from earlier. With no rooting interest, I was yelling at the TV "WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!?!" before I realized it was just a replay. They did fail the 2 point conversion, though...
 

Skeptic

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deeeznutz said:
I hope we don't need to find out. BTW it's funny watching NFL games and most other college teams now...I'm FULLY on board with Paul Johnson's "use all 4 downs" philosophy, and now it hurts my brain watching teams punt on 4th & 1. It always used to be something I'd question, but now there's no doubt in my mind. Also, does anyone doubt that Paul Johnson would become the first NFL coach to make going for two his SOP with the longer extra point attempts? It's still surprising to me that no coach has done this yet even though the stats tend to bear out that it's the smart play.
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You are right on every count. Except the guy deals with owners and owners are conservative and losing a game after failing on 4th and one means the door. But I do acknowledge that it is tougher to make it in the NFL than college.
 
ilovetheoption

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deeeznutz said:
If 2 point conversion rates sit around the 50% mark and extra points are ~90%, doesn't it then make sense to go for two? You'd think teams would also get better at running those plays, just as teams would get better at defending them. When it comes down to it, it's just basically goal line stand plays...every team has a whole lot of these in their playbooks. I almost had an aneurysm last night when the Niners scored a TD to put them down 2, I had walked out of the room for a minute and when I came back they showed a replay of a blocked XP from earlier. With no rooting interest, I was yelling at the TV "WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!?!" before I realized it was just a replay. They did fail the 2 point conversion, though...
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Inertia is a MFer, especially among coaches.
 
GTJoeBrew

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Geez, what happened to us being at full strength? Did these all happen during practice this week?

With regards to always going for it, there is a HS coach (I think in Texas) that does not punt or kick. He will go for it no matter the down and distance. He also goes onside for every kickoff. To @deeeznutz point, it paid off pretty well for that team.

Edit: He coaches a team in Arkansas and was 77-17 at the time of this article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-another-radical-idea/?utm_term=.13177b15ddcb
 
Eastman

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I do think that not kicking in intriguing but what if you are behind by 6 and score a touchdown on the last play of the game and only need one point? would you rather kick the extra point or go for two? What if there is a penalty during your two point attempt and you get moved back? I would certainly want a good kicking game then because when all you need is one point, extra points are definitely a higher percentage play.
 
jeffgt14

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deeeznutz said:
If 2 point conversion rates sit around the 50% mark and extra points are ~90%, doesn't it then make sense to go for two? You'd think teams would also get better at running those plays, just as teams would get better at defending them. When it comes down to it, it's just basically goal line stand plays...every team has a whole lot of these in their playbooks. I almost had an aneurysm last night when the Niners scored a TD to put them down 2, I had walked out of the room for a minute and when I came back they showed a replay of a blocked XP from earlier. With no rooting interest, I was yelling at the TV "WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!?!" before I realized it was just a replay. They did fail the 2 point conversion, though...
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It’s just a toss up to me. Like I said it’s 50% while running plays defenses are not practicing against. I found some data that shows the 4th and 2 conversion rate from 2009-2015 which may provide some decent data on what a 2pt conversion success rate would be as well. 188/373 so 50% there as well (4th and 1 rate is 64%). The outlier with the 4th and 2 data though is on several occasions you have more field behind you so defenses can’t play up as much. So if you’re 50% with safeties playing off a bit, what percentage will you be with a more aggressive defense?
 
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