GT over/under 5.5 wins in 2024

Over/Under 5.5 Wins

  • Over

    Votes: 187 90.8%

  • Under

    Votes: 19 9.2%
  • Total voters
    206
  • Poll closed .

JacketOff

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I’ve made money taking the over both of these last two years. I intend to do the same this year. I don’t buy into the schedule being too hard talk. It’s the ACC, there’s too much chaos from week to week to say anybody is too tough to beat on any given Saturday (or Thursday night). I also think there’s a very real chance we have the best offense in the conference this year. With even an average defense, maybe even slightly below average, I think we can compete for the conference title.
 
Augusta_Jacket

Augusta_Jacket

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It's an interesting number. My gut says we could go 7-5 this year IF we improve our defense significantly and maintain our offensive output. We would have to run the gamut against winnable opponents (and we never seem to do that) as well as pick up 2-3 upsets along the way to win 7 games.

VMI is a win. If it isn't, we are in real trouble.

Georgia State should be a win, but it's these kinds of games that scare me. With it being a cross town team and our fan bases propensity to not show up for these types of game, this might be the highest attended game of the year in BDS and it might be close to 50% GSU fans in seats.

Syracuse should be a win, but ACC chaos is real.

Duke should be a win, but ACC chaos is real.

VT is a near peer. This game should be a toss up, leaning towards a win.

UNC, based on talent alone, should be a loss, but until they actually beat us, I'll count it as a win.

These are the 6 "easiest games on the schedule, IMO. The next 6 are all games where we could be competitive but we shouldn't be favored to win any of them. We need an upset from at least 1 of these teams, and maybe 2 to beat the 5.5 number, assuming we win the 5 easiest games on our schedule.

Miami, based on talent alone, should be a loss. We've won some big games against them at BDS, and this might be one, but they will also be coming in with a chip on their shoulder after last year. This one leans toward a loss.

NCSU and UL are good teams and well coached. They should be close but lean to losses.

FSU has to reload a lot, but they have some firepower to reload with. Week zero game on a different continent plays in our favor. An FSU with a playoff snub chip on their shoulder does not play in our favor. I see a close game for three quarters before they put it away.

Notre Dame is likely a loss.

uga is likely a loss.
 
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slugboy

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Augusta_Jacket said:
It's an interesting number. My gut says we could go 7-5 this year IF we improve our defense significantly and maintain our offensive output. We would have to run the gamut against winnable opponents (and we never seem to do that) as well as pick up 2-3 upsets along the way to win 7 games.

VMI is a win. If it isn't, we are in real trouble.

Georgia State should be a win, but it's these kinds of games that scare me. With it being a cross town team and our fan bases propensity to not show up for these types of game, this might be the highest attended game of the year in BDS and it might be close to 50% GSU fans in seats.

Syracuse should be a win, but ACC chaos is real.

Duke should be a win, but ACC chaos is real.

VT is a near peer. This game should be a toss up, leaning towards a win.

UNC, based on talent alone, should be a loss, but until they actually beat us, I'll count it as a win.

These are the 6 "easiest games on the schedule, IMO. The next 6 are all games where we could be competitive but we shouldn't be favored to win any of them. We need an upset from at least1 of these teams, and maybe 2 to beet the 5.5 number assuming we win the 5 easiest games on our schedule.

Miami, based on talent alone, should be a loss. We've won some big games against them at BDS, and this might be one, but they will also be coming in with a chip on their shoulder after last year. This one leans toward a loss.

NCSU and UL are good teams and well coached. They should be close but lean to losses.

FSU has to reload a lot, but they have some firepower to reload with. Week zero game on a different continent plays in our favor. An FSU with a playoff snub chip on their shoulder does not play in our favor. I see a close game for three quarters before they put it away.

Notre Dame is likely a loss.

uga is likely a loss.
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Agree on how you break down the opponents

Based on past history, we come out of the “easy six games” with 3-4 wins, and pick up a few wins in the other group.

As much as I enjoyed last season, I think last season’s team wins 5 games against this schedule.

To win 7 games against this schedule, we need to be better than VT and better than Louisville and NCST. We need to be a lot better than last season, and still lucky.

Every ACC coach worth their salary should have the tape of the Clemson and BC games for us, and be ready to attack our front 6 (or 7, if we do something unusual).

Any prediction I make assumes that we fix the defensive front with more than just scheme and technique. We need as big a jump on defense next season as we had on offense. I don’t know enough to make that bet right now.

I think 5.5 is a good number. Key either needs to get us a top 20 offense, where we boatrace, or a massive overhaul of the defense where we find enough players in the post Spring portal—and the latter is risky.

