GT vs #17 Ole Miss GAME THREAD

ibeattetris

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Interesting question I’d like to pose - what do you guys think the perception and line would look like had Stewart made his FG and King led us to a TD two weeks ago instead of a miss and a fumble? We likely win that game in that scenario and generate a ton of buzz. Are we still 20 point underdogs? I’m guessing more like 10-13
My opinion, not by much. I don't really think Vegas is as affected by "generate a ton of buzz". Our defense in your scenario still played poorly, and I am not sure how much Vegas analytics will still be using last season's data as part of its calculations this week (which certainly would add to Ole Miss margin).

I think the line is too wide and think GT will cover personally.
 

yeti92

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This is a very low bar to clear. Basically you are saying they don't look completely incompetent this year. I guess its a glass half full/half empty scenario. Personally I expected us to struggle on D as we lost our top 3 defensive players from last year by a long shot. I can't convince myself that the struggles won't continue Saturday against an O that is vastly superior to what we have seen to date.
Yep the loss of Charlie, Ace, and Keion, plus losing Zamari, Akelo, and Allen through the portal was pretty much guaranteed to have us lined up for a set back on defense this season. We have a lot of guys who have been in college a while, but not a lot of production to show for it.
 

bobongo

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My opinion, not by much. I don't really think Vegas is as affected by "generate a ton of buzz". Our defense in your scenario still played poorly, and I am not sure how much Vegas analytics will still be using last season's data as part of its calculations this week (which certainly would add to Ole Miss margin).

I think the line is too wide and think GT will cover personally.
"Vegas" doesn't matter.
The people who ultimately set the line are the betting public who would certainly be affected by "a ton of buzz". They're the ones who've moved the opening line down from -20.5 to -18/18.5.

I do agree the line was too high when it first came out at -20.5. I think GT +20.5 was a good bet. I hope we beat the money line, now around +650.
 

ibeattetris

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"Vegas" doesn't matter.
The people who ultimately set the line are the betting public who would certainly be affected by "a ton of buzz". They're the ones who've moved the opening line down from -20.5 to -18/18.5.

I do agree the line was too high when it first came out at -20.5.
The line opened at 20.5. That is Vegas. The line then moved. That is bettors.

Since the question was related to the 20 points, I was referring to the opening line.
 

bobongo

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The line opened at 20.5. That is Vegas. The line then moved. That is bettors.

Since the question was related to the 20 points, I was referring to the opening line.
But Vegas sets the line where they think the betting public will land. They try to set the line as closely as they can to the final line determined by the bettors. It has nothing to do with their (Vegas) perception of the game. Vegas set the line a little higher than it should have been to even up the bets on both sides. More bet on Tech, thus the line moved down. But Vegas sets the line not on what they think the winning margin will be, but on where they think they can even up the money bet by the public on both sides of it. They overshot, and the line moved down.

Vegas would have set the line significantly lower than -20.5, or even -18, had Tech won against Louisville, because the buzz created by that win would have indicated such.
 
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RamblinCharger

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Discussing Vegas lines, I think taking the over in this game would make more sense than anything. This defense hasn't shown the ability to slow down much. Getting gashed for 200 yards on the ground by an FCS team isn't good no matter the spin zone you want to put on it. I think the offense has made huge strides in a year and we finally have a quality QB.
 

bobongo

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Discussing Vegas lines, I think taking the over in this game would make more sense than anything. This defense hasn't shown the ability to slow down much. Getting gashed for 200 yards on the ground by an FCS team isn't good no matter the spin zone you want to put on it. I think the offense has made huge strides in a year and we finally have a quality QB.
Might be a good bet. The over/under is at 63 points.
 

NoPlayCard

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But Vegas sets the line where they think the betting public will land. They try to set the line as closely as they can to the final line determined by the bettors. It has nothing to do with their (Vegas) perception of the game. Vegas set the line a little higher than it should have been to even up the bets on both sides. More bet on Tech, thus the line moved down. But Vegas sets the line not on what they think the winning margin will be, but on where they think they can even up the money bet by the public on both sides of it. They overshot, and the line moved down.

Vegas would have set the line significantly lower than -20.5, or even -18, had Tech won against Louisville, because the buzz created by that win would have indicated such.
This. Vegas knows that opening with GT +10.5 or something similar would result in 90% of the cash on ole miss. They want it to be as close to 50/50 as possible so they can walk away with the juice no matter the outcome.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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I don't normally start these threads on a sunday afternoon but THIS IS A BIG GAME so I'm starting it now.

Unlike every road game before where I simply watched GT from home, I will actually be in Oxford to cheer on the Jackets! I'm excited and win or lose it's gonna be a fun trip for me and my family.

As for the game itself, my thoughts are that our offense is probably able to put up 25-40 points, but our defense will HAVE to dig their heels in and be better.
Is this the "prediction thread"? At any rate, my thoughts are that there is one critical difference between Tech and Tulane. Tulane's defensive line is far better. Watching the game between the Green Wave and the Rebels it was obvious to my untrained eye that Tulane was able to make Dart make throws before he wanted to. Ole Miss has a pretty pedestrian offensive line too. The strengths of this team are its fine quarterback and outstanding receivers including a tight end who looked to be a man playing with boys. I am thinking that Ole Miss wins and covers solely due to Tech not being able to apply pressure when needed on Dart. Ole Miss has some pretty good running backs as well. Tech's main advantage is being able to move the ball better than Tulane and the Rebels possibly looking ahead to Alabama the following week. Rebels to win and cover barely in an entertaining wide open game.
 

AUFC

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Can't wait to meet all y'all fellow travelers in Oxford this weekend. Go Jackets!
Made it to Tupelo! Got a round in at Tupelo National after arriving and probably heading to Oxford tonight to take in the college town Friday football weekend atmosphere if I can stand another hour of driving. I hear they have some great restaurants there.
 

bke1984

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Flying into Memphis this morning. Should get to Oxford around 1:30. No firm plans other than to walk around the Grove. If anyone has a tailgate spot in there PM me if you want a visitor for a bit.
 

minorityoption

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We’ve played the “they are missing Player A” game before and were beaten by the backup. Ignore the news as a means of relaxing.

Having said that, one could argue we are missing our (or one of) top receiver, too, with Leo Blackburn out along with Chase Lane missing the game. Ole Miss has a younger backup eager to take advantage of an opportunity like any other competitive school.
 
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