Santucci & company might be a massive upgrade, but our defense might be worse unless we pull in some ballers on defense

I’m really bouncing between 5 and 6 for a forecast
 
Bogey

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I will be ecstatic if we win 8 which I think is possible with Buster/Weinke having a year under their belt together and improvement if our D under Santucci. I figure VMI, GSU, Syracuse, Duke, UNC and VT as very winnable, but allowing us to have a bad day and lose one of these 6. Catching FSU early I am also counting on the win and I figure we will win one of Miami, NCSU, & L'ville.
To win 8, we either need to win all of the first 6, or 2 of the last 3. Doable, but not so easy.
 
stinger78

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Tough schedule. 6-6 again unless the D improves significantly. Ugag, F$U, and ND all certain losses. UNC, Miami, Ville, and NCSU all probable losses, but we pick off 1-2 of them, we always do. That’s 4-5 losses. We lose at least 1 that we should/could win. That’s where the D comes in. Good D, maybe we hold it to 5 losses.
 
forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

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stinger78 said:
Tough schedule. 6-6 again unless the D improves significantly. Ugag, F$U, and ND all certain losses. UNC, Miami, Ville, and NCSU all probable losses, but we pick off 1-2 of them, we always do. That’s 4-5 losses. We lose at least 1 that we should/could win. That’s where the D comes in. Good D, maybe we hold it to 5 losses.
Click to expand...
There are no certain losses, only unlikely wins.
 

bensaysitathome

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In 2023, the offense was good enough to get us 9 wins. If the defense had even been "pretty bad" instead of "awful", we would have beat Lville and Bowling Green. The Ole Miss game would have been in play, too.

I'm not worried about CBF and crew, even against this schedule. The defense will make or break us.
 

WreckinGT

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Seems about right. I lean towards 6 wins as I don't think we have done enough in the transfer portal to sure up the defense, nor do I think we will before next season. Going by percentage guesses.

FSU - 25%, GSU - 90%, Cuse - 60%, VMI - 100%, LVille - 30%, Duke - 70%, UNC - 40%, ND - 20%, VT - 50%, Miami - 40%, NC State - 40%, UGA - 5%

Total: 5.65 wins. Round up to 6. Its a tough schedule.
 

bensaysitathome

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WreckinGT said:
Seems about right. I lean towards 6 wins as I don't think we have done enough in the transfer portal to sure up the defense, nor do I think we will before next season. Going by percentage guesses.

FSU - 25%, GSU - 90%, Cuse - 60%, VMI - 100%, LVille - 30%, Duke - 70%, UNC - 40%, ND - 20%, VT - 50%, Miami - 40%, NC State - 40%, UGA - 5%

Total: 5.65 wins. Round up to 6. Its a tough schedule.
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These percentages feel about right, for now. My thoughts:

-I might give us a small bump vs FSU because we get them early, and that roster will be practically brand new. I'm calling it 35%

- Cuse might be better just because of their quarterback. McCord is the real deal. That's 50/50 for me.

- I'll buy UNC hype when they actually have something to sell. 50/50 at worst, imo.

- ND looked good but was inconsistent last year. Gave tOSU all they could handle, but struggled with a mid Duke team and lost to the worst Clemson team in almost a decade. We don't know what '24 ND looks like yet but I'd guess better than 20%.
 

takethepoints

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slugboy said:
Santucci & company might be a massive upgrade, but our defense might be worse unless we pull in some ballers on defense
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I think having Lockett playing regularly will make a big difference. In limited duty last year he proved a real disrupter.

Also, yes, I think 6 wins again would be a good performance by the team. If they get 7 or 8 I'll be pleasantly surprised.
 
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takethepoints

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bensaysitathome said:
- ND looked good but was inconsistent last year. Gave tOSU all they could handle, but struggled with a mid Duke team and lost to the worst Clemson team in almost a decade. We don't know what '24 ND looks like yet but I'd guess better than 20%.
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Yes to everything but this. They had a great recruiting year in 2023 and Riley Leonard is the real deal. I'm penciling them in to compete for the national championship.
 

bensaysitathome

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takethepoints said:
Yes to everything but this. They had a great recruiting year in 2023 and Riley Leonard is the real deal. I'm penciling them in to compete for the national championship.
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Based on the preseason polls, the media would agree with you. I'm just not convinced Marcus Freeman has it yet. He's a young, likeable guy that will recruit well, but still kind of unproven as a title-contending coach. It wouldn't surprise me to see them in the top 5, but 9-3 wouldn't surprise me either.

I would be curious to see how the committee handles a 3-loss independent with the brand of the Irish.
 
